<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1PT6aR_0vai3vFP00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1PT6aR_0vai3vFP00" width="1919" height="1079" ><figcaption>Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles will travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints, which will be the first game for Hurts against the Black and Gold since a game played in Philly on Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021. AP PHOTO</figcaption></figure>Two weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and it has been the roughest start for this column since we started it back in 2014. Sure, 8-8 against the spread (3-2 in best bets) in Week 2 wasn’t horrible, but it wasn’t good, either, after a horrendous Week 1.But since we have always been about trends, we like the one that says we were five wins better. Do it again, and we’re 13-3. See what we did there?OK, I have wasted enough keystrokes on this intro, so I will leave you with this before we get started: The top four picks this week might be the best value plays we have had over the first 3 weeks of the season so far, and a 4-1 or 5-0 would right the ship in a hurry and put us above .500.NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of Tuesday) are provided by DraftKings. Home team is listed in CAPS.<h2>WEEK 3: THE TOP 5 BEST BETS</h2>1, Green Bay (+3) over TENNESSEE / Sunday at noonIt’s hard to believe that the Packers likely will go into an interconference game as an underdog for the eighth consecutive time, but unless Jordan Love suddenly becomes available, it will be the case.Green Bay has won straight up and covered in four of the previous seven, but that’s not the reason why this is my play of the young season thus far. Even with Malik Willis at quarterback, my power ratings say not only should the Packers be favored here, but that this spread is off by six points.Vegas (and the sharps) continue to show love to the Titans for some unknown reason – maybe it is because they have unduly hated on them too much the past three or four seasons.Some can say they’ll never bet on Willis, but Will Levis is worse. Last week, by QBR, Willis was No. 4 in the NFL behind only Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, while for the season, Levis is ahead of only Deshaun Watson, Caleb Williams and Bryce Young.Can Willis get revenge on the team that cut him less than a month ago? Even if he is just “meh,” look for Josh Jacobs to nab 25-30 carries in a low-scoring affair on an extremely hot day in Nashville.Score: Packers 19, Titans 13 (Total: Under 36.5)2, CLEVELAND (-6) over NY Giants / Sunday at noonI get the Browns have been far from impressive in the opening 2 weeks, but someone is going to have to explain this line. This is what I would have made it if the game were being played in the Meadowlands.But it’s in the Dawg Pound, and this looks like a gift. Besides the fact I don’t see the G-Men doing anything against this defense, it seems like a perfect spot for Deshaun Watson to get well against the 26th-ranked D in the NFL.Also, Cleveland has covered in 13 of their past 20 games in games against the NFC and pushed another, and they can’t wait to give the home crowd something to cheer about after being blasted by Dallas in Week 1.Score: Browns 27, Giants 11 (Total: Under 38.5)3, Philadelphia (+2.5) over NEW ORLEANS / Sunday at noon<div style="position:relative;width:100%; height:0; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nJaqIrprp00?si=7NAlxUcK4PaOJSww" frameborder="0" style="width:100%; height:100%;top:0; left:0; position:absolute"></iframe></div>I am sorry, Who Dats: I tried to keep this game out of my best bets, but bias is set aside when handicapping. The fact is this line is completely out of whack, and either the books are way overcompensating for the love that is coming in for the Saints and are scared because of the money they have lost the past two weeks, or the sharps have found a new team to goo-goo, ga-ga over.A week ago, Philly was a 3½-point favorite, and it was -2½ as recently as Monday afternoon. By Tuesday morning, it had moved five points toward New Orleans in 24 hours. Barring an injury to a quarterback or star running back, this just doesn’t happen.Not only that, Dennis Allen’s defenses haven’t done well against mobile quarterbacks since something like 2000 when he was a secondary coach at the University of Tulsa. (OK, I might be exaggerating. Or I might not be.)While the Saints were able to exploit the Cowboys lack of a running game, this is a far different matchup against the Eagles. I am not saying I don’t believe in the offense, but I am saying Philly has an equally challenging offense to stop. And a line change like that suggests all the value is on the visitors.Looks like I will have another Monday full of apologies if I get this one wrong (again).Side note: If this