Orioles playoff roundtable: Debating X-factors, roster decisions, series winner and more

Monday marks 229 days since pitchers and catchers reported to spring training.

Since, the Orioles spent six weeks training in Florida and took the field for 162 regular-season games. They played well enough (91-71 record) to deserve even more baseball.

This week, the Orioles will host the Kansas City Royals in the American League wild-card series. The best-of-three series will be hosted at Camden Yards, marking the first time the ballpark has hosted playoff games in consecutive years since 1996-97.

“I’m really proud of this group,” manager Brandon Hyde said after Sunday’s win, the club’s third straight to end the regular season. “We talked about it a lot, but we’ve had quite a bit of adversity this year. Going to the big leagues and winning 91 games, it’s an incredible job by the guys in that room.”

Ahead of Game 1 on Tuesday, Orioles beat reporters Jacob Calvin Meyer and Matt Weyrich, Baltimore Sun Media reporter Taylor Lyons and sports content editor C.J. Doon preview the AL wild-card series by answering the biggest questions facing the club.

Who should the top five hitters in the Orioles’ lineup be?

Meyer: The ones who will get the most hits. See, it’s not that hard, Hyde. You just get a magic-8 ball, ask it lineup questions and then go with that. On a serious note, it doesn’t matter. If Gunnar Henderson goes 0-for-5 on Tuesday, what difference does it make if it comes in the leadoff spot or the No. 3 hole? If Adley Rutschman breaks out of his second-half slump for a big game, who cares if it comes hitting No. 2 or No. 5? And Anthony Santander is a home run machine whether he’s hitting No. 3, cleanup or during batting practice. OK, now that I got that diatribe about lineup construction out of the way: versus left-hander Cole Ragans in Game 1: Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Rutschman, Santander and Ryan Mountcastle, in that order; versus right-handers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha in Games 2 and 3: Henderson, Westburg, Santander, Colton Cowser and Rutschman, in that order.

Weyrich: To answer the question literally, the top five hitters in the Orioles’ lineup should be Henderson, Rutschman, Westburg, Santander and Mountcastle against Ragans in Game 1. For Games 2 and 3, with Lugo and Wacha scheduled to pitch, the lineup should go Henderson, Cowser, Santander, Westburg and Ryan O’Hearn.

Henderson at leadoff is a lock and Santander has hit fourth or higher every game he’s started since Aug. 15. The rest, however, is up in the air. Rutschman, despite his second-half slide, led the team with a .902 OPS against lefties this season and he figures to be near the top of the order against Ragans. Yet Westburg hit second in five of six games after returning from the injured list. Hyde will likely bounce Cowser behind Mountcastle for Game 1 before moving him and O’Hearn near the top after that.

Lyons: Henderson should lead off regardless of the opposing pitcher. Versus left-handers, the Orioles could follow by loading up on righty bats with Westburg and Mountcastle and switch-hitters Santander and Rutschman in some order.

This spot is where the Orioles were doomed last October when the Rangers deployed two left-handed starters and tore through Baltimore’s left-handed heavy lineup. But Westburg took a step forward, and Rutschman and Santander have more even splits this season. For all of the catcher’s second-half struggles, he still entered Sunday hitting .329 against left-handers this season. And Mountcastle’s return allows O’Hearn to sit.

Facing right-handed starters, the Orioles can swap first basemen, insert Cowser for Westburg’s spot near the top of the order and slide Rutschman down to create a top five of Henderson, Cowser, Santander, O’Hearn and Westburg. Heston Kjerstad could follow or crack into that group.

Doon: In Game 1, Henderson, Rutschman, Westburg, Santander and Mountcastle. In Games 2 and 3, Henderson, Rutschman, Santander, Cowser and O’Hearn.

Some people might quibble with the idea of Rutschman batting second considering his prolonged second-half slump, but he and Henderson are the stars of this team and should be given the chance to show it at the top of the lineup. Westburg and Mountcastle have also proven their mettle before and after missing extended time with injuries. Santander, Cowser and O’Hearn bring plenty of pop.

It will be interesting to see how aggressive the Orioles are against Ragans, who was both dominant (6 1/3 scoreless innings with one hit allowed and seven strikeouts) and terrible (nine hits, seven earned runs allowed in 1 2/3 innings) in two starts against Baltimore this season. The Orioles have been at their best when being patient at the plate, but scoring first is going to be important in front of a juiced-up home crowd.

