College Football Week 5 Preview: Score Predictions, Must-See Games and Impact Group of 5 Matchups

Week 5 of 2024 college football season marks the final Saturday of action in the month of September, which means the focus of the action shifts to conference play. A monster showdown in the SEC is on tap with Alabama hosting Georgia, while key games in the Big Ten (Illinois-Penn State), and the Big 12 (Oklahoma State-Kansas State) highlight the top matchups in Week 5. Also, Notre Dame hosts Louisville in a game that could loom large for CFB Playoff positioning for coach Marcus Freeman's squad.

In the Group of 5 conferences, realignment and expansion dominated the news throughout the week, but the focus returns to an intriguing slate of games on Saturday. Western Kentucky (Boston College) and Northern Illinois (NC State) aim to score upsets against ACC opponents, with Texas State-Sam Houston, Washington State-Boise State, Fresno State-UNLV, and South Florida-Tulane atop the list of must-see matchups.

Athlon Sports previews and predicts all of the top matchups and must-see games for Week 5:

• See also: College Football Picks: Expert Predictions for Every Game in Week 5

College Football Week 5 previews and score predictions: the five biggest games of the week

1. Alabama vs. Georgia (-2)

Steven Lassan: Saturday night's game is the first of several high-profile showdowns in the SEC in the coming weeks. I'm interested to see how Georgia handles Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and if new coach Kalen DeBoer has a few things offensively to unveil in this game. The Bulldogs' defense was banged up against Kentucky but seems likely to be closer to full strength on Saturday night. Although Alabama's defense has allowed only 26 points through three games, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and his receiving corps is the best test the Crimson Tide's secondary has faced so far in '24.
Prediction: Georgia 27, Alabama 24

Dan Lyons: This matchup is a game of the year candidate every time we get it, and that should be no different with Kalen DeBoer on the Crimson Tide sideline. Both of these teams have had some trouble against lesser opponents this year, Alabama pulled away to beat USF 42-16, while Georgia nearly dropped its game to Kentucky 13-12. Alabama followed their shaky performance up with absolute domination of Wisconsin on the road 42-10. Even so, it doesn’t feel like DeBoer has come close to showing everything he has in his bag, on offense. Jalen Milroe has been dominant, with 14 total touchdowns through three games and a 213.4 passer rating. Kentucky proved that Georgia’s elite defense has some vulnerabilities against the run, and the combination of Milroe, Jam Miller and Justice Haynes should be able to take advantage.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Georgia 21

2. Penn State vs. Illinois (+18)

Lassan: Illinois has been one of the biggest surprises of the ’24 season. Quarterback Luke Altmyer is much-improved in his second year in Champaign, and the defense is allowing only 12.5 points a game (so far) after losing standout Johnny Newton in the trenches. Despite the 4-0 start and wins over Kansas and Nebraska, the oddsmakers aren’t giving Illinois much of a shot here as a 18-point underdog. Penn State’s offense is on the right track under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and despite a sluggish showing against Bowling Green in Week 2, the defense is holding teams to 13 points a game. I could see Illinois covering here, but the Nittany Lions are the better all-around team right now.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Illinois 20

Lyons: Don’t be surprised if this is a close Big Ten battle. Outside of its shaky performance against Bowling Green, Penn State has looked the part of a top 10 program. Drew Allar has taken a step forward with new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and the rushing attack and defense as excellent, as expected. Illinois is no slouch, with solid wins over Kansas and Nebraska already. A night game in Happy Valley is a new level of challenge for them, though.
Prediction: Penn State 28, Illinois 20

3. Notre Dame vs. Louisville (+6.5)

Lassan: Intriguing is the best way to sum up this matchup. Notre Dame's rushing attack has recorded 632 yards over the last two games, but the offense is still struggling to connect on big plays downfield behind quarterback Riley Leonard. Louisville has quietly impressed with wins over Austin Peay, Jacksonville State, and Georgia Tech. Coach Jeff Brohm's team also ranks third in the ACC against the run, and quarterback Tyler Shough is the best signal-caller the standout Fighting Irish defense has faced in '24.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Louisville 24

