Severe storms Texas to Kentucky, Storm/hurricane risk late week Gulf Coast Louisiana to Florida

The week ahead offers some severe weather risks to deal with across much of the Southern Plains from Texas and Oklahoma eastward into Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating areas of risk today and Monday though it is not risk for widespread severe weather. Rather it is the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms.

Photo bystorm prediction center

Photo bystorm prediction center

Weather systems across the US have not been able to move west to east thanks to a blocking pattern in the Northeast US and Eastern Canada. That block is finally breaking down this week and that will allow weather systems to resume their natural movement from west to east.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

Later this week we will see low pressure in the Western Caribbean become better organized and we could see a tropical storm develop by Thursday and then the system will head into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel. Weather models are coming around to the idea that conditions will be favorable for strengthening as this system heads northward through the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

That sort of track means that the risks are growing for a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast late in the week. We would indicate that the highest risks lie from the Louisiana coast to the Florida West Coast particularly the Panhandle though there is still much uncertainty at this early stage. We recommend that those of you in the risk areas should start to pay attention to weather developments over the next several days.