Hurricane Helene heads to US as a Category 4 storm. What that means for the Triangle

The eye of Hurricane Helene started moving ashore along the Florida coast Thursday night, bringing “catastrophic winds,” and the National Hurricane Center called a “life-threatening situation.”

The storm is expected to bring dangerous wind gusts, flash flooding and power outages to central North Carolina, the National Weather Service said in its 6 p.m. briefing. The rain band also could produce tornadoes, the weather service’s Raleigh office said.

School districts in the Triangle canceled classes for teachers and staff Friday in anticipation of the severe weather.

The storm was named a Category 3 hurricane in the afternoon of Sept. 26, with sustained winds of up to 120 mph .

Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in place for portions of Florida. A storm surge could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level along parts of the Florida Big Bend Coast, the NHC said in a report early in the morning Sept. 26.

In central North Carolina, the weather service said the worst of the weather will move through the area by 2 to 3 p.m. Friday.

More rain for NC mountains

Parts of the southeastern U.S. continue to receive rain ahead of the storm. Asheville, North Carolina, for example, is expected to receive several inches of rain Sept. 26.

Gov. Roy Cooper issued a state of emergency for North Carolina on Wednesday, Sept. 25, in response to Helene’s predicted impacts on the state.

During the morning Sept. 26 ahead of Helene’s arrival, Cooper called Helene “an unusually dangerous storm.”

Cooper warned of heavy rains that could cause flooding, debris flow and landslides in parts of Western North Carolina .

Helene is expected to bring 9 to 14 inches of rainfall to Western North Carolina, with more than 20 inches possible in some locations, N.C. Emergency Management Director Will Ray said. Those are expected to cause “significant flash flooding” starting Thursday evening.

Ray also warned that Central and Eastern North Carolina could see impacts from the storm. Places like Asheville and Charlotte need to be prepared for flash flooding, Cooper said.

”If you do not need to travel, please stay off the roadways, especially in the foothills and the mountains. Do not drive through floodwaters. We have lost too many North Carolinians who have driven around barricades and into floodwaters,” Cooper said.

North Carolina has activated 175 soldiers and airmen from the N.C. National Guard and deployed 16 of the state’s swift water rescue teams, with teams also coming from Illinois, Indiana and New York.

“This storm path is wide, and its impacts will be felt far from the center of the storm,” Cooper said.

Emergency shelters are open in Hendersonville, Marion and Swannoa.

Thursday, President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for North Carolina. That allows the Federal Emergency Management Agency to help fund emergency protective measures in much of Western North Carolina, including evacuations and emergency shelters.

Prep for a potentially ‘devastating’ hurricane

Several sources have been encouraging people in the Southeast to prepare in the days leading up to the storm’s arrival and respond accordingly to possible forthcoming evacuation orders. A NHC advisory shared around 2 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 25, warned of “life-threatening storm surge” and “devastating hurricane-force winds.” The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore wrote in a tweet Sept. 25 that the threat of Helene “cannot be understated” for the region.

“Because of the shape of the coast, which can trap excess water in the Big Bend area of northern Florida, and the forecast intensity and track of Helene, AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate a storm surge up to the height of a two-story building, or 15-20 feet, Thursday night,” according to an AccuWeather report . “At this height, some single-story buildings along the coast may be completely underwater.”

Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for many counties along the Florida coastline, as of the morning of Sept. 26.

While the storm is expected to weaken after it hits land, its “fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts” across the Southeast , the NHC said early Sept. 26.

In the Carolinas, the Greenville-Spartnburg NWS office released a flash flood warning late Thursday saying that major rainfall could lead to evacuations and rescues across Western North Carolina and in Upstate South Carolina. Flooding could leave some buildings uninhabitable or wash them away, meteorologists warned , with streets and parking lots becoming like rivers.

“Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers . In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides,” the warning said.

How and when will Hurricane Helene’s effects be felt in Raleigh and central NC?

Ahead of Helene’s arrival, the Triangle is forecast to experience light rain and embedded storms on Sept. 26 , especially after mid-day, said Nick Luchetti, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Raleigh.

Parts of the Triangle have received 4 to 7 inches of rain over the past seven days.

The center of Hurricane Helene isn’t expected to reach western North Carolina until Friday, Sept. 27 .

It will bring rain and strong winds throughout the state , with the most severe weather focused in the western part of North Carolina.