Lyons: Notre Dame dropped its game to Northern Illinois and was caught sleepwalking early on against Miami (Ohio) before pulling away. It also won convincingly at Texas A&M and shellacked Purdue. Louisville has been more consistent, but this is by far the most difficult game the Cardinals will have played. Expect Marcus Freeman to have this team ready to play once again after a lackluster Week 4 game.
Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Louisville 21

4. Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State (+5)

Lassan: It’s only Week 5, so calling this an elimination game in the Big 12 title picture is probably an overstatement. However, after both teams lost in conference play last week, a loss would be a huge setback in a crowded conference race. Oklahoma State’s inability to run the ball (3.4 yards a carry) behind running back Ollie Gordon II remains a major issue for coach Mike Gundy’s squad. Also, the defense has allowed over 230 rushing yards to the two power conference (Arkansas and Utah) opponents it faced so far in ’24. That’s where K-State is at its best, so expect a heavy dose of quarterback Avery Johnson on the ground to go with DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards.
Prediction: Kansas State: 31, Oklahoma State 24

Lyons: Both teams need to rebound after disappointing Week 4 losses. Kansas State’s blowout loss at BYU was more jarring to watch, but the Wildcats only gave up 241 total yards to the Cougars in the 38-9 loss. Oklahoma State’s complete inability to get its best player, Ollie Gordon II, going this season is really disconcerting.
Prediction: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma State 24

5. UCF vs. Colorado (+14)

Lassan: It's a game of contrasting styles. Behind quarterback Shedeur Sanders and a deep group of receivers, Colorado averages 41 pass attempts a game. UCF prefers the ground attack, as coach Gus Malzahn's squad attempts 55 rushes a contest. Considering the Buffaloes' issues against the run (150.8 yards a game allowed), this is a challenging matchup for Coach Prime's squad. UCF is the better team, but Colorado should be able to cover the spread in an entertaining game.
Prediction: UCF 38, Colorado 27

Lyons: The Knights have flown way under the radar so far this season, but it shouldn’t come as a real surprise that Gus Malzahn’s team can run the ball in a big way. RJ Harvey is one of the nation’s most productive running backs (448 yards, 8 touchdowns) and he accounts for less than 40% of this team’s rushing offense. Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson hasn’t been asked to do too much, but has averaged a very strong 11 yards per attempt. Colorado can score, but it has yet to prove that it can keep any quality opponent from moving the ball unless Travis Hunter is directly involved in a play.
Prediction: UCF 38, Colorado 31

• See also: Heisman Trophy Rankings: Colorado’s Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders Rise After Dramatic Win

College Football Week 5: the next tier of Power 4 games

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky (+17.5)

Lassan: This is the first real test for Ole Miss. Can the Rebels’ high-powered offense stay on track against Kentucky’s standout defense?
Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Kentucky 17

Lyons: Kentucky’s a bit of a mystery, after getting blown out by South Carolina and then giving Georgia all it could handle in back-to-back weeks. Ole Miss may have the best offense in the country, and while it hasn’t faced an SEC opponent yet, the Wildcats don’t have the firepower to keep up.
Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Kentucky 19

Michigan State vs. Ohio State (-23.5)

Lassan: Michigan State is headed in the right direction under new coach Jonathan Smith, but Ohio State has too much on both sides of the ball. This is a good chance to view the Buckeyes in their toughest test so far in the '24 season.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Michigan State 13

Lyons: It’s high time for Ohio State to get a real test this season, after three games against the MAC and Sun Belt. Michigan State looks improved under Smith, but the offense is still a real work in progress. Ohio State should be a well-oiled machine.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Michigan State 10

Auburn vs. Oklahoma (-2)

