In five races, Orange County voters can choose sides in the fight over growth

In five key contests that are sparking incendiary debate, local voters face decisions on the November ballot that will help answer a critical question for Central Florida’s future: How will Orange County grow?

Two proposed amendments to the county’s governing document could impose stricter control over development on rural lands. High-profile races for seats on the Board of County Commissioners could tilt the balance of power toward environmentalist-supported or builder-backed candidates once votes are tallied on Nov. 5.

“This is for all the marbles,” said Chuck O’Neal, a longtime Central Florida environmentalist. “I’ve lived in Orange County off and on since 1961 and I don’t think there’s any election that has higher stakes than this one.”

By far the region’s most populated and most intensely developed county, Orange has been growing at a breakneck pace in recent decades, though it still retains large expanses of undeveloped and lightly developed land.

The county added more than 250,000 new residents from 2012 until 2022, according to data compiled by the Tampa Bay Times , the most of any Florida county. Of those, the data shows, about 177,000 reside in unincorporated portions of Orange County, outside of city limits.

Paired with exploding housing prices, the population growth has heightened pressure to build thousands of new homes and apartments to meet the demand – and hopefully lower costs.

But that’s created conflict with longtime residents of rural portions of east and west Orange County, who argue that denser urban-style development would infringe on their pastoral way of life. Their sentiments helped power one of the two charter amendments on the November ballot, which would draw rural boundaries around these lands, and erect higher hurdles to development within them.

It’s a recipe for disaster, say some advocates for economic growth.

“Obviously if you close off large swaths of the county to development, you’re not going to be able to build housing or housing in the numbers that you need to service the demand from a growing population and so housing will likely become more expensive in the county,” said Lee Steinhauer, the government and legal affairs director for the Greater Orlando Builders Association.

Developers have tried unsuccessfully to win county approval four times in the past 12 years to turn idle ranchlands east of the Econ River into hundreds of homes. The most recent defeat was in January when county commissioners voted, by a bare 4-3 margin, against Sustanee, a proposed 1,800-home development there.

Rural east Orange residents triumph over development again

Two commissioners who voted against Sustanee, Nicole Wilson and Mayra Uribe, face re-election challenges. A third, Emily Bonilla, is term-limited and the candidates vying to replace her are former Winter Park Mayor Steve Leary and Kelly Semrad, vice chair of Save Orange County which opposed Sustanee. Leary and Wilson’s opponent, Austin Arthur, are backed by developers, and although each has expressed strong concern about the pace and manner of growth, environmentalists are skeptical.

“If you take out either Kelly Semrad or Nicole Wilson, it’s going to be so much easier for a developer to get the majority plus one to turn a cow pasture into low-density residential,” O’Neal said. But the Sustanee site would be protected by a rural boundary if voters support that charter amendment.

The second ballot measure takes aim at an alternate path to develop county lands: Annexing them into cities, where officials are often more oriented toward growth and the accompanying boost in tax revenue than county commissioners are.

The proposal to limit annexations was touched off by Orlando’s addition earlier this year of roughly 12,000 acres including Tavistock’s planned Sunbridge development. The county, which previously oversaw the land, had no way to stop the move under existing law. So commissioners drafted a charter amendment that would give them veto power.

Landowners are anxious about what that might mean.

Last month, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, owners of the vast Deseret Ranches property, moved to annex 52,000 acres in east Orange into the city limits of Orlando before county officials would have the power to block the move. The proposal sailed through its first vote in front of the Orlando City Council last week, and appears likely to extend the city’s borders east nearly to Brevard County, taking an enormous bite out of the proposed rural boundary.

Environmentalists say the pair of ballot measures would allow for more rational planning for Orange County’s future. Rather than sprawl further, cities could push denser developments and high rises in places like downtown Orlando, they argue, where residents would have greater access to jobs and potential transit options.

“It’s growth management. It gives a more level playing field to the county,” said Marjorie Holt, chair of the Central Florida Sierra Club, of the ballot measures. Existing law, she said, “is really geared toward the municipalities. It’s really pro-annexation.”

The growth issue is a defining one for at least two of the three county commission races on the ballot. The Orlando Sentinel asked all six candidates for three seats on the commission how they plan to vote for the two amendments: All six said they were voting yes on Amendment 9, which would establish rural boundaries and require a super majority vote to increase the density or intensity for development or to remove property from the boundary.

Given what appears to be wide public support for the notion, Eric Grimmer, who helped advance the idea on a citizen-led panel appointed by the county, theorized it’d be too politically damaging for any candidate to say otherwise.

“That would not be a smart campaign move for them,” he said.

But Amendment 10, which would give commissioners veto power over voluntary annexations into cities, is more contentious.

Arthur, a District 1 Republican backed by prominent development interests, was the only candidate who said he planned to cast his ballot in opposition. A political committee supporting Arthur’s candidacy counts those in home building, real estate and development among its funders.

“My opposition is based on the amendment’s attempt to circumvent local governments – an approach that mirrors the very state-level preemption my opponent has spent four years wailing about,” Arthur said in a text message.  “It’s ironic to see this approach now being pushed by her onto our hyperlocal governments.”

He was referencing incumbent Nicole Wilson, a leading voice in favor of the heightened rules. The issue could be a bellwether in the race – the candidates were separated by just two votes out of more than 28,000 cast in August’s primary.

Steve Leary, who also has received funding from some development interests running against Semrad in District 5, said he’d vote for it though he doesn’t like it. Leary said when he was Mayor of Winter Park he fought against preemption all the time. Leary’s political committee is also partially funded by real estate and development interests.

“This is kind of [the county commission] preempting the cities,” he said, adding he didn’t think it would survive a court challenge.

However, Leary said he was voting for it because “I do think we need to figure out what to do with some of these massive annexations that are happening so I think the [annexation amendment] is a stop-gap right now.”

The Greater Orlando Builders Association,  a lobbying group for homebuilders, has endorsed Arthur and Leary. Environmental groups including the Sierra Club have endorsed Wilson and Semrad.

Neither group has endorsed in District 3, where both Mayra Uribe and Linda Stewart said they intended to cast ballots in favor of both amendments aimed at curtailing growth.

Hal H. Kantor, who leads Orlando-based Lowndes Law’s land use division, said he believes the annexation amendment will be held “ultimately to be invalid, because you’re saying to another local government, you can never expand your city unless we allow you to.”

“This is going to be good for lawyers, bad for humans,” he said.

rygillespie@orlandosentinel.com