Which reliever is most critical to the Orioles winning the series?

Meyer: Let’s cheat and pick two: left-handers Cionel Pérez and Danny Coulombe. It is conceivable for Pérez to pitch in virtually every single playoff game. If his arm were made of rubber, Pérez almost certainly would with how much Hyde relies on him against left-handed hitters. But September was Pérez’s worst month of the season (9.00 ERA), so getting him on track in October is imperative. Coulombe, meanwhile, is a wild card. He was one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball before his elbow surgery in June, and while he’s yet to allow a run in four outings since his late-September return, he hasn’t looked as sharp and Hyde has yet to use him in high-leverage situations. If Coulombe can return to the reliever he was before his injury, that would provide a boost to a bullpen in need of one.

Weyrich: The Orioles’ bullpen is expected to skew lefty-heavy for this series, both because of the personnel they have and the Royals’ struggles against southpaws (.674 OPS) this season. But the lack of right-handers will also put more pressure on those the Orioles do put on the roster to come up with outs against the middle of the Royals’ lineup, particularly when right-handed hitters Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are at the plate.

That sets up Yennier Cano to handle some of the most high-leverage situations in the series. He doesn’t handle the ninth inning often, but Cano has been Hyde’s most trusted option in late innings when a pocket of right-handed hitters in the middle of the opposing lineup is due up. After a shaky September in which he dealt with forearm tightness and allowed five earned runs in seven innings (6.43 ERA), Cano’s performance will be crucial.

Lyons: The Orioles’ bullpen has been shaky as of late, a stretch that’s coincided with an up-and-down Seranthony Domínguez, who’s allowed five earned runs over his past five appearances.

Hyde can roll with a closer-by-committee approach, leaning on matchups and hot hands for ninth innings rather than tabbing Domínguez as the go-to guy. Lockdown bullpens are a staple of teams that make deep postseason runs. Domínguez returning to his August form will help get the Orioles there.

Doon: It’s Domínguez. Nobody can fill the Félix Bautista-sized hole in the back of the bullpen — not even a future Hall of Famer — but the Orioles have to lean on the veteran right-hander’s playoff experience. Domínguez has pitched 16 postseason innings, by far the most of anyone in Hyde’s bullpen, and has recorded a sparkling 1.13 ERA. He’s allowed six home runs in 22 2/3 innings with the Orioles since coming over from the Phillies at the trade deadline, but he has the best strikeout numbers among Baltimore’s relievers. You need that swing-and-miss stuff in high-leverage situations, even if it sometimes backfires.

What roles should Jackson Holliday and Cade Povich have in the postseason?

Meyer: I am bullish (and have been all season) on Holliday, whose most likely role is as a bench player and pinch runner. Despite his struggles as a rookie, the 20-year-old has flashed a ceiling that shouldn’t be ignored in the postseason. He homered five times in a 10-game stretch in August to help carry the Orioles’ offense. He smacked four hits in a game Aug. 16 to become the youngest Oriole to do so since Brooks Robinson. Saturday, he became the youngest player to reach base five times in a game since Juan Soto. Holliday made changes to his swing late in the season — removing his difficult-to-time leg kick and opting for a simpler toe tap — and the results in a small sample have been striking: 5-for-7, a double and three walks. He won’t play over Ramón Urías at third, and nor should he. But if the Orioles go on a run and Urías isn’t crushing the ball as he did in August, this lineup can handle — and perhaps can benefit from — a high-variance player like Holliday in it.

For Povich, it’s been a bit surprising to see the Orioles seemingly choose him over Albert Suárez for the AL wild-card roster. Povich will be the Orioles’ fifth-best lefty in the bullpen, giving Hyde only four right-handers. The rookie was excellent in September, and he’s a playoff-worthy arm. But it’s hard to imagine the scenarios in which Povich appears in the wild-card series beyond a blowout or an extra-inning game that goes more than 12 or 13 innings. Even if starters Zach Eflin or Dean Kremer are pulled early, Hyde is far more likely to go to his short relievers if the game is within reach than piggyback Povich, who posted a 5.20 ERA and 1.431 WHIP as a rookie.