Lassan: Oklahoma leads the SEC in takeaways (12), while Auburn ranks at the top of the conference in giveaways (14). Both teams have major question marks on offense, but the Sooners have the better defense.
Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Auburn 20

Lyons: The battle of the ascendent backup quarterbacks. Oklahoma’s defense probably doesn’t get enough credit for holding Tennessee to 25 points and 345 yards, given the offensive struggles over the last few weeks. Brent Venables’ unit is the best know quantity of any group in this game, and should have a big edge on an Auburn team that can’t stop giving the ball away.
Prediction: Oklahoma 21, Auburn 17

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (+4, game in Arlington)

Lassan: Texas A&M has won 11 out of the last 12 in this series. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is the x-factor, but Texas A&M’s defense makes enough stops late to seal the victory.
Prediction: Texas A&M 30, Arkansas 27

Lyons: The Aggies have had some growing pains, but have gotten a real lift on offense with Marcel Reed stepping in at quarterback. The two teams mirror each other in many ways, especially in their love of running the ball, but A&M is safer with the ball and should have a talent advantage across the board.
Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Arkansas 21

USC vs. Wisconsin (+15.5)

Lassan: USC should be eager to rebound after the last-second loss to Michigan last Saturday. With quarterback Tyler Van Dyke sidelined for the rest of ’24, major concerns surround Wisconsin’s offense.
Prediction: USC 34, Wisconsin 17

Lyons: The Trojans have to be happy to return to L.A. for their first Big Ten home game after how last week’s game at Michigan turned out. Once upon a time, the Badgers would have posed a similar rushing threat to the Wolverines. Not this year’s team, which is anemic on offense.
Prediction: USC 31, Wisconsin 14

Rutgers vs. Washington (+2.5, game on Friday)

Lassan: Washington has a long trek to the East Coast for a new conference matchup against Rutgers in its first road game as a member of the Big Ten. Running back Kyle Monangai is one of the nation's most underrated players and should be able to find running room for the Scarlet Knights against a Washington defense allowing only 3.3 yards a carry so far in '24.
Prediction: Rutgers 27, Washington 24

Lyons: Washington comes to the East Coast for the first time as a Big Ten team, and faces the best Rutgers team in years. The Scarlet Knights are happy to slow this game down and pound the ball with Kyle Monangai, similar to the way Washington State scored an Apple Cup win a few weeks ago.
Prediction: Rutgers 24, Washington 20

Miami vs. Virginia Tech (+19.5, game on Friday)

Lassan: This matchup had a ton of potential in the preseason. However, with Virginia Tech’s 2-2 start and Miami’s red-hot 4-0 record and offense behind quarterback Cam Ward, this one might not be close.
Prediction: Miami 34, Virginia Tech 17

Lyons: If the Heisman was given out in September, Cam Ward would probably be the winner. He’s leading an impressively balanced Miami offense, while Virginia Tech has been surprisingly shaky.
Prediction: Miami 27, Virginia Tech 14

Michigan vs. Minnesota (+9.5)

Lassan: The Golden Gophers gave up 272 rushing yards in last week’s loss to Iowa. That’s not a great formula against a Michigan team that seemed to find its identity against USC last Saturday.
Prediction: Michigan 31, Minnesota 10

Lyons: Michigan finally embraced its identity as a running juggernaut against USC last week. Minnesota didn’t fair well at all against Iowa, a team with a similar offensive identity, last week, and that game was at home.
Prediction: Michigan 34, Minnesota 10

Utah vs. Arizona (+10.5)

Lassan: The Noah Fifita-Tetairoa McMillan connection for Arizona is entertaining to watch, but Arizona’s struggling rush defense will have its hands full with Utah’s ground game (206.3 yards a game). Whether it’s Isaac Wilson or Cam Rising for the Utes under center, the rushing attack and standout defense will be too much for the Wildcats.
Prediction: Utah 34, Arizona 20

