<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=00f5u3_0vknlkFa00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=00f5u3_0vknlkFa00" width="1210" height="806" ></figure><p>I was finally able to put together a better week at 4-2 in Week 4. My losses came from underrating the Iowa rushing attack and the Illinois defense. On the other hand, I correctly picked Rutgers to win outright as a 3.5 point underdog against ­­Virginia Tech. I sincerely hope that Rutgers takes a step back after that big win.</p><p>All odds posted are from SB Nation’s new online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook here.</p><h2>Minnesota @ Michigan (-9)</h2><p>Michigan opened as a 10.5 point favorite and the line has come down 1.5 points during the week, which likely reflects skepticism that Michigan can win consistently with a 1920s offense in the 2020s. It’s worth looking at the other side of the match-up, too. The Gophers were beaten handily by Iowa because they couldn’t move the ball. The Gopher offense ranks 122nd in EPA/dropback pass. Considering that Michigan defends the run very well- and showed a resurgence on that side of the ball against USC- it’s hard to see Minnesota putting many points on the board. Their best hope is to keep it low scoring and win on big plays.</p><p><b>Michigan 21 – Minnesota 10</b></p><h2>Maryland @ Indiana (-7)</h2><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=4GPgx0_0vknlkFa00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=4GPgx0_0vknlkFa00" width="960" height="1217" ><p>Indiana has been a feel-good story of the early part of the season and they have earned it by doing pretty much everything well. They can run, pass, and defend. They make big plays and can grind out long drives. They have even been good on special teams. They have done all these good things against a very weak schedule. Maryland will be a step up in competition and the Terps have done many of the same good things as the Hoosiers, but the loss to Michigan State obscures the record. I will still give Indiana the edge being at home, but I think these teams are a closer match than the spread indicates. </p><p><b>Indiana 30 – Maryland 28</b></p><h2>Wisconsin @ USC (-15.5)</h2><p>This is a game about which team is more back. Both teams hoped to be back this year. USC opened up looking like they were back with a win over LSU. Losing to Michigan set the back in terms of being back, but it was a close loss on the road, so they’re probably still mostly back. Wisconsin has been less back. They were just ok against Western Michigan and South Dakota then took a big step back against Alabama. Losing QB Tyler Van Dyke to a torn ACL sets them back even further from being back. Van Dyke’s absence will hurt, but the bigger problem will be Wisconsin’s pathetic defense- 106th in defensive EPA and outside the national top 100 against both the run and the pass. USC managed to grind out some nice drives against a very tough Michigan defense. Wisconsin is not going to offer the same resistance. </p><p><b>USC 38 – Wisconsin 17</b></p><h2>Illinois @ Penn State (-18.5)</h2><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=0guGDy_0vknlkFa00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=0guGDy_0vknlkFa00" width="1920" height="1277" ><p>Illinois has beaten Kansas and Nebraska already to point their stock in a distinctly upward direction. Penn State bounced back from a scare against Bowling Green by annihilating Kent State. OC Andy Kotelnicki looks like a great fit with the Nittany Lions, who might finally be turning the corner from the drab, lifeless offenses that prevented them from ascending in the conference during James Franklin’s tenure. Still, I think this line underrates how good Illinois has been on both sides of the ball. They are a fundamentally sound team and Luke Altmyer has become more than just another Big 10 QB. I don’t think they win this one, but 18.5 points is too rich for my blood. </p><p><b>Penn State 31 – Illinois 21 </b></p><h2>Oregon @ UCLA (+24)</h2><p>Things are not looking good for UCLA right now. Ethan Garbers is not playing like a P4 QB and the defensive stoutness seems to have moved across town with D’Anton Lynn. They hung with LSU for a half last week, though I’m not sure hanging with LSU is such a grand achievement. Oregon’s pummeling of the Beavers last time out is more like what I expected from them this year, so I will lean toward thinking they have put their first two ugly wins behind them. Yes, 24 points at home in a conference game is a lot, and the Bruins could backdoor their way into a cover, but I’m not comfortable picking them to do it. </p><p><b>Oregon 45 – UCLA 20</b></p><h2>UW @ Rutgers (-2.5)</h2><p>Let’s start with the arguments against the Huskies in the Friday night primetime game on Fox. First, the Dawgs have to travel 3000 miles across three time zones to play a road game on a week night (ok, that’s 3 arguments against the Huskies already). Rutgers will lean offensively on a powerful running back in Kyle Monangai and the Huskies have not shown an aptitude for dominating the line of scrimmage defensively in a way that can put Rutgers behind the sticks. Athan Kaliakmanis has his faults as a QB, but Rutgers has used the run game to draw defenses closer to the line of scrimmage, and the Greek Rifle has successfully thrown over them to the tune of 9.0 yards per attempt. Defensively, the best way to beat Rutgers is on the ground and the Dawgs have not shown a game-long commitment to the run game, possibly due to a lack of faith in the offensive line. Overall, Rutgers is a very physical team on a level the Huskies have not yet encountered. </p><p>There are also very reasonable arguments in favor of UW. Rutgers does not have an especially explosive offense, and the only way to score on the Husky defense so far this year is when they commit enough penalties to extend opponents’ drives. Will Rogers, while not always looking the smoothest, has put up rock-solid stats and is forging impressive connections with both Denzel Boston and Giles Jackson. Rutgers has a pretty good defense, but it’s not elite to the degree that it should knock Rogers completely out of rhythm. </p><p>On a neutral field with equal rest and travel, I would take the Huskies to win. With many other factors working against UW, I’m worried that this tough stretch of games will get off to an undesirable start. </p><p><b>Rutgers 27 – UW 23</b></p></div></body>

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Big 10 Pick 6: The Scarlet Friday (K)night game

I was finally able to put together a better week at 4-2 in Week 4. My losses came from underrating the Iowa rushing attack and the Illinois defense. On the other hand, I correctly picked Rutgers to win outright as a 3.5 point underdog against Virginia Tech. I sincerely hope that Rutgers takes a step back after that big win.