Cheney Lake is drying up. Wichita says the drought plan is working

One big rainstorm won’t fix Wichita’s water shortage.

Dark storm clouds that hovered over Wichita one mid-September softened the ring of cracked dirt that’s inched wider around Cheney Lake each week, but it didn’t erase the underlying problem.

Kansas is in a drought.

For much of the last year, Cheney Lake, Wichita’s primary water source, has drained away under hotter and drier -than-average conditions. The most recent federal drought map casts Cheney Lake under a deep brown blob that signals an ominous designation: Drought persists.

Wichita leaders declared a drought in January 2023, kicking off the first stage of the city’s drought plan — voluntary water conservation. In late July, City Manager Robert Layton looked at water levels at Cheney Lake, about 30 miles west of downtown Wichita, and announced the beginning of the second drought stage in August. This triggered mandatory water restrictions and limited watering of most outdoor plants to one day a week.

Water restrictions may continue for many months, if not years, city staff said.

“Conservation alone is not going to overcome the evaporation rate with a lack of inflow —it just won’t,” Don Henry, Wichita’s assistant public works director, said.

Worst-case scenario plan

In 2013, Wichita emerged from a withering drought that affected much of the region. The drought stretched from 2010 to 2012 and covered about three-fourths of Kansas. The state estimated farmers suffered nearly $1.7 billion in losses in 2011 from the drought.

Henry said it was clear then that the city needed a drought plan. KMUW reported in 2013 that city leaders hadn’t enacted major water restrictions since the early 1990s.

While responding to a three-year drought, city officials decided to plan for a longer contingency.

“Eight years of this is what that drought response plan is meant for — it’s not meant to stabilize the level in Cheney,” Henry said. “It’s meant to stretch (Cheney Lake) out as a supply as it dwindles.”

The plan is modeled after the kind of drought Wichitans endured during the Dust Bowl, Henry said. The goal is to sustain “jobs and work and a reasonable quality of life” if another catastrophic drought hits.

“We’re taking an abundance of caution and a conservative approach to protecting our resources,” Henry said.

What’s in Wichita’s plan?

The plan carves out four phases of city response.

Wichita decided to use a 12-month average of the conservation pool level, the reservoir level that fully provides enough water for recreation and the city’s use. Using the 12-month average of water levels in that pool helps smooth out seasonal variation so normal dips don’t set off a drought response.

Current numbers indicate that the 12-month average is sitting around 57.8%

The first stage is triggered when the average dips below 89%. It calls for a public awareness campaign and voluntary water conservation.

Stage 2 happens when the rolling average dips below 69%. That’s when mandatory water restrictions kick in. Businesses that rely on water use — think golf courses, car washes and nurseries — can operate normally.

The city is divided into four quadrants, and each section is assigned one day when residents can water their lawns or gardens. If someone is caught watering a different day, they get a warning, before they’re handed a $50 fine for the second offense and $100 fine for each following offense.

That’s where Wichita is now. The city issued 302 warning letters since the start of water restrictions on Aug. 5. Fines started rolling out last week.

“During the last two months, efforts on conservation were prioritized over issuing fines,” Megan Lovely, the city’s communications manager, said. “Going forward, staff plans to increase enforcement — including issuance of fines if warranted.”

When the rolling average for Cheney Lake crosses below 50%, stage 3 starts. All outdoor watering is banned and fines jump from $50 and $100 to $250 and $500. Businesses are still exempt from these rules until the fourth stage.

When the rolling average hits 35% or below, all outdoor water use is banned for all businesses and residents. City water customers will have to reduce their water use — inside and outside — by 15%. The only caveat here is for major hospitals, which are exempt from water reductions to maintain patient care.

If fines and warnings don’t work in this stage, city staff can take more direct measures by implementing flow restrictors on homes and businesses.

Is it working?

Many structures in Cheney Lake now feel out of place. “No wake zone” buoys are tipped over and shored up without water to float in. The docks at the Ninnescah Sailing Association stand above cracked beds of dirt. A fuel dock sits at least 20 feet from any standing water, slowly becoming surrounded by weeds and grasses.

These are the visible signs that Cheney Lake has reached its lowest level since February 2013 — about 8 feet below normal.

On Sept. 20, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported that Cheney Lake was just 56.6% full.

A good drenching from a recent 2 inches of rain edged that number up by one percentage point, but lake levels are falling again. Mayor Lily Wu said earlier in September that the city predicts that the conservation pool will hit 55% full in October.

Current numbers show that daily water usage dropped by about a fourth to 55 million gallons a day after residents were told the city was in stage 2.

“We’re seeing the level of conservation that we’re looking for,” Henry said. “What we haven’t seen is any additional inflow into Cheney. In order to offset that lack of inflow, we need to lean forward and have even more conservation.”

Water usage has settled into a rhythm — like a heartbeat. It spikes on Tuesdays, when the city’s northeast quadrant is free to water, and drops on weekends, when watering is banned.

Andrew Van Tassell, Wichita’s special projects coordinator with public works and utilities, and Henry point to the weekly rise and fall as proof that the plan is working.

“The public has really responded more than we anticipated,” Van Tassell said.

An eye to the skies

Matthew Sittel, assistant state climatologist at Kansas State University, and his colleagues assess drought conditions by poring over decades of climate data. He said it is “historically improbable” that Wichita and Cheney Lake will see near-normal precipitation levels by the end of the year.

“The odds of erasing the drought before the end of the year are really low,” Sittel said.

Wichita and Cheney Lake are in their fifth consecutive year of below-average precipitation — resulting in a shortfall of over 2 feet. Weather patterns over the last 30 years show the area averages around 34 inches of precipitation a year.

With some of the driest months ahead, Wichita needs about 13 more inches to reach its yearly average. Sittel said since 1888, only one year — 1998 — saw that much precipitation between October and December.

What lies ahead for Wichita and Cheney Lake in the long term remains uncertain, Sittel said.  Weather forecasting, while good, only gives a clear picture of what’s to come in the next week or two.

As the climate changes, he said what he hears most often is that rather than less rain, there will be wider swings from year to year. Even so, Sittel and city leaders’ advice to Wichitans remains the same: Conserve your water.

“The drought will break and we can return to normal,” Henry said. “But right now, we need to buckle down and change the way we do things.”

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