Dollar firm after Powell pushes back on aggressive easing bets

By Amanda Cooper and Brigid Riley

LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rallied broadly on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against bets on more supersized interest rate cuts.

The yen steadied close to the middle of its range against the dollar over the past month, after a volatile two days as traders sized up Japan's incoming prime minister and his cabinet.

The Australian dollar edged towards Monday's high after upbeat domestic retail sales data, while the euro was set for a third daily loss, following inflation data that made a rate cut this month more likely.

Over in the United States, Powell adopted a more hawkish tone in a speech at a conference in Tennessee, saying the world's biggest central bank would likely stick with quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts moving forward.

"This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly," he said.

Traders remain certain that the Fed will cut again at the next policy setting meeting in November, but slashed expectations for a 50 basis-point (bps) reduction to 35.4% from 53.3% a day earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

"The door has not been closed on a 50 bps cut, because if economic data tanks then such a cut is warranted. But Powell clearly thinks markets are overly excited" about upcoming cuts, said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.

The Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a larger-than-expected half-point reduction last month.

Powell's speech came ahead of a heavy week of U.S. data, including the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index later on Tuesday and non-manufacturing report on Thursday, followed by Friday's potentially crucial monthly jobs figures.

If the ISM non-manufacturing data and jobs report come in above expectations again this month, the dollar could see a "decent bounce" higher before eventually resuming its downward track, said Simpson.

The dollar index rose 0.1% to 100.87 as of 0403 GMT, after pushing 0.3% higher on Monday, when it posted a third successive monthly decline, with a near 1% fall in September.

The dollar was up 0.3% at 144.01 yen, after whipsawing from as high as 146.495 yen on Friday to as low as 141.65 yen on Monday.

Shigeru Ishiba, due to be confirmed as Japan's new premier later on Tuesday, is seen by markets as a monetary policy hawk, despite a recent toning down of rhetoric on the need for policy normalisation.

He won his party's leadership vote on Friday in one of the closest-ever races, and is now attempting to unify the party after calling a snap general election for Oct. 27.

Minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) September meeting showed on Tuesday that policymakers discussed the need for caution over near-term interest rate hikes, with little impact on the market.

"Ultimately, our view on the BOJ remains more hawkish than the market's pricing for 13 bps of tightening over the next three meetings, so even if the tactical picture is turning more skewed to the upside for dollar/yen – not least because of risks of correction higher in dollar rates – we are not ready to call for a sustained, multi-month yen underperformance," ING strategist Francesco Pesole said.

The euro traded not far from Monday's one-week low following a drop in German inflation to the lowest since early 2021, boosting speculation about another rate reduction this month.

The euro was modestly lower at $1.1124 after dropping as low as $1.1113 in the previous session.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told parliament "the latest developments strengthen our confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner," and this should be reflected in the Oct. 17 policy decision.

Deutsche Bank on Tuesday changed its ECB call, saying they now saw another cut in October, from an earlier forecast for a next cut in December.

The Aussie was flat at $0.6914, holding near the 1-1/2 year peak of $0.6943 that it hit on Monday after Australian retail sales rebounded more than expected in August.

The kiwi traded at $0.6321, down 0.5%.

(Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Kim Coghill & Shri Navaratnam)