Weyrich: Holliday’s defense and speed alone warrant a spot on the Orioles’ playoff roster, even if his offensive production as a rookie (.565 OPS) left much to be desired. He has shown a penchant for coming through in clutch situations with a .755 OPS when batting with runners in scoring position, offering a pinch-hit option against right-handers. Holliday will get his chance to make his mark on the postseason, but he will likely have to make the most of limited opportunities.

As for Povich, the Orioles will hope not to need him. Not because of his potential — he showed a lot of it with a 2.60 ERA in September — but because he will likely be their top option to pitch multiple innings if one of their starters is forced out of a game early. Backing up a rotation of right-handers, Povich will offer the Royals a different look from the opposite side of the mound, which could force skipper Matt Quatraro to make some tough pinch-hit decisions early.

Lyons: Holliday’s impact has diminished lately as the infield got healthier and his own struggles continued. Meanwhile, September has been friendly to Povich. It’ll be a tight squeeze to get Povich on the postseason roster, but he’s earned a spot.

In Holliday, the Orioles have a left-handed bench bat who can play second base and shortstop and is one of the fastest players in MLB. That’s an archetype Hyde will surely utilize late in games, but the rookie won’t be asked to do more than that.

Povich would provide the best length of anyone in the bullpen if Baltimore gets in a lopsided affair. The rookie left-hander could also start the opening game of the American League Division Series if the Orioles aren’t comfortable pitching Corbin Burnes on short rest. The decision will come down to how many left-handers Baltimore wants to carry. He’s forced his team’s hand.

Doon: Holliday’s speed might be the most underrated part of his game. He’s only stolen four bases with the Orioles, but with Jorge Mateo injured, he could step into a valuable role as a pinch runner. I’m skeptical Hyde will trust the 20-year-old enough to bring him off the bench to hit in big moments, but Holliday has certainly earned the opportunity with some impressive performances in the back half of the season.

Povich is a tough one to project. He’s been much more confident of late, pitching at least five innings and allowing two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. But he’s never pitched out of the bullpen with the Orioles, and who knows how he’ll respond to that kind of pressure in the postseason. As an emergency piggyback option behind the Orioles’ top pitchers or a potential Game 1 starter in the ALDS against — gulp — Gerrit Cole, he could be extremely valuable. I’d take my chances with him.

Who is the Orioles’ X-factor in the series?

Meyer: It has to be Rutschman, right? How can it not be? Henderson is this team’s best player, and Burnes might be their most important in October. But is there a scenario in which the Orioles win the World Series without Rutschman returning to the hitter he was for the first two and a half years of his career? It was a challenging second half for Rutschman, who hit .207 with a .585 OPS since the All-Star break. That won’t matter if he plays like himself in October.

Weyrich: While Henderson might be the most important player in the Orioles’ lineup, Westburg is the biggest X-factor. The All-Star infielder was sorely missed while working his way back from a fractured hand, departing an offense that was averaging 5.07 runs per game when he got hurt and returning to one that put up only 4.37 without him.

Westburg came back just in time for the final week of the season and offered glimpses of the steady producer who broke out in the first half, going 5-for-26 (.192) with a double and five RBIs in six games. It wasn’t a whole lot of at-bats for Westburg to get his timing back, making his production as uncertain as it is vital. But the Orioles will lean on him to be the player he was the first four months of the season. How he responds will go a long way toward determining the outcome of their season.

Lyons: Zach Eflin could have the biggest say in the result of this series. He’ll likely start a Game 2 that can either push the Orioles to the next round or send them home.

In his lone start against Kansas City this year (while with Tampa Bay), the right-hander allowed five runs over five innings in a 10-8 Rays win. That was his third-to-last start with his former club. Since then, he’s essentially been a new pitcher.

Doon: Mountcastle. Since returning in late September after missing a month with a wrist injury, the 27-year-old slugger has posted a .792 OPS. He’s blasted just one home run in his past 42 games, but he’s been among the Orioles’ most productive hitters when healthy. A hot October at the plate — and stellar defense at first base — could make all the difference.

Who is the Royals’ X-factor in the series?