Lyons: It’s anyone’s guess whether this will be the week that Cameron Rising returns to Utah’s offense, although the team managed just fine against Oklahoma State with Isaac Wilson under center. Arizona blew out the Utes in their Pac-12 matchup in Tucson a year ago, but the Wildcats are yet to put together an inspiring performance this year after taking significant transfer portal losses.
Prediction: Utah 26, Arizona 24

UCLA vs. Oregon (-25.5)

Lassan: Oregon seems to be finding its rhythm as the season progresses. UCLA’s struggling offense and defense will be no match for the Ducks here.
Prediction: Oregon 45, UCLA 17

Lyons: Oregon finally put it all together against Oregon State ahead of its bye. The Bruins should be similarly overmatched, though their first half against LSU was promising.
Prediction: Oregon 43, UCLA 21

Baylor vs. BYU (+3.5)

Lassan: This is a tough game to project. Baylor could be a little flat after its overtime loss to Colorado, but it's also easy to see BYU having a letdown after last week's home win over Kansas State. Expect a close one, but I'll give a slight edge to coach Kalani Sitake's team.
Prediction: BYU 27, Baylor 24

Lyons: BYU had just about everything go right in its blowout win over Kansas State. Baylor repeatedly failed in late-game situations at Colorado. The Cougars are a bit more trustworthy in a coin flip game.
Prediction: BYU 29, Baylor 23

Indiana vs. Maryland (+7)

Lassan: Indiana is one of college football's most improved teams under new coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers have won all four of their games by at least 24 points, including a 42-13 victory over UCLA two weeks ago. Maryland gave up 363 passing yards to Michigan State in its only Big Ten contest so far this year, which is a bad sign against Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke (1,013 yards and eight touchdowns).
Prediction: Indiana 31, Maryland 27

Lyons: Curt Cignetti said he was going to win right away at Indiana, and he’s absolutely delivered so far. Kurtis Rourke should find success through the air against a leaky Terrapins pass defense, as long as the weather holds up.
Prediction: Indiana 30, Maryland 24

Kansas vs. TCU (+1.5)

Lassan: With both teams 0-1 in Big 12 play, there should be some early desperation on Saturday. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is off to a slow start, and the offense has struggled overall with turnovers (10 lost). TCU signal-caller Josh Hoover leads the Big 12 in passing yards (1,418), but the Horned Frogs are struggling on defense and can't run the ball. This one is likely to feature a ton of points.
Prediction: Kansas 34, TCU 31

Lyons: This Big 12 matchup features two very flawed teams. Kansas has dropped three winnable games by shooting itself in the football, but TCU’s defense was wholly exposed by SMU last week. Lance Leipold’s Jayhawks won’t keep giving away games the way that they have.
Prediction: Kansas 38, TCU 34

Duke vs. North Carolina (+2.5)

Lassan: Is this a battle of two teams headed in opposite directions this year? Duke is quietly 4-0 behind new coach Manny Diaz, and with a relentless pass rush (15 sacks), ranks among the top defenses in the ACC. After last week's loss to James Madison, the Tar Heels are teetering a bit. The question marks about Mack Brown's future will only increase if North Carolina loses again on Saturday.
Prediction: Duke 27, North Carolina 24

Lyons: It’s hard to have a worse Saturday than giving up 70 points to a Group of 5 program and then having a coach put himself on retirement-watch. Duke has quietly run out to a 4-0 start, and Manny Diaz will not shy away from attacking a UNC offensive line that struggled against James Madison.
Prediction: Duke 27, North Carolina 23

SMU vs. Florida State (+6.5)

Lassan: The Seminoles got into the win column last week but need more offense to make it two in a row. However, the defensive front could cause SMU a ton of problems.
Prediction: SMU 27, Florida State 24

Lyons: The Mustangs clearly figured something out in its 66-point outburst against rival TCU, after making the full-time move to Kevin Jennings at quarterback. Florida State improved against Cal, but needed plenty of luck to get that first win of the season.
Prediction: SMU 24, Florida State 17

