NHC tracks 3 systems with chances of development on top of Hurricane Isaac, Tropical Storm Joyce

The National Hurricane Center is tracking three developing systems with growing chances to form into the season’s next tropical depression or storm while also following former Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce in the Atlantic.

The most likely to threaten the U.S. is a system the NHC expects to form in the Caribbean that could head into the Gulf of Mexico.

As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook, forecasters predict an area of low pressure to form over the Western Caribbean in a few days.

“Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest,” forecasters said. “This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.”

The NHC gives it a 50% chance of development in the next seven days.

The warm Gulf waters were how Hurricane Helene picked up steam under similar circumstances, starting as a “potential tropical cyclone,” but then growing into a Category 4 major hurricane that devastated Florida’s Gulf Coast before striking the state’s Big Bend region and moving quickly up into the Southeast U.S.

The hurricane is blamed for at least 64 deaths across five states, including 11 in Florida.

Tropical depression 12 formed in the eastern Atlantic and could become a formidable hurricane later this week, forecasters said at the 5 p.m. update. The system is located 585 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving west at 9 mph.

“Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so followed
by a faster rate of intensification by the middle portion of this
week,” forecasters said. “The depression could become a hurricane by Wednesday.”

A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is currently producing limited shower activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The NHC gives it a 50% chance to develop in the next seven days.

Also in the Atlantic, but no threat to land, are former Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce.

As of the NHC’s 5 p.m. advisory, Isaac downgraded from a Category 1 hurricane to a tropical storm with 70 mph sustained winds moving northeast at 12 mph located about 565 miles northwest of the Azores.

“Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph with higher gusts, and continued weakening is forecast over the next
few days,” forecasters said. ” Isaac is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone on Monday.”

As of the NHC’s 5 p.m. advisory, Tropical Storm Joyce had sustained winds of 40 mph as it moved northwest at 6 mph located about 940 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 105 miles.

Forecasters said Joyce is most likely to weaken within the next couple of days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 10 named storms so far including two hurricanes, of which two became major hurricanes.