Helene rains flash flood risks new tropical storm could form late week NW Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico

Photo byweather prediction center

The remnant low of Hurricane Helene continues to meander about in the Ohio Valley. It is a shadow of its former self but we still have an upper air feature that is trapped and it is waiting for some sort of catalyst to move along to the east. Showery rains are occuring today from Tennessee northeastward to Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Western Virginia as well as parts ot Pennsylvania and Western NY. Due to the flooded conditions in the Central and Southern Appalachians especially in Western North & South Carolina, flash flood risks remain elevated today and Monday.

Photo byweather prediction center

Moving ahead to this week we see the remnant low of Helene finally exiting to the east and off the Middle Atlantic coast late Monday into Tuesday taking an area of heavy rain and showers east across Maryland, Northern Virginia and Delware and then finally offshore out to sea Tuesday.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

Much of this week will be uneventful but we are going to be watching the Caribbean sea once again for the possibility of tropical storm development. A gyre of moisture is rotating over Central America and this kicks out a disturbance into the Southwest Caribbean Wednesday. A slow northward component of motion is forecast and conditions will likley be favorable for some development of this system. Late this week into next weekend we could very likely see another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico taking aim for the Gulf coast. However there is much uncertainty at this stage. Weather models are in the timeframe where they may lose systems on one run only to bring them back in the next. Back to back tropical systems going over similar geographic areas is rare but certainly not unheard off. Also conditions for strengthening are questionable given the state of the atmosphere and the cooler Gulf of Mexico waters in the wake of Hurricane Helene. The last thing the Southeast US coast needs right now is a tropical storm or a tropical anything so we hope that the atmosphere backs away from this. A second storm in a week will create conditions that for some in the Southeast would be beyond comprehension.