• See also: College Football Group of 5 Coaches Poll: Week 4

Top Group of 5 games of College Football Week 5

Tulane vs. South Florida (+5)

Lassan: The winner of this game will take an early step forward in a crowded race to win the AAC. Tulane will have its hands full with South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown, but the Bulls are also going to have a hard time with Green Wave running back Makai Hughes.
Prediction: Tulane 31, South Florida 27

Lyons: Both teams challenged themselves in nonconference play. Tulane has looked feistier, and Green Wave quarterback Darian Mensah is a true revelation, paired with one of the nation’s best running backs in Hughes. USF’s defense is the biggest question mark in this matchup
Prediction: Tulane 38, South Florida 33

UNLV vs. Fresno State (+2)

Lassan: I'm interested to see how UNLV plays after a week of distractions and the departure of its starting quarterback Matthew Sluka. However, despite all of the bad news for coach Barry Odom, new starter (and Campbell transfer) Hajj-Malik Williams is capable, and the Rebels lead the Mountain West in scoring defense. This game could loom large for positioning in the conference later this year.
Prediction: UNLV 27, Fresno State 24

Lyons: Coaches famously hate distractions, and no program has had a more distraction-filled week than UNLV. The Rebels are weighing whether to jump to the Pac-12 or remain with the Mountain West and on Wednesday had multiple players opt to sit out the rest of the season, including starting quarterback Matthew Sluka .
Prediction: Fresno State 30, UNLV 27

Boise State vs. Washington State (+7)

Lassan: The matchup of Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and Washington State quarterback John Mateer is worth staying up late for on Sunday night. Jeanty (195.3 rushing yards a game) should find plenty of running room against a Cougars' defense that ranks 83rd nationally in rush defense success. However, the Broncos have allowed over 30 points in two games against FBS opponents this year, giving Mateer an opportunity for another huge performance.
Prediction: Boise State 38, Washington State 31

Lyons: Washington State’s John Mateer will give Boise State some problems, but the Broncos have a generational player in Ashton Jeanty. Washington State’s defense is ranked 12th in the nation in tackling, per Pro Football Focus. If the Cougars let him get loose, they’ll have a long night in Boise.
Prediction: Boise State 33, Washington State 28

Appalachian State vs. Liberty (-3.5)

*Game has been canceled due to the impacts from Hurricane Helene

Lassan: Liberty is 4-0, but coach Jamey Chadwell's squad hasn't played up to its potential. Appalachian State aims to rebound after a rare home blowout loss to South Alabama (48-14) last Saturday. The Mountaineers rank last in the Sun Belt in points allowed and struggle to stop the run. That's a bad formula against Liberty's offense behind quarterback Kaidon Salter and a deep stable of running backs.
Prediction: Liberty 38, Appalachian State 31

Lyons: Liberty escaped tight games with New Mexico State and ECU to start 4-0, but Appalachian State has been a disappointment, and was blasted by South Alabama last week 48-14. Flames QB Kaidon Salter should put up big numbers against a struggling Mountaineer secondary.
Prediction: Liberty 41, Appalachian State 29

NC State vs. Northern Illinois (+6.5)

Lassan: NC State has been one of the nation's most disappointing teams through the first four weeks. Freshman quarterback CJ Bailey showed promise in last Saturday's loss to Clemson and might be the spark this offense needs after a sluggish start. Northern Illinois already knocked off one power conference team (Notre Dame) and should give the Wolfpack a battle.
Prediction: NC State 27, Northern Illinois 20

Lyons: NC State is looking to get back on track against an NIU team that has already proven it can drag a team into the mud, with its win at Notre Dame. Wolfpack wide receiver KC Concepcion may be the best offensive weapon NIU has faced so far, even with the Wolfpack’s quarterback situation up in the air
Prediction: NC State 24, Northern Illinois 16