Meyer: One player to be concerned about is a 36-year-old, past-his-prime outfielder on his third team this year with a .587 OPS. Sure, those numbers aren’t scary, but these are: a .313 batting average and .846 OPS in 115 postseason at-bats. Tommy Pham has played for nine teams in his 11-year career, and he joined the Royals in September after the St. Louis Cardinals designated him for assignment. Pham, the Royals’ leadoff hitter, shined in the 2023 postseason with the National League-champion Arizona Diamondbacks, and there’s no reason he can’t do the same this October.

Weyrich: With an offense largely dependent on Witt and Perez, the Royals will look to their pitching staff to lead an upset. Their rotation has the arms to offer plenty of hope, but their bullpen is much more unpredictable. That’s why closer Lucas Erceg, acquired from the Oakland Athletics at the trade deadline, is key to their chances of advancing.

Erceg has put up a 2.88 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 25 innings since changing teams, taking over the closer role for a Royals bullpen that had struggled to find someone to handle ninth-inning duties since the start of last season. He did more than that, recording at least four outs in six of his 23 appearances. The late-season emergence of Kris Bubic has helped provide some stability to the late innings, but the Orioles will hope to wear down Kansas City’s starters early enough to avoid Erceg being the only reliever they get to face.

Lyons: For the same reason I chose Eflin as one of the Orioles’ most important player of the series, I’ll choose Kansas City’s No. 2 starting pitcher Lugo. He’ll likely face Eflin on Wednesday in what will be either a win-and-advance game for the Royals, or one that keeps them alive for another day.

Lugo made the All-Star team this season, but the 34-year-old has a 4.07 ERA since the beginning of July. In a duel with Eflin, Lugo will look to be the better of the pair as the Royals also look to win their first postseason series in nearly a decade. He faced the Orioles once this season, allowing four runs and failing to complete six innings.

Doon: Vinnie Pasquantino. If the left-handed slugger really does have a chance to return from a broken right thumb suffered at the end of August, the Orioles should be concerned. Before his injury, the “Pasquatch” had 97 RBIs — a mark that ranked 19th in baseball at the end of the regular season despite the first baseman playing just 131 games. Adding that kind of production and power (19 home runs) to Kansas City’s lineup might tilt the series.

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Which team wins the series, and in how many games?

Meyer: I’m often a negative Nancy to end these roundtables. Who will win the ALDS between the Orioles and Rangers? “Rangers in five games.” How many games will the Orioles win in 2024? “88 games.” Is this just a shameless way to point out my correct predictions in the past? Yes. Is it also a way to prove my glass-half-empty bona fides before my prediction? Also yes. So here it is: The Orioles sweep the Royals, and the games aren’t particularly close.

Weyrich: Ah, the dreaded series prediction. I’ll go bold with mine: The Orioles sweep the Royals in two games to set up an AL East showdown in the ALDS against the New York Yankees. Kansas City’s starters are fearsome, but the Orioles’ counter of Burnes and Eflin is enough for their lineup to eke out a pair of victories.

Home-field advantage will loom large in this one. The Royals were almost a completely different team when playing at their friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium, going 45-36. On the road, however, they finished 41-40 with a significant difference in offensive production. The Orioles will show they’ve rediscovered their “mojo” and take care of business at home.

Lyons: I’ll take the Orioles in three. Since the wild-card series went to a three-game set in 2022, the team that wins the opener has taken the series every time. Tuesday is the exact game Baltimore acquired Burnes for. And with a more experienced pitching staff beyond their ace and a more balanced lineup, this year’s Orioles do what the club hasn’t in a decade: Win a playoff series.

Doon: Orioles in three. I’m tempted to pick a sweep given how well Burnes and Eflin have pitched this season, but Baltimore’s bullpen can’t be trusted. Witt is a transcendent player who could thrive on the postseason stage, and Perez seems to only be getting better with age. Ragans and Lugo could match zeroes with the Orioles’ starters, which might make for some late-inning drama. It’s hard to envision the Royals going down without a fight, but it’s even harder to see the Orioles being one-and-done in the playoffs for the second straight year.

AL wild-card series, Game 1

Royals at Orioles

(Best-of-three)

Tuesday, 4:08 p.m.

TV: ESPN2

Radio: 97.9 FM, 101.5 FM, 1090 AM