What The Metrics Had To Say About Watkins Glen

The world of sports data is constantly changing, with more information available to teams, athletes, and even the common fan that can be used to predict performance trends. NASCAR is no different, and the author of this post has built several analytical metrics to help give race fans a more advanced view of the action on the track—because, as any driver can attest, auto racing isn't always a fair sport.

The following numbers—explained in full detail here—are designed to measure driver performance in various aspects of each race, many of which come from NASCAR’s Loop Data. They are ranked by True Driver Rating (TDR), a variation on NASCAR’s Driver Rating, which incorporates factors such as speed, track position, passing, luck, and equipment strength to best estimate how well each driver performed during an event.

The metrics from Sunday's Go Bowling At the Glen at Watkins Glen International are as shown below:

It's worth noting as a disclaimer that these metrics -- particularly the passing numbers -- can be heavily skewed on road courses by pit strategy. That being said, this week's results seemed to check out, with the drivers who finished first and second also coming in the top two in the metrics, though in reverse order.

Shane van Gisbergen picked up the TDR win despite Chris Buescher passing him on the final lap. The veteran road racer from New Zealand had a stronger Average Running Position than Buescher and held the highest share of fastest laps. However, Buescher did have the largest share of Expected Wins Earned, thanks to leading most of the race's closing stages. Both drivers would have been more than deserving of the win.

Behind them, another road ringer, Michael McDowell, placed third in TDR after coming in seventh on the track, as he ran solidly near the top five all race. Ross Chastain led the most laps and had the best ARP but faded to fourth in the end, which is also where he placed in the metrics, as his passing numbers were less than stellar. Finally, Chase Briscoe was the highest-placing playoff driver both in the results and the metrics, as he had a much-needed strong run to keep his hopes of advancing to the next round alive.

A few more playoff drivers join Briscoe in the top 10, with Atlanta winner Joey Logano sixth and then Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Alex Bowman 7-8-10. It's also worth giving Spire Motorsports a shoutout, as all three of its drivers (Carson Hocevar, Zane Smith, and Corey LaJoie) finished in the top 10 on the track. Because that greatly boosted Spire's Equipment Rating, they placed slightly lower in the metrics, with only Smith cracking the top 10.

Just like in Atlanta, some heavy hitters were rounding out the rear of the field. Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin were all damaged in an accident on the first lap and ran poorly as a result. Blaney's day was over with a 38th-place finish, while Bell and Hamlin lucked out by taking advantage of late chaos to maximize their results.

Watkins Glen set an all-time record for the Cup Series with the 12th different overtime finish of the season, proving just how unpredictable this year has been. For the second week in a row, though, most of the drivers who ran up front still finished there, and Sunday's .717 Fairness Rating backs that up.

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