Tennessee Vols get a confusing slight by one national outlet in latest bowl projections

The Tennessee Volunteers have had a great start to their 2024 season.  Behind a balanced offense and a physical defense, the Vols have been firmly in control of every game they've played this year, including a 25-15 road win at Oklahoma on Saturday.

However, the SEC is particularly brutal this season, and while Josh Heupel's team has clearly taken a big step forward from where they were in 2023, it's obviously way too early to talk about the Vols as the SEC favorite at this point.  That's certainly in the cards if Tennessee keeps winning, particularly on October 19 against Alabama, but for now, the Vols at least appear to be solidly in the conversation for a playoff spot, at minimum.

That's where multiple projections have put Tennessee - outside of the top four, but in the field.  Two of those projections - On3 Sports' Jesse Simonton and Action Network - have Tennessee as the #7 playoff seed and facing off against the same opponent - Penn State - in Knoxville.

One might think that's a good matchup for the Vols, and you'd be right.  Penn State's running game clashes with the Vols' top defensive strength in their deep and talented defensive line.

However, Action Network's Brett McMurphy and Collin Wilson have a very strange point spread for the game, projecting Penn State to somehow be a 4.5-point favorite in Knoxville.

Now, this isn't based on Vegas, but rather Wilson's alleged betting power rankings , which - as are often the case with many of these supposed metric-based rankings - ignore logic and what your own eyes tell you.  These are the considerations for his rankings, according to Wilson:

"Our power ratings are fueled by Wilson’s projections, which aim to judge the true quality of a team based on advanced metrics, coaching changes, year-over-year roster continuity (TARP) and a host of other underlying components."

Those rankings have Penn State at 97 and Tennessee at 92.5, without a breakdown listed as to why.

Meanwhile, the reality is that Penn State and Tennessee both just faced Kent State at home in the last two weeks.  The Vols posted 65 points and pulled their quarterback before the halftime whistle sounded.  Penn State needed to rally for three late first-half touchdowns to go up 28-0 at the break.

Tennessee has two Power Five wins, including a convincing win at Oklahoma last weekend.  Penn State beat Bowling Green at home by 7 points back on September 7.  Anyone in their right mind would make Tennessee no less than a touchdown favorite against the Nittany Lions at Neyland Stadium.

What makes the number even stranger is that Action Network still picked Tennessee to beat Penn State and advance to the semifinals against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. So, what value did that number even have in the first place?  Is Action not trusting its own numbers and/or analysts?

It is, of course, very early in the season.  This could all look very different down the road (and likely will).  However, if analysts are putting out "power rankings" and point spreads this lopsided and absent of common sense...what are we even doing with these projections in the first place?

Related: Tennessee Vols' defensive performance caused a major overhaul to Oklahoma's offense on Monday