Notre Dame vs. Louisville odds, spread: 2024 college football picks, Week 5 predictions by proven model

The No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will look to pick up a much-needed win over a ranked opponent when they host the No. 15 Louisville Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. Notre Dame suffered a shocking defeat against Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, but the Fighting Irish have outscored the opposition 94-10 over their last two games. Louisville, meanwhile, enters Saturday's showdown with an undefeated record. The Cardinals recorded a 31-19 victory over Georgia Tech in their last outing.

Kickoff at Notre Dame Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Fighting Irish are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Louisville vs. Notre Dame odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. Before making any Notre Dame vs. Louisville picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model .

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Notre Dame vs. Louisville . You can head to SportsLine to see its picks . Here are several college football betting lines on the spread , money line and over/under for Louisville vs. Notre Dame:

• Louisville vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -6.5
• Louisville vs. Notre Dame over/under: 45.5 points
• Louisville vs. Notre Dame money line: Notre Dame -250, Louisville +200
• Louisville vs. Notre Dame picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Notre Dame can cover

Notre Dame's offense has been firing on all cylinders since sputtering in a 16-14 loss against Northern Illinois at home. The Fighting Irish lit up the scoreboard in their 66-7 victory over Purdue on Sept. 14 behind an effective rushing attack. Quarterback Riley Leonard rushed for 100 yards and three scores against the Boilermakers, while running back Jeremiyah Love racked up 109 rushing yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.

For the season, Love is averaging 7.4 yards per carry while Leonard has scored six rushing touchdowns. The Fighting Irish are averaging 238.2 rushing yards per game, the 18th-best mark in college football. Defensively, Notre Dame is giving up 256.2 yards per game to opposing offenses, which ranks 16th in the nation. See which team to pick here .

Why Louisville can cover

The Cardinals are extremely explosive on offense, averaging 47.3 points per game, which ranks 12th in the country. Louisville is led by quarterback Tyler Shough , who's completing 68.4% of his passes for 850 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. In last week's win over Georgia Tech, Shough completed 13 of 19 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns.

Defensively, Louisville has been tough to break down. The Cardinals are giving up just 268.7 yards per game on average, which ranks 22nd in college football. In addition, Louisville secured a 33-20 victory over the Fighting Irish in 2023, so the Cardinals will be confident they can pull off the upset on Saturday. See which team to pick here .

How to make Louisville vs. Notre Dame picks

The model has simulated Notre Dame vs. Louisville 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine .

So who wins Louisville vs. Notre Dame, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that's up over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception , and find out.