Opinion: Trevor Lawrence is a tremendous talent, but a tough fix

When he came out of Clemson a few years ago, Trevor Lawrence was definitely the Next Big Thing, and he seemed absolutely destined to become an All-Pro and a superstar. Lawrence had it all—rocket arm, the size to see the field and the athleticism to break out of a collapsing pocket and make plays. Not only that, but everything about him said “winner,” especially after Lawrence’s title run during his astounding freshman year.

So what happened? Lawrence doesn’t look anything like that guy, and he’s been in decline for some time now. Injuries, coaching changes, the lack of targets and a pivotal playoff collapse have taken their toll, and the Jacksonville quarterback seems to have bottomed out completely after a dispiriting 18-13 loss to Cleveland. The quarterback's own post-game summary was both succinct and accurate: “We suck right now.”

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Trevor Lawrence has a Doug Pederson problem, or vice versa

The guy who was supposed to fix Trevor Lawrence was Pederson, the former Philadelphia head coach who somehow managed to coax a Super Bowl win out of now-retired journeyman Nick Foles. Surely, the combination of Pederson’s offensive creativity—he was an NFL quarterback, after all, albeit a backup—and Lawrence’s sheer talent would elevate the Jags to elite status, right?

Sorry, but that hasn’t happened, either. Instead Lawrence and the Jags are mired in mediocrity again, which is where the franchise has been for most of its history. He looks like a damaged quarterback rather than a franchise savior, and if the Jags can’t pull it together against Buffalo tonight, Lawrence might get to experience yet another coach and coordinator.

Listing the problems

How we got here is a fascinating story that starts with a series of seemingly small missteps. One was making Travis Etienne, Jr. a first-round pick. The idea was that Etienne would become a true double threat, capable of getting outside in the run game and posing a legitimate threat as a receiver.

But that double-threat potential has never really come to fruition. Etienne was solid in his rookie year, rushing for over a thousand yards and getting just over five yards a carry, but that average dropped precipitously last year, and it really hasn’t recovered this year, either. The same basic pattern has emerged for Etienne as a receiver; he catches a lot of balls, but he’s mostly a safety valve, not a game breaker.

The running back was also part of the Urban Meyer problem, which was the overarching issue early on in Lawrence’s development. His main target initially was Christian Kirk, who was billed as a #1 receiver, but he’s a secondary target at best.

Pederson’s fixes haven’t worked

We’ll ignore the obvious issues with Meyer, who torched his coaching career so badly that he’s now lucky to have a job as a college analyst. Pederson inherited Etienne and Kirk, but he’s responsible for Calvin Ridley, who never really clicked with Lawrence the way Pederson thought he would. He posted a thousand-yard season, but Ridley’s average yardage per catch was just over 13, which doesn’t exactly strike fear into opponents, so he was allowed to sign with Tennessee.

Now Jacksonville’s big downfield threat is Brian Thomas, Jr., an LSU product who’s shown signs of breaking out in his rookie year. Thomas is averaging over 23 yards a catch, but he’s a rookie, so whether he can continue to provide that level of downfield production remains an open question.

The larger issue is Lawrence himself. His decision process is broken, mostly. He struggles to get in rhythm for any extended period, and he takes risks both in and out of the pocket, then takes hits that have put him on the shelf, which simply can’t happen.

There’s still time for Jacksonville to fix all this, of course. We saw plenty of 0-2 teams turn things around yesterday, and several of the them are far worse than Jacksonville on paper. But a loss tonight in Buffalo would put the Jags up against it in a big way, and it would intensify the focus on Doug Pederson. It would also increase speculation that things are going south for him in a big way, just like they did in Philly a couple of years ago.

This article was originally written by Bob McCullough