• See also: College Football’s Top 25 Quarterbacks After Week 4

Best of the rest of Saturday’s College Football games

Boston College vs. Western Kentucky (+13)

Lassan: The dynamic playmaking ability of Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos figures to be a handful for a Western Kentucky defense struggling to stop the run (176.7 yards a game allowed). The Hilltoppers have reeled off three wins in a row since losing to Alabama 63-0, including a 26-21 upset over Toledo last week.
Prediction: Boston College 34, Western Kentucky 24

Lyons: WKU has looked like a real G5 contender since its Week 1 loss at Alabama. The Eagles present serious challenges, with a solid defense and a ground-and-pound offense that can still hit the big play, with QB Thomas Castellanos averaging 10.4 yards per attempt.
Prediction: Boston College 34, Western Kentucky 25

Sam Houston vs. Texas State (-8, game in Houston)

Lassan: Texas State pounded UTSA 49-10 in Week 2 and had an off date last week to recover from the Sept. 12 loss to Arizona State (31-28). This should be an entertaining battle between the Bobcats' high-powered offense (35.8 points a game) and Sam Houston's defense (20.8 points a game allowed). If the Bearkats continue to show progress on offense, this team should be a bowl squad with a favorable CUSA slate.
Prediction: Texas State 34, Sam Houston 20

Lyons: Texas State looks to make another statement against a Texas Group of 5 foe, after beating UTSA earlier in the season, this one coming at NRG Stadium. Sam Houston’s defense has been impressive in its three wins, but the Bearkats don’t have the firepower to keep up with Jordan McCloud and the Bobcats.
Prediction: Texas State 33, Sam Houston 18

Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern (+3.5)

Lassan: The Panthers have won three of the last four games in this rivalry and have momentum under new coach Dell McGee from their Sept. 14 victory over Vanderbilt. Georgia Southern is giving up 7.4 yards a play through four games, and although the schedule has been challenging, the offense is also off to a slow start (4.8 yards a snap). Former Pitt/Penn State signal-caller Christian Veilleux (717 yards and six touchdowns) is off to a good start for Georgia State.
Prediction: Georgia State 31, Georgia Southern 28

Lyons: Both sides of the newly dubbed “Georgia Grown Bowl” have had good moments early in the year, but can give up points in bunches. The Eagles are coming off of a drubbing against Ole Miss, while the Panthers got to rest after an upset win over Vanderbilt. That rest and home game gives Georgia State an edge.
Prediction: Georgia State 34, Georgia Southern 27

East Carolina vs. UTSA (+4)

Lassan: East Carolina has one of the top defenses in the American Athletic Conference (18.3 points a game allowed), but the offense has struggled with turnovers (14). UTSA is off to a slow start in the post-Frank Harris era, and the defense must play better after giving up 49 points to Texas State and 56 to Texas. The Roadrunners will find their footing this year, but the Pirates have the edge this Saturday.
Prediction: East Carolina 27, UTSA 24

Lyons: ECU was on the verge of big wins against Appalachian State and Liberty over the last two weeks. The Pirates have a chance to get over the hump against a Roadrunners team that has struggled against quality opponents in 2024.
Prediction: East Carolina 24, UTSA 20

LSU vs. South Alabama (+22)

Lassan: LSU's struggling defense won't catch a break here. A week after losing standout linebacker Harold Perkins, the Tigers face a South Alabama offense that leads the Sun Belt in scoring (48.3 points a game) behind quarterback Gio Lopez and running back Fluff Bothwell. The Jaguars will have success moving the ball, but LSU's defense gets enough stops in the second half, while quarterback Garrett Nussmeier helps the Tigers pull away in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: LSU 45, South Alabama 24

Lyons: South Alabama has scored 135 points over the last two games, and faces an LSU team that has gotten out to slow starts this season and has a point differential of just +1 in first halves. The Tigers should pull away but don’t be surprised if this one is interesting for a bit.
Prediction: LSU 42, South Alabama 29

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