16 things to know about this year’s elections as early voting gets underway in Virginia
By Dwayne Yancey,
15 days ago
Today, we turn to Théoden, the King of Rohan in “Lord of the Rings,” and his famous words as the Battle of Helm Deep got underway:
King Théoden’s famous line in “Lord of the Rings.”
Théoden was pretty grim about the matter. The orcs on the other side of the gates seemed pretty excited, though. You can decide who’s who in this analogy. Either way, voting in Virginia begins Friday. In old-fashioned political time, it’s 6 a.m. on Election Day already. Unless you’re one of our early-morning readers, somebody right now is already ahead in Virginia — although we won’t know who until the votes are actually counted on Nov. 5. This reminds me of the opening chapter of one of the best political books ever written, “The Making of the President 1960” by Theodore White, which describes how, due to the voting patterns of that era, Richard Nixon led for most of Election Day until a final wave of voters pushed John Kennedy over the top in the last hours of voting.
If you want to see who’s on your local ballot, or look up other election-related deadlines, see our Voter Guide . We’ve sent questionnaires to all 500-plus candidates running across Southwest and Southside, as well as the Senate and congressional candidates across the state, and posted their replies in the Voter Guide. Many have replied; many haven’t. If you’re a candidate, you can still reply to the link we sent to the email address on file for you with the State Board of Elections. If you need technical help, contact elections@cardinalnews.org .
With that preface, here are 16 things to know about this year’s election.
1. Virginia is tied with Minnesota and South Dakota for the earliest voting date
Minnesota and South Dakota also open early voting on Friday. Vermont starts Saturday and Illinois next week, on Sept. 26. Other states don’t begin early voting until October, with California, Montana and Nebraska on Oct. 7 and Indiana, Ohio and Wyoming on Oct. 8. A few states have more fluid deadlines. Oregon, which conducts elections by mail, sets Sept. 23 as the date when localities can start mailing out ballots. Different counties in Pennsylvania start sending out mail ballots on different dates. The earliest appears to be Sept. 30, but some won’t send theirs out until sometime in October. North Dakota also has different dates for each locality.
You’ll notice that this is a mix of states that range from solidly Democratic to solidly Republican and some in between. That’s how ubiquitous early voting has become. Every state now has some form of early voting with the exceptions of Mississippi and New Hampshire, according to Ballotpedia . Some Republicans in Virginia would like to see the state reduce its early voting period on the grounds that it stresses out small localities to staff election offices throughout the fall; a few would like to see it eliminated altogether.
2. Virginians will have the most presidential choices in 16 years
Six presidential candidates will be listed on the ballot. Besides Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the ballot also includes Claude De la Cruz of the Party of Socialism and Liberation, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein and independent Cornel West.
That’s not unusual: The last time that only a Democrat and Republican were on Virginia’s presidential ballot was 1928 with Herbert Hoover and Al Smith. However, this is the most crowded ballot since 2008, when there were six candidates.
Libertarians have missed the state’s ballot only once. The most successful Libertarian presidential candidate in Virginia was Gary Johnson, who took 3.0% of the vote in 2016. Jo Jorgensen took 1.5% of the vote four years ago. Otherwise, the Libertarian share in a presidential race has never hit 1%.
Stein was on the ballot in 2016 and took 0.7% of the vote.
3. Virginia will elect at least three new U.S. House members
All 11 congressional seats in Virginia are contested, so in theory, all 11 could change although in practice most won’t. Three are open seats. Democrat Abigail Spanberger is retiring in the 7th District to run for governor next year, Democrat Jennifer Wexton is retiring in the 10th District for health reasons, and Republican Bob Good was forcibly retired by voters in the 5th District GOP primary.
Of those three open seats, the 7th should be the closest and will be watched nationally because a majority for either party could run through that district, wedged between Northern Virginia’s outer suburbs and the outer reaches of the Richmond metro area. The candidates there are Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman. By contrast, the 5th and 10th have more distinct partisan leans, the former toward Republicans, the latter toward Democrats.
