Musings from Arledge: It’s not there yet, but USC football is on the right path

Focus on these numbers related to USC football: 31.8, 29.2, 34.4 … and 17.

I don’t love everything we saw yesterday, and you and Lincoln Riley probably don’t either. I’m probably going to make some adjustments; I may just start watching USC games at halftime. You guys can hold the fort down for the first two quarters.

That was an ugly first half—three turnovers, letting a wide receiver get deep, untimely penalties. Yuck is the most sophisticated word to describe it.  It looked like a team that wasn’t ready to play. It looked like a team that was still hungover from the Michigan game. It looked like a Clay Helton team of well-hugged warriors.

But we’ve been bragging for weeks that this team is tough and resilient. And they showed it again. Down 21-10, having turned the ball over (again), it looked like things could get out of control. Yet from that point forward, Wisconsin had seven possessions, a little over 110 total yards, a stuffed 4th and 1, a pick-six, and negative seven total points. It was beautiful.

The defense even showed a little extra heart in stuffing Wisconsin late in the game, with quite a few backups in on defense, after the Badgers took a kickoff all the way to the USC 18 yard line. It was a beautiful demonstration of a defense that just wasn’t willing to give an inch, even though the game had already been decided.

But let’s get back to those numbers. USC’s scoring defense in 2021, 2022, and 2023 was 31.8, 29.2,  and 34.4. For those not well-versed in football statistics, those numbers are ghastly. To put it in everyday terms, if you’re a bagger at the grocery store, and every time a product reaches the end of the conveyor belt you pick it up and chuck it at the customer, your annual performance review will be higher than those defensive numbers. In all three years, USC was in or very close to triple digits in the national rankings. That’s UCLA-level stuff. That’s Oregon academics-level futility. It’s not acceptable.

USC’s scoring defense so far this year: 17 points per game . If USC finishes the season there, it will likely be just inside the top ten in the country.

And, no, USC has not finished the season there; two-thirds of the season remain. But the Trojans have played real football teams in their first four games (unlike most of the other ranked teams), and those figures include a pick-six and some short fields (like after the muffed punt yesterday). So it’s not like the numbers are somehow unfairly skewed in favor of the defense.

For years, football commentators have asked what would happen if Lincoln Riley’s program ever developed a defense. Well, don’t look now, Paul Finebaum, but it is reasonable to believe that USC’s defense could finish the season giving up less than 20 points a game. In this age of college football, that’s fantastic.

Stop arguing with me; I know this is a flawed football team with some weaknesses that will probably bite us in future weeks. We’ll get there. But can we just savor what this means for the future of USC football? This defensive performance isn’t the result of an embarrassing early season schedule. It’s not because Lincoln Riley has one or two superstar players who are carrying an otherwise average defense.

No, this defense has modest talent in many areas. But they have a solid scheme, they play fundamentally sound, and they play hard . They hit, and they don’t quit. USC will field defenses with more talent in the coming years. But if USC can hold most of this staff together and supplement any losses with elite replacements, USC football is on its way back.

Let’s focus on the Wisconsin game for just a second. It’s always nice to watch USC out-physical a team that prides itself on physicality. And in the second half that’s what USC did, particularly on defense. The Trojans stuffed a fourth and short, Kamari Ramsey blew up a receiver in the flats on third down, and Raesjon Davis almost split a kick returner in half. It was USC football that way it’s supposed to be played. In the second half.

Not so much the first. Slow starts have a way of catching up with you. If the Trojans don’t fix that problem, they will at some point dig a hole that’s just a little too deep. But I wrote here after the LSU game that when a team is playing a big-time opponent, finds itself down, and finds a way to come back and gut out a victory, it can change a team. It can give a team confidence that it can always come back.  It can make a team resilient. It can help a team never to panic when things go wrong. And we’re seeing that right now.

You want to hear about the other bad stuff? Fine. USC’s offensive line isn’t a question mark; it’s been answered, and the answer right now isn’t good. The line operates on a continuum where one end is “incomprehensible mess” and the other end is “just barely holding it together and barely keeping Miller Moss alive.” That’s not exactly ideal. Anthony Munoz, Tony Boselli, and Bruce Matthews probably don’t love what they’re seeing.

