I’m not interested in calling Arizona for Kamala Harris before voting even starts; but if I were, I’d point at the results of the latest New York Times/Siena College poll showing Donald Trump with a 5-point lead.
Voters in Arizona were contacted last week as part of a battleground state survey that showed, according to a Times analysis , “further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history.”
That might be true, given that the poll showed close races in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. But I’m not convinced that Trump’s lead in Arizona is anything more than a statistical blip that Harris can pounce on when she visits Arizona on Friday.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21, shows Trump ahead 50% to 45% in Arizona.
But just a few weeks ago, the same poll had Harris up by 4 points.
Arizona is a murky state to poll
“Arizona is the murkiest,” Times writer Nate Cohn explained . “There hasn’t been much polling of the state, period, and there’s never been a time when the polls there have strung together a consistent story.
“That goes for the last Times/Siena poll, which had Ms. Harris up five in August but now has Mr. Trump up five today. This is our biggest poll-to-poll swing of the year, and it’s hard to believe the race has really moved so much. It’s a helpful reminder that polls of this size (about 700 respondents) are subject to meaningful random sampling error.”
The major event between the big shift was the debate, which Harris is widely considered to have won . She’ll be able to seize these results to keep her base from getting complacent when she visits the state this week.
“The poll results illustrate what Harris has sought to message throughout her campaign: That elections are not won by good debate performances and rallies,” Times writer Erica L. Green said. “In nearly all of her campaign events, she has reminded people that she is the underdog in the race.”
The state has a lot of undecided voters
The margin of error in this poll is plus or minus 4.4 points.
That means Trump is ahead by less than a percentage point, if at all.
If we look at other data from the survey, it shows a clear edge for Harris.
Let’s start with how many Arizona voters remain undecided: about 5%.
Another 13% can be persuaded based on their response to the question, “Are you definitely or probably going to vote for (your preferred candidate)?”
Also, about 10% of Latino voters are undecided in a state that’s been part of a Harris campaign blitz aimed at the demographic through Spanish-language advertising and campaign events.
Kari Lake and abortion could hurt the GOP
Now, consider a key issue.
“One silver lining for Harris in Arizona: abortion,” Times writer Kellen Browning said. “Voters said they supported the November ballot measure enshrining abortion access until fetal viability, 58 percent to 35 percent, and they preferred her handling of the issue to Trump’s by a 12-point margin.”
And consider how U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake is faring compared to Ruben Gallego. Gallego, the Democrat, is leading his MAGA Republican rival 49% to 43%.
Let’s toss one more variable into the mix. It’s called “the reverse Bradley effect.”
Named for a 1980s California gubernatorial contender, “ the Bradley effect ” explains how Black candidates can win in opinion polls and lose in elections. Sometimes, voters lie about their willingness to support a Black candidate, skewing the accuracy of survey data.
But in 2008, Barack Obama overperformed polling data in some instances, leading analysts to wonder whether voters were secretly supporting him. This could apply to white voters in conservative communities or households where Obama would have been unpopular for a variety of reasons, which include race.
Trump is driving a wedge: In the LDS church
That same phenomenon could apply to Harris in traditionally-conservative-but-increasingly-moderate Arizona.
Harris, not Trump, has the advantage
Now, shake all that up and let it settle:
- The margin of error has this poll showing a virtual tie.
- Arizona is notoriously difficult to survey.
- There are plenty of undecided voters, including in key demographics.
- Harris has the advantage in her approach to abortion.
- Another MAGA candidate is performing poorly.
- Voters could be reluctant to publicly support a Black candidate.
To me, that looks like a cumulative edge for Harris, even if the numbers suggest Trump has a good lead.
I’m not interested in calling the race before voting even starts; but it sure does look good for Harris, even if the top-line numbers would suggest otherwise.
Reach Moore at gmoore@azcentral.com or 602-444-2236. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @SayingMoore .
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Opinion: Call Arizona for Kamala Harris now, based on new Times poll
Local News