Meanwhile, the 2nd District in Hampton Roads historically has been a swing district, so the contest between Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans and Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal is also drawing national attention.
4. Virginia’s congressional delegation could become more diverse
If Democrat Suhas Subramanyam wins his 10th District race, or if Republican Hung Cao wins the Senate race, either or both would become the state’s first congressional representatives of Asian heritage. Subramanyam already occupies a niche in Virginia history: In 2019, the Texas native became the first person of Indian-American heritage and the first Hindu elected to the General Assembly. Cao was a childhood refugee from Vietnam.
5. Virginians will vote on a state constitutional amendment
It’s a minor one, although it may not be minor to those affected. The state currently has a property tax exemption for the spouses of service members killed in action. This amendment, if approved, would extend that exemption to the spouses of service members killed in the line of duty. The technical difference: This would bring in spouses of those killed in certain terrorist attacks, such as the shooting at the Fort Hood military base in Texas. The proposed amendment passed the General Assembly unanimously and now goes to voters.
Roanoke’s mayoral candidates in 2024. From left: Democrat Joe Cobb, independent Stephanie Moon Reynolds, Republican David Bowers.
6. Roanoke’s mayoral race will make history
We just don’t know what kind of history yet. If Democrat Joe Cobb wins, he’ll be the city’s first openly gay mayor. If independent Stephanie Moon Reynolds wins, she’d be the city’s first female mayor. If Republican David Bowers wins, he’d make history in several ways. He’d be in line to become the city’s longest-serving mayor. Noel Taylor served just under 17 years. Bowers has served previously as mayor for 16 years, just not consecutively. Bowers served eight years from 1992 to 2000 and then another eight years from 2008 to 2016. Sylvester Seifert also served two non-consecutive stints as mayor — for three months in 1912, then from 1930 to 1934 — but no one has had three separate turns in the mayor’s chair.
7. Roanoke could see a new majority installed on the city council
Three seats on the city council are available, and none of the candidates running are incumbents, so the city is guaranteed three new members on its seven-member council. If Bowers wins, he’d count as a new member, so that would be four new members. If Cobb wins the mayorship, he’d give up his regular council seat, so that would set in motion a special election to fill that term, and presumably open the way for a fourth new member. Moon Reynolds is on the council now, but she’s forgoing reelection to run for mayor, so if she wins, then the number of new members would stay at three.
8. Lynchburg will have its first November elections for ward seats on the city council
Virginia’s municipal elections historically were in May, but recent legislation by the General Assembly moved them to November as a way to boost voter participation. This also has the political effect of helping Democrats in many localities because city elections are now on the same ballot as more partisan races — in this case, the most partisan one of all, a presidential election. Lynchburg, more conservative than most cities, could be an exception.
Lynchburg’s three at-large seats on the city council were chosen in a November election in 2022, but this will be the first time that its four ward seats will be elected in November. Three of those wards have clear partisan leanings: Ward 2 for Democrats, Wards 3 and 4 for Republicans. The political action is in Ward 1, where Maryjane Dolan (elected as an independent but often identified as a Democrat) is retiring and there’s a three-way race to succeed her. The outcome of that race could change the balance of power on an often-fractious Lynchburg City Council. Voters can sort that out. However, there will be a lot more of those voters than ever before. Four years ago, Ward I had just 3,869 voters in a May election, and that figure was higher than at any time in the previous 16 years. It’s hard to tell how many people in that ward voted in that year’s presidential election because early votes that year were counted as part of a central absentee precinct and not attributed to their home precincts, which makes analysis impossible. However, in 2016, Ward I had 9,365 voters in the presidential election. And we know Lynchburg overall had more voters in 2020 and, given some population growth in the Hill City, this year could have more — so it’s likely that 2.5 times as many people will vote in the Ward I race this fall than ever before.