So while USC’s offensive line was not a disaster against Wisconsin, it still wasn’t good. And it still has so little depth that it’s always one or two injuries away from having open tryouts for the student body: Next up, John Doe. John played three years of high school football, never lettered, and has spent the last three years playing pickleball and the tuba. Okay, John, let’s see how you handle an edge rusher.

Another glaring weakness, and this one I didn’t really expect, is USC’s pass rush. The Trojans cannot get to the quarterback with four, and usually they can’t with five. Five sacks in four games is awful. If the other team can consistently pressure your quarterback, and you can’t pressure theirs, you have to be a lot better in a lot of other areas to win that game. That’s just where the Trojans are right now.

Still, I can’t help but enjoy the ride. It’s been so long since USC has been fundamentally sound on defense. It feels like a long time since an entire USC defensive unit played hard for 60 minutes. It’s been so long since the Trojans clamped down in the second half. It’s been so long for all these things that seeing them now just brings me joy.

Once again, D’Anton Lynn and his group of all-star assistants got a great effort from their guys. And once again, the defense turned up the intensity and produced better results after halftime. Every week, it’s fewer points and feweer yards after the half. You’re going to win a lot of games if you do that.

I’ve been told that all of the players on last year’s USC defense are too slow and unathletic. It’s the Jimmys and Joes not the X’s and O’s. That was the crack analysis from many USC fans, splashed all over the WeAreSC message boards. So it’s been nice to see Eric Gentry dominate, Jaylin Smith play like a star, and it was nice to see the too-slow Mason Cobb run down the sideline like a kick returner. I guess D’Anton Lynn, Doug Belk , Eric Henderson , Shaun Nua , and Matt Entz just made everybody faster. That really is a special group. Unleash them on the US Olympic team and the Jamaicans may never win another gold medal.

Coaching matters, people. Of all the fans in the country, USC fans should know. We’ve watched a Master Class of inept coaching over the last decade. Defensively, those days are over. And with Lincoln Riley at the helm, long-term I trust where we’re going on offense, too. We’re not there yet. This team isn’t beating Alabama or Ohio State this year. But it might just beat Penn State . And it might just beat Notre Dame . And it might just make the playoff. You know, if things break just right. And whatever happens, I love the trajectory.

I’m in.

Ja’Kobi Lane is a special player.  He’s just starting to scratch the surface of what he can do, and what he can do is pretty spectacular.  He may be built like a Paris runway model, but that guy has great body control, hands, and catch radius.  He is a mismatch against just about any corner not playing on Sundays.  He doesn’t yet belong in the room with Keyshawn, BMW, Jarrett, Pittman, and London, but he’ll get his ticket for admission soon, probably before the end of this year.

Zachariah Branch seems to be pressing.  He should not have let that punt early in the game roll to the one-yard line.  He probably got chewed out for doing that, so the next time a punt is rolling around he runs over to grab it, even though it was a very different situation and he should not have touched it.  I think he’s feeling the pressure and starting to overthink, maybe even doubt himself.  Call it a sophomore slump.

I also think he’s going to fight through it and be great.  He’s still a young guy who is learning how to play.  He’ll be okay.  But it’s been a tough start for a kid that I really like.

It’s back on the road next week.  Minnesota isn’t great, but they’re also not terrible, and conference road games are tough.  They’re especially tough if you decide to dig a two-score hole early in the game.  Our guys might want to avoid that.

And if they can keep Miller Moss from getting killed, that’s not a terrible idea, either.  Every Saturday it feels like one offensive lineman or another is on the verge of being indicted for attempted murder. There are no quick fixes here; that group is what it is, and with that many young guys getting lots of reps, we—and by we, I especially mean Miller Moss—will just have to take our lumps.

But if the line plays borderline competently, USC can and will score points.  And I trust the defense.  So time to put another game in the W column.  Win this week, and our guys will set up a very tough, very important, and also very winnable game at the Coliseum against Penn State.  Win that one and we could really be doing somewhere.

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