<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=4WPgcV_0viyBHmG00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=4WPgcV_0viyBHmG00" width="1200" height="724" ><figcaption>Photo provided by Bimeda</figcaption></figure>Iowa Farmer TodayCattle producers and analysts continue to watch for when U.S. beef cattle expansion will begin after numbers have dropped to levels not seen in over 60 years.University of Wyoming Extension specialist Rob Ziegler says several factors are at play.“The U.S. beef cow herd inventory has received significant attention recently due to historically low levels driven by market prices and drought conditions that have incentivized producers to sell,” he says.“Droughts impacted much of the U.S. in 2011-14 and again in 2021-23, coinciding with the contraction phase of the cow cycle. A closer look at cow slaughter during these contraction phases and drought periods could shed light on producers’ current intentions to rebuild and the potential trajectory of market prices.”<h2>People are also reading…</h2>During the last contraction and expansion phase, slaughter numbers peaked a few years before expansion began.“Beef cow slaughter peaked in 2011 at 3.9 million head, roughly midway through the last contraction phase, which ended in 2014 when expansion began,” Ziegler says. “Slaughter bottomed out in 2015 at 2.2 million head and started increasing again in 2016.”In the current cycle, 2022 was the slaughter peak.“Another peak in cow slaughter was observed in 2022 at nearly 4 million head,” he says. “In 2023, cow slaughter declined by 12% compared to 2022. … It appears that total cow slaughter in 2024 will be lower than that of 2023. While the final figure for 2024 is yet to be determined, if the decline continues 2024 could mark the second consecutive year of lower beef cow slaughter volumes.”Based on the last expansion cycle, this could mean more time before expansion begins.“If history repeats itself, as it did in 2011, we may have another one to two years of contraction before moving into the expansion phase,” Ziegler says.“However, despite strong feeder prices, elevated interest rates and higher input costs in recent years have negatively impacted income per cow. The question remains whether these margins will be sufficient to encourage expansion within that timeframe.”</div></body>

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Cattle industry continues to wait on expansion

Cattle producers and analysts continue to watch for when U.S. beef cattle expansion will begin after numbers have dropped to levels not seen in over 60 years. University of Wyoming Extension specialist Rob Ziegler says several factors are at play. “The U.S. beef cow herd inventory has received significant attention...

Cattle industry continues to wait on expansion

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