9. Salem could see a Republican majority on its city council
Salem has long had a tradition where candidates run as independents. Hunter Holliday broke with that tradition in 2022; he ran as a Republican and won. This year council member Jim Wallace and former council member John Saunders are both running as Republicans. If they win, that would mean three of the five council members would have been elected under the GOP banner.
A historical irony: One of the things that drove Salem to become an independent city in 1967, essentially seceding from Roanoke County, was that Republicans had just swept local elections in Roanoke County.
10. Danville could elect its first woman to the city council in 14 years
Danville is the largest city in Virginia without a woman on its council. The last woman on Danville City Council was Ruby Archie, who served from 1994 until her death in 2010. Danville has five council seats available on the ballot. Of the nine candidates, four are women.
You can now sign up to attend one of our candidate forums that we will be hosting in some of the contested local races. While attendance is free, registration is required due to limited seating.
Here’s the schedule with links on how to register:
12. Alleghany County, Covington, Lexington and Southampton County will have their first-ever school board elections
In 2022, voters in those four localities approved referendums to convert from an appointed school board to an elected one. Those first elections are happening this year, with elections for the other seats being phased in over time as staggered terms expire.
Lexington will see the most immediate change. Three of the five seats are on the ballot this year; Alleghany and Southampton just have one seat apiece on the ballot.
Of the current members holding those three seats in Lexington, two are retiring and one is running for election. In all, there are four candidates. So far, none have responded to Cardinal’s election questionnaire, but if any do, you will be able to find their answers here.
Covington is a curiosity. No candidates filed for its first school board election so no one is listed on the ballot; although, Jay Woodson, a former school board member, is now mounting a write-in campaign. That brings us to …
13. Many small towns don’t have enough candidates
In some places, it’s considered impolite to put your name on the ballot; that’s seen as overreaching. In others, it’s simply hard to recruit enough candidates — in which case, write-in votes determine who makes it onto council. In one town — Clinchport in Scott County — there are no candidates on the ballot. Everyone there traditionally runs as a write-in.
14. Other towns, though, have lots of candidates
If we measure democracy by the number of choices, then democracy is definitely alive and well in some places. Clincho and Saltville each have four candidates for mayor. Marion has five.
You can find all the local candidates listed in our Voter Guide , along with any responses they made to our questionnaire. For those who haven’t responded, you still can.
15. Petersburg will vote on a casino
The most closely watched local election this year will be the referendum in Petersburg on whether to allow a casino. There’s been a political struggle over whether Richmond or Petersburg will get a casino. Richmond has voted down a casino twice now, which opened the way for Petersburg to hold a referendum. (The actual politics involved could fill three volumes like “Lord of the Rings,” so consider this the very short version.) Virginia already has casinos in Bristol, Danville and Portsmouth with one in the works in Norfolk.
16. These elections could trigger one more
If Republican John McGuire wins the 5th Congressional District race, he’ll have to give up his state Senate seat. That would trigger a special election, likely in mid-December or early January. That district, which stretches from Appomattox County to Hanover County, is solidly Republican, and already at least four Republicans have expressed interest in the seat: Louisa County Supervisor Duane Adams, former state Sen. Amanda Chase, Powhatan County GOP activist Jean Gammon and former Chase staffer Shayne Snavely.
In Virginia, we have elections every year, so in some ways, this year is just a warm-up for the main event next year: electing a new governor.
How often does weather interfere with Election Day voting?
One of the arguments for early voting is that we shouldn’t put one-day turnout at risk of being washed out by weather. What does history tell us about the likelihood of rain on November 5? I turned to Cardinal weather journalist Kevin Myatt to answer that question. See what he has to say in this week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. I also write about:
Who voters are most curious about, based on who they’re searching for in our Voter Guide.
Why you might want to be skeptical of the latest presidential poll in Virginia.
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