For all intents and purposes, the American Cy Young Award is already signed, sealed, and delivered, right to Motown’s own, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.
And maybe it should be.
Skubal is fantastic.
As Detroit’s boys of summer threaten to work into the autumn with a thrilling late-season run — are these guys fun, or what? — he is the fire at the front of an otherwise smoke-and-mirrors pitching staff.
Skubal, a ninth-round treasure in the 2018 draft, is 16-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 214 strikeouts in 180 innings.
He is easily the best starter in the AL, and, because the Cy Young Award pretty much always goes to a starter, the oddsmakers have him as a mortal lock to earn the honor. (Skubal is a -5000 favorite, per BetMGM, meaning a $50 bet on him would net you a $1 gain.)
The only outcome more guaranteed is ... the Guardians holding on to a ninth-inning lead.
But should it be?
That’s another question, and a good one, because, well, the guy in Cleveland saving all those games isn’t just pretty good himself.
He is enjoying such a historic season that he ought to be forcing the 30 baseball writers who vote for the AL Cy Young to reconsider the standard criteria.
That’s no knock on Skubal, who would be a perfectly deserving winner.
It’s a credit to Emmanuel Clase, the flame-throwing sensation anchoring the best bullpen in the game.
We can argue about the relative value of a starter vs. a closer, and that’s fair.
There’s a reason elite starters make significantly more money than relievers. They pitch way more innings and are seen as more important pieces. A reliever hasn’t won the Cy Young Award since Eric Gagne — the Dodgers star who may or may not have been more juiced than a Tropicana factory — took home the NL honor in 2003.
But …
Let’s not diminish the impact of the pitchers throwing the highest-leverage innings almost every other night.
A couple questions: Where would the first-place Guardians be without Clase’s club-record-matching 46 saves, including 33 in a row (33!)? And, Tigers fans, who would you have rather had on those great Jim Leyland teams? Another big-time starter? Or a lockdown closer? (Be honest!)
Forget the starter vs. reliever debate. If the objective of the Cy Young Award is — as stated — to identify the best pitcher in baseball, I dare say this season it is Clase.
Put another way, Clase is even more dominant in his domain than Skubal is in his.
As terrific as Skubal has pitched, we see this kind of brilliance most years.
Take the AL Cy Young Award winners from the past half-dozen full seasons. Five of them had comparable or better years: Cleveland’s Corey Kluber in 2017 (18-4, 2.25 ERA), Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell in 2018 (21-5, 1.89 ERA), Houston’s Justin Verlander in 2019 (21-6, 2.56 ERA), Verlander in 2022 (18-5, 1.74 ERA), and New York’s Gerrit Cole in 2023 (15-4, 2.63 ERA).
Skubal is having a great season.
Clase is having a great season with little precedent.
His 0.65 ERA would be the fourth-lowest in a season of at least 50 innings pitched in baseball history. Former Orioles closer Zach Britton has the record, registering a 0.54 ERA in 67 innings in 2016. Clase has already thrown 69 ⅓ innings.
Consider this blind resume comparison:
Player A: 55 saves, 1.20 ERA, 77 games, 0.69 WHIP, 3.7 WAR.
Player B: 51 saves, 1.91 ERA, 69 games, 0.91 WHIP, 2.9 WAR.
Player C: 43 saves, 1.38 ERA, 71 games, 0.87 WHIP, 4.0 WAR.
Player D : 46 saves, 0.65 ERA, 69 games, 0.65 WHIP, 4.3 WAR.
Well, Player A is Gagne from his famed ‘03 season.
Player B is Dennis Eckersley from his Cy Young-winning 1992 season. He remains the last AL relief pitcher to win the award.
Player C is Mariano Rivera from 2005, which — at least by the Cy Young vote — was the greatest season in the career of the greatest-ever closer. He was the runner-up to Bartolo Colon, then with the Angels.
And Player D is Clase … this season.
Look at those numbers again, and tell me this race is over.
We’ll see what happens the final two weeks of the regular season, but, so far, Clase is not just in a class of his own among relievers. He might be in a different school district.
At least, the Cy Young race should be as wide open as it is perceived to be closed.
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