Dry Weather Continues: Drought Conditions Worsen in Ohio and Pennsylvania

Photo byNational Weather Service

Drought conditions persist as rain remains elusive for Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Dry Spell Deepens Across Ohio and Pennsylvania Amid High Pressure Control

[CLEVELAND] — Issued by the National Weather Service at 3:31 AM EDT on September 17, 2024.

High Pressure Keeps Rain at Bay

A strong high-pressure system is set to dominate the Great Lakes region today through Wednesday, bringing dry and warm conditions to Ohio and Pennsylvania. The remnants of a subtropical low currently positioned near upstate South Carolina are pushing clouds into eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. However, the system's progress is expected to stall due to a ridge of high pressure, effectively trapping the low and keeping its associated precipitation well south of the region.

This high-pressure system will lead to drier conditions, contributing to the gradual worsening of the ongoing drought. While clouds may increase across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, rain is unlikely, with only slight chances of minimal precipitation along the line from Mt. Vernon to south of Meadville. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s today, and slightly cooler temperatures projected for Wednesday.

Short-Term Outlook: Warm and Dry

The high-pressure system will continue to control the weather into the short-term forecast period, which extends through Friday night. Initially, a low-pressure system was anticipated to bring scattered showers by early Thursday, but models now suggest that the high-pressure system will persist, eliminating any chances for precipitation. With continued warmth and lack of rainfall, drought conditions are expected to expand, as the next drought outlook is due for release on Thursday.

Temperatures will remain above average, with highs forecasted to reach the low to mid-80s on both Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 50s, maintaining the warm, dry trend across the region.

Long-Term Forecast: High Pressure Holds

Looking ahead to the long-term period through the weekend, high pressure and an upper-level ridge are expected to keep the area dry, offering no respite from drought conditions. The dry spell may continue until early next week, with a possible cold front moving northeast across the area by Monday, which could finally bring some showers. However, the timing and impact of this front remain uncertain, with only slight chances of precipitation forecasted at this time.

Highs will continue in the low to mid-80s, with nighttime temperatures falling into the mid to upper 50s.

Aviation and Marine Conditions

Aviation conditions will remain favorable with VFR (Visual Flight Rules) expected through Saturday. Some mid-to-high-level clouds will drift over the region, particularly impacting airports such as KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. Light winds will generally be from the southeast, switching to northeasterly near the lakeshore due to lake breezes.

On Lake Erie, calm marine conditions will prevail under the influence of high pressure, with winds generally from the southeast shifting to the northeast by Thursday and persisting through the weekend. Waves will remain modest, ranging from 1 to 2 feet, with localized increases to 3 feet during onshore flows.

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