Despite inconsistent run support, Paul Skenes among pitchers projected to be on All-MLB team

Since 2019, Major League Baseball has put together an All-MLB team. On Tuesday, MLB.com posted a projection of who may make this year’s squad. Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes is on it.

The 22-year-old pitcher made his big league debut on May 11 at PNC Park. Since then, the 2023 No. 1 overall pick has lived up to the hype. In his first season, the hard-throwing right-hander is 10-3 with a 2.07 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.98. Skenes has posted 158 strikeouts and only 32 walks over 126 innings.

If Skenes’ numbers would qualify (he has just 126 MLB innings under his belt this year), his ERA would lead MLB and his WHIP would be fourth in the league. At 11.29, his strikeouts per nine innings trails only Atlanta’s Chris Sale. His batting average against (.204) is tied for sixth-best.

So Skenes has a strong case to make the team. He is mentioned as a first-teamer along with Sale, Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo of Kansas City.

All of those other pitchers have at least 16 wins. Sale leads MLB with 17. Skenes’ win total could be higher if he had been called up earlier and if he had gotten more consistent run support.

Thus far, Skenes has 21 starts as a Pirate. In five of those games, the Pirates have plated between seven and 14 runs. However, the Pirates have also scored two or fewer runs seven times in Skenes’ starts. The club has also endured five losses when Skenes has exited a start while giving up two or fewer runs.

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In his most recent outing, the Bucs lost a 4-0 shutout in St. Louis when Skenes left the game trailing 1-0 after allowing just one run in six innings at Busch Stadium. He struck out seven Cardinals and walked only one batter.

Heading into that appearance, Skenes’ 2.10 ERA was third-best among pitchers over their first 20 career starts since earned runs became a stat in 1913. Only Montreal’s Steve Rogers (1.90 in 1973-74) and Hideo Nomo (2.08 in 1995) of the L.A. Dodgers were better.

In three starts against the Cardinals this year, Skenes has posted a 1.31 ERA with a 23:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 innings. Yet he is 0-2 against them.

In other words, in his first season in Pittsburgh, Skenes is getting the full Buccos experience.

Unless he gets shut down, Skenes will probably make two more starts, the last of which might be in Yankee Stadium during the final series of the season.

As of the start of this week, DraftKings had Skenes at plus-3000 to win the National League Cy Young, third on their board behind Sale and Wheeler. Skenes is currently second on the DraftKings board in N.L. Rookie of the Year odds at plus-310 behind minus-600 favorite Jackson Merrill (OF, San Diego).

Should Skenes end up making the All-MLB list, he would be the first Pirate to receive the honor. The team will be announced at the end of the season.