Self-learning AI shares NFL against the spread, over-under, money-line picks for every Week 4, 2024 game
By CBS Sports Staff,
23 days ago
There have been 30 games decided by eight points or fewer this season, the most through three weeks in NFL history. Close games have been the norm, and close NFL spreads are also frequent. Just two contests in Week 4, Jets vs. Broncos (+7.5) and 49ers vs. Patriots (+10.5), have Week 4 NFL lines of more than a touchdown. Nine games have a team favored by a field goal or less in the NFL odds, including divisional battles like Saints vs. Falcons (-2.5) and Vikings vs. Packers (-2.5). No team has a worse against the spread record since 2023 than Atlanta (6-14), but New Orleans has covered in just two of its last nine September games.
Built using cutting-edge artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques by SportsLine's Data Science team, AI Predictions and AI Ratings are generated for each game. The AI predictions are determined by statistically learning from each team's historical data and then quantitatively evaluating the strength of the opponent's defense by assigning a numeric value out of 100 called a matchup score.
Once a prediction is formulated, the AI rating is generated using the prediction, the matchup score, and the odds of the market. For example, you could see an A-rating on an over bet if a team is facing a poor defense, their prediction differs from the line and there are favorable odds.
In addition, SportsLine AI is the first fully automated predictive model at SportsLine. It continuously refreshes on the most recent available data and can help you spot the biggest discrepancies in the lines. Last season, SportsLine's AI PickBot hit a whopping 1,674 4.5- and 5-star prop picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
After analyzing every game in Week 4, the AI PickBot says the Jaguars cover as 6-point road underdogs against the Texans . Underdogs of 6-plus points are 11-1-1 against the spread this season, including the Bears covering as 6.5-point underdogs versus Houston in Week 2. That game was part of a four-game against-the-spread losing streak for the Texans, the second-longest streak in the league.
The Texans are coming off a 27-point defeat to Minnesota, their largest of the DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud era. Stroud tied a career-high with two interceptions, and Houston is a team that constantly shoots itself in the foot, as just two squads have more penalties than the Texans. Those penalties either shorten offensive drives or keep opponents' drives going, and Jacksonville can take advantage since it ranks third in the league with 5.4 yards per carry. The AI PickBot has this game being decided by less than a field goal, which would allow Jacksonville to cover as a 6-point underdog. See its other Week 4 football predictions and football picks at SportsLine .
How to make Week 4 NFL picks
In addition, the AI PickBot has generated 11 other A-rated picks for Week 4. You need to see the AI PickBot's picks before making any Week 4 NFL bets of your own. You can only see them at SportsLine .
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