Colorado vs. Baylor: Coach Prime’s Buffaloes Look to Knock Off Bears in Return to Big 12

Stakes are high for both Colorado and Baylor on Saturday night in Boulder. Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes want to get off to a fast start in Big 12 play, as they return to their former conference after the breakup of the Pac-12. Baylor’s Dave Aranda has faced hot seat concerns after back-to-back losing seasons, including last year’s 3-9 mark.

Both teams are 2-1 entering Saturday’s game. Colorado were outclasses at Nebraska in Week 2, but rebounded for a decisive 28-9 win at Colorado State last week. Baylor has taken a similar path so far, losing to Big 12 favorite Utah in Week 2, 23-12, before blowing out Air Force to get back in the win column in Week 3.

Colorado owns a 9-7 all-time record against Baylor. The two teams were conference foes from 1996-2010, before Colorado left for the Pac-12. Baylor won the last game between the two in 2010, the fall before Colorado’s departure.

Colorado vs. Baylor

Location: Folsom Field in Boulder, Co.
Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 21 at 8 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Spread: Colorado -2
Over/Under: 53.5
Announcers: Mike Couzens,Max Starks and Mike Peasley

Why Colorado Will Win

This team is far from perfect, but it has some of the best top-end talent in college football. Travis Hunter looks better than ever, and should be a true factor in the Heisman race if Colorado can put some wins on the board. Shedeur Sanders has taken a step forward from his impressive 2023 season. While it is clear that the Buffaloes want to throw the ball as much as possible, running back Micah Welch offered a bit of a running threat for the Buffaloes in his first action of the year, going for 65 yards on nine carries. Colorado ran for over 100 yards as a team for the first time since its overtime loss to Stanford on Oct. 13 last season. Sanders is the face of the offense, but the Buffaloes need to provide some threat on the ground to keep opposing defenses honest, especially against a Bears team that is vulnerable to the run but has totally shut down the pass.

• Also see: College Football Picks: Expert Predictions for Every Game in Week 4

Why Baylor Will Win

Head coach Dave Aranda has has a rough few seasons, but he is known as one of the better defensive coaches in the country. So far this season, Baylor has allowed just 4.9 yards per pass attempt and the fewest yards per game through the air of any FBS program. Those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt considering two games came against Tarleton State, a down Air Force and Utah with a banged up Cam Rising, but they’re impressive nevertheless. Colorado showed more willingness to run the ball against Colorado State, but they had that game well in hand, and they still called 30 more passes than runs. That could play into the Bears’ hands. Baylor’s offense will be challenging to prepare for, as it is unclear whether dual-threat QB Dequann Finn or pocket passer Sawyer Robertson will get the nod. Finn entered the year as starter after an impressive tenure at Toledo, but struggled early on and missed the Air Force game with injury. Robertson shined in his absence, and Aranda has expressed confidence in both quarterbacks. The forecast for the game also calls for potential rain. While the wind isn’t expected to be a serious factor, if the conditions get rough, that should favor a Baylor team that runs the ball 62% of the time with some effectiveness.

• Also see: Heisman Rankings: A New Player Jumps to No. 1

Final Analysis

Folsom Field should be a tough environment on Saturday night, but Colorado is yet to prove it can regularly beat Power 4 opponents. Sloppy conditions should favor Baylor, especially if the weather helps limit Colorado’s aerial attack and allow the Bears to control the clock on offense. Aranda has kept quiet about his plans to get after Shedeur Sanders, but after seeing Nebraska attack Colorado’s weak offensive line and harass the talented passer, expect him to do the same. A win here would go a long way towards helping Baylor return to a bowl game and Aranda hang on to his job.

Prediction: Baylor 24, Colorado 21

Who do you think will win Saturday’s game? Sound off in the comments below.

More college football coverage:

• Week 4 Picks: Expert Predictions for Every Game
• Heisman Rankings: A New Player Jumps to No. 1
• Group of 5 Coaches Poll: Week 3