total gets to 50 (and it might), it would be the first time the Saints played in a game with an over/under that high since Drew Brees retired.Score: Eagles 31, Saints 27 (Total: Over 49.5)4, DALLAS (+1) over Baltimore / Sunday at 3:25 p.m.After this one is over, irrational fans will be calling for the head of one of these coaches. (Some already are – especially in Baltimore.) When it comes down to it, the Ravens lost last week at home as a near double-digit favorite because they were unprepared and haven’t learned Lamar Jackson can’t do everything by himself.Meanwhile, the Cowboys got blown out because it seemed they spent all week reading press clippings about how good they were. They’ll be as focused as ever here, and I am not sure the Ravens can stop this passing attack.In fact, through two weeks, Baltimore is the worst team in the league in passing yards allowed per game (257).We have heard about how the Saints ended Dallas’ 16-game home winning streak, but to lose this one would put Star Head fans in a tizzy. The Cowboys haven’t lost consecutive games at Jerry World since their 6-10 season of 2020 and haven’t lost two games in a row at home in back-to-back weeks since 2017.Score: Cowboys 30, Ravens 26 (Total: Over 48.5)5, NY JETS (-6.5) over New England / Thursday at 7:15This would have been higher on the list had it not bucked one humongous trend of the Patriots winning straight up in 15 of the past 16 matchups, 18 of 20 and 23 of 26. The fact the Jets won the last one to break the 8-year drought allowed me to sneak this in the last spot.No question the Patriots have played much better than I expected to start the season, but I still believe the Jets will be a contender in the AFC East, and they finally get to play at home. Also, the fact the Patriots allowed 312 passing yards last week has me thinking Aaron Rodgers should have a good night.Lastly, my power ratings have this as Jets -9 (I know that is an outlier), which makes for big-time value from my side.Score: Jets 26, Patriots 10 (Total: Under 38.5)<h2>THE REST OF THE SLATE</h2>Sunday at noonTAMPA BAY (-6.5) 22, Denver 14 (Under 39.5)Houston 23, MINNESOTA (+2.5) 22 (Under 46)INDIANAPOLIS (-1) 24, Chicago 20 (Over 43.5)PITTSBURGH (-1.5) 19, LA Chargers 17 (Over 35.5)Sunday at 3:05 p.m.LAS VEGAS 20, Carolina (+5.5) 17 (Under 41)Note: Upset alert. Yeah, yeah, I didn’t learn my lesson from last week, and I swore I wouldn’t pick the Panthers again any time soon. But although it is with two (way) lesser teams, this is in the same category as I had Cincy-KC last week. Panthers should get a boost from Andy Dalton starting, and Raiders will be flying high after Ravens win. Stay away from this in Survivor pools.SEATTLE 28, Miami (+4.5) 26 (Over 41)Note: Another upset alert I am not quite ready to pick. I get the whole situation in Miami, but they have enough talent to win this one against a very average football team. This line is way too skewed toward the Seahawks. It just missed making best bets.Sunday at 3:25 p.m.San Francisco 27, LA RAMS (+7) 21 (Over 43)Detroit (-2.5) 34, ARIZONA 30 (Over 52.5)Sunday at 7:20 p.m.KANSAS CITY 23, Atlanta 20 (+3.5 – another potential upset alert) (Under 46.5)Monday at 6:30 p.m.Jacksonville (+5) 28, BUFFALO 26 (Over 45.5)Note: Despite the fact this goes against my power ratings, I am making this the upset of the week, as the Jaguars have fared well against Josh Allen and are as desperate as any team not named the Baltimore Ravens._____________________<h2>HOW WE DOIN?</h2>Note: TIES ARE NOT COUNTED IN MY RECORD, which could result in a different total of games in the “straight up” and “against the spread” categories, as well as with totals.<h2>AGAINST THE SPREAD</h2>Week 2 best bets: 3-2; Season 4-6 (.400). Week 2 all picks: 8-8; Season 11-19 (.367).<h2>STRAIGHT UP (no spread)</h2>Week 2: 9-7. Season: 19-13 (.594).<h2>OVER/UNDER TOTALS</h2>Week 2: 8-7. Season: 15-15 (.500).<h2>SAINTS PICKS</h2>Week 2 pick: Cowboys 26, Saints 19. (Actual: Saints 44, Cowboys 19.) Straight up: L, 1-1. Against spread (Cowboys -6.5): L, 0-2. Total (under 45.5): L, 0-2.(click on week to view)Week 2: 3-2 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 9-7 straight up; 8-7 over/undersWeek 1: 1-3 best bets; 3-11 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 7-8 over/unders</div></body>

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Derry’s Week 3 NFL Picks: Saints continue insanity vs. Eagles? Cowboys underdog vs. Ravens?

Two weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and it has been the roughest start for this column since we started it back in 2014. Sure, 8-8 against the spread (3-2 in best bets) in Week 2 wasn’t horrible, but it wasn’t good, either, after a horrendous Week 1.

Derry’s Week 3 NFL Picks: Saints continue insanity vs. Eagles? Cowboys underdog vs. Ravens?

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