In the Triangle , residents should expect about 1 to 3 inches of rain from the storm , with most of it coming Friday, Sept. 27, especially between the morning and mid-to-late afternoon .

Heavier downpours that could occur as a main band of the storm pushes through the area could result in flash flooding , especially in urban areas.

Starting the morning of Sept. 27, parts of the Triangle could also see sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph , with gusts of up to 30 to 40 mph , Luchetti said. Stronger winds may cause power outages.

Isolated tornadoes are also possible between 5 a.m. and 3 p.m. Friday as the main band of the storm comes through the Triangle on Sept. 27.

Some rivers that flow through the Triangle may flood , especially in days after the storm passes through North Carolina.

Past storms in Western NC

In August 2021, Tropical Storm Fred followed a heavy rainfall in Western North Carolina by dropping 5 to 10 inches of rain on already saturated ground and swollen waterways.

At one point, the Pigeon River near Cruso rose more than 2.5 feet in 30 minutes. Flooding hit that Haywood County town especially hard, along with nearby Bethel and Canton, the Charlotte Observer previously reported .

Fred caused six deaths across Western North Carolina, while also destroying more than 50 homes and causing major damage to more than 200 additional homes, according to a FEMA damage assessment .

Ray, NC’s emergency management director, pointed further back. to the twin impacts the remnants of Hurricanes Frances and Ivan had in North Carolina’s mountains in 2004. Frances brought more than 23 inches of rain to Mount Mitchell over a four-day period, while Ivan’s heaviest rainfall a week later was measured at about 17 inches at Cruso.

“As we look at potential rainfall amounts and a potential threat picture, Frances and Ivan are also some of the reference points that we have. And so I don’t think we can overstate some of our concern about potential impact in that area of the state,” Ray said.

Late Thursday, Canton Mayor Zeb Smathers said the town and Haywood County officials had done everything they could to prepare since Sunday, taking advantage of days to prepare where Fred had only given them hours. Businesses in the floodplain had been urged to move inventory to higher ground and sandbags had been filled to try to keep water out.

As the storm drew nearer, Smathers was also thinking about how many of the businesses, homes and places that were preparing this week were the same he had visited in the aftermath of Fred. The damage from that storm, he said, was supposed to come once in a lifetime, and now the forecast was threatening a second disaster in a little more than three years.

For example, Smathers was preparing for the possibility that the football field at Pisgah Memorial Stadium, which was destroyed during Fred, would likely be lost again.

“It’s not lost on me and my community that a town that is roughly 3,000 feet above sea level and hundreds of miles away from the coast will now be impacted in three years with more tropical-related storms than many of our coastal towns,” Smathers said. “That is something we need to discuss, because that is not normal.”

Smathers was also thinking about the rest of Western North Carolina, worrying that the heavy rains could bring floodwaters to places that haven’t spent the last three years clearing debris from their rivers and considering how to strengthen themselves against floodwaters.

“We are getting ready to get hit with a very, very demonic storm. But so is the rest of the region, and what I worry about is there are a lot of places that are not as prepared as us because they didn’t go through Fred,” Smathers said as he drove along the Pigeon River.

The National Water Prediction Service was predicting Thursday afternoon that the Swannanoa River at Biltmore would crest 2 p.m. Friday at 21 feet.

That’s higher than Asheville’s historic flood of 1916 and, according to the service, is likely to cause “devastating flooding of the Swannanoa Valley” if reached.

The French Broad River was expected to reach major flood stage in Asheville on Friday, peaking at 21 feet.

Dwonstream, near Fletcher in Henderson County , the Water Prediction Service is forecasting the French Broad will peak at 30.50 feet at 8 p.m. Friday, shattering the 20.13-foot record set by Frances for a gauge that has been in place since July 2021.

“We’re seeing areas flood we’ve never seen flood before. A lot of folks may have lived through Frances and Ivan in 2004, we’re seeing floodwaters that exceed those levels,”Jimmy Brissie, Henderson County’s emergency services director said during a Thursday afternoon briefing .

Thursday, Buncombe County warned that people in Fletcher and Biltmore Village should voluntarily evacuate.

“If you are in an impacted area, you should leave now. It’s possible we may get to a point where our crews will not physically be able to perform rescues. We cannot emphasize how much you should take this seriously,” Buncombe County Emergency Services Director Taylor Jones said in a statement.

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