Could the Twins blow their playoff spot? How it's all going wrong for Minnesota as wild-card race tightens

For the Minnesota Twins , Monday night was the collapse within the collapse -- the inception collapse. Minnesota blew a three-run lead to the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field ( CLE 4, MIN 3 ) and lost for the 18th time in their last 27 games. The Twins still sit in the third AL wild-card spot, though their lead is down to 1 1/2 games, the smallest since July 23.

"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking," Twins ace Pablo López said after allowing two runs in 6 1/3 innings in Monday's loss ( via MLB.com ). "Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."

The surging Detroit Tigers -- 23-10 in their last 33 games after Monday's four-run comeback ( DET 7, KC 6 ) -- are two behind the Twins in the loss column, though Minnesota has the tiebreaker , so it's really more like a three-game lead. The Seattle Mariners are only two back as well, but again, the Twins have the tiebreaker. Catching the team that doesn't win the AL East, whoever it ends up being, for the top wild-card spot is unlikely at this point. For the Twins, the focus is on holding off the Tigers and Mariners.

According to FanGraphs , Minnesota's postseason odds sit at a healthy 76.4%, though they were 95.4% as recently as Sept. 5, and this is the time of year when the needle can move a lot in a short period of time. The Twins have exhausted much of their cushion and are, essentially, playing postseason games now. These next two weeks will define their season.

What's going wrong with the Twins? Well, everything, really, but here's a closer look at the things that have put Minnesota in a position where they have to sweat the wild-card standings.

The bullpen is letting leads get away

Five times in these last 18 losses, the Twins had the lead in the seventh inning or later, and on two other occasions the score was tied in the seventh inning or later. That includes Monday night, when Griffin Jax surrendered the game-winning two-run home run to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. A devastating swing for the Twins, this was:

"It's pretty heartbreaking," Jax said about blowing Monday's game ( via MLB.com ).

The Twins went 70-53 to start the season and, in those 123 games, their bullpen pitched to a 3.84 ERA (12th in baseball) and was tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41). In the 27 games since, the bullpen has a 5.47 ERA (28th in baseball) and is dead last with minus-2.75 win probability added. It is not close either:

30. Minnesota Twins: minus-2.75 bullpen win probability since Aug. 18
29. Pittsburgh Pirates : minus-1.28
28. Toronto Blue Jays : minus-1.16

Minnesota's bullpen has been, by far, the worst in baseball during this 27-game collapse. In a postseason race this late in the season, blown late-inning leads are an absolute killer. They hurt you in the standings and they're demoralizing. I know baseball players are conditioned to have short memories, but geez, so many blown leads in such a short period of time is tough .

Monday was the Twins' 17th game in the last 18 days and Jax suggested they're worn down -- "We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," he said ( via The Athletic ). I'm not sure what to say to that other than they better find a second wind and fast. It's mid-September. Every pitching staff is on fumes. Cleveland's relievers have made 554 appearances, 28 more than any other team, yet their bullpen managed to throw 6 1/3 scoreless innings Monday. Minnesota's relief crew just needs to be better.

The rotation behind López has stunk

The Twins entered the season with questionable rotation depth after Sonny Gray (and Kenta Maeda ) left as a free agent and they replaced him with no one in particular, but Simeon Woods Richardson really stepped up earlier this year, particularly once Chris Paddack and Joe Ryan went down with long-term injuries. He had a 3.27 ERA in his first 17 starts.

Lately though, it's been a real slog, both for Woods Richardson and the rotation has a whole. Woods Richardson has pitched to a 5.85 ERA in his last nine starts and six times in those nine starts he failed to complete five innings. That includes each of his last four starts, which ties back into the bullpen being gassed. The rotation work has been inadequate of late:

More baserunners, fewer innings, more blowouts. López has been excellent lately. He has a 1.11 ERA during the team's rough 27-game stretch and four times in six starts he allowed zero earned runs. The rest of the rotation has a 6.07 ERA and is averaging 4.38 innings per start in these last 27 games. In terms of performance, it's an ace (López) and a bunch of No. 6-7 starters right now.

Minnesota claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles on Monday and, if nothing else, he'll give the Twins another body capable of pitching multiple innings. Irvin made 16 starts and nine relief appearances with the O's and had a 4.86 ERA in 107 1/3 innings, but with a taxed bullpen and a shaky rotation, he's a worthwhile roll of the dice. Such is the state of Twins pitching at the moment.

"We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have?" Twins POBO Derek Falvey said about claiming Irvin ( via the Minnesota Star Tribune ). "He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."

Too many hitters are underperforming

Monday was the sixth time in the last 10 games, and the 12th time in the last 27 games, the Twins failed to score more than three runs. As a team, they're hitting .236/.296/.381 during his 27-game slide, which is more or less what Kyle Farmer is hitting this year (.225/.302/.377). Farmer's been great lately (.955 OPS in the second half)! But with all due respect, a lineup of Kyle Farmers can only take you so far.

"If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said after Monday's loss ( via MLB.com ), during which Minnesota left multiple runners on base four times in the first six innings. "We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."

Byron Buxton (hip) and Carlos Correa (foot) returned from lengthy absences within the last week or so, and Max Kepler (knee) is expected to return soon, but not having them the last few weeks has been a blow. More than a few other lineup mainstays have really struggled in recent weeks too, even going back before this 27-game skid.

We've all been aching to see what healthy Royce Lewis could do with consistent playing time and it turns out not much? I don't think Lewis is a true talent 91 OPS+ hitter -- he's gonna mash and be one of the best players in the game in the long run -- but the fact of the matter is he's been a drain on the offense the last few weeks. Castro, Jeffers, and Miranda too. That's nearly half the lineup.

The thing is, the Twins have been great situationally during this 27-game slide. They're hitting .274/.333/.443 with runners on base, .283/.338/.492 with runners in scoring position and .311/.346/.527 in high leverage situations. The Twins are doing all the clutch things you want a team to do at the plate even while losing 18 times in their last 27 games.

Part of the problem is Minnesota has a .272 on-base percentage with the bases empty in those 27 games, fourth worst in the game, so they aren't starting many rallies. Also, timing and sequencing are everything. The Twins have hit 25 home runs in their last 27 games and 14 have been solo shots. A single then a homer is better than a homer then a single, you know?

Buxton and Correa returned recently and are a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month. Getting them back and in the lineup full-time, and getting others like Castro and Lewis to perform closer to expectations than their second-half numbers, would go a long way to improving the lineup. More offense equals more breathing room for a shaky pitching staff.

In short, the Twins need better work from their offense, their starting pitchers, and their bullpen. Simple. It's been a bad few weeks -- a really bad few weeks -- but the Twins are still in a postseason spot and they control their own destiny. This late in the season, it's on the players on the team to be better. The time to make trades and promote prospects is over.

"We have to find ourselves as a team," Baldelli said recently ( via MLB.com ). "We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."