How do things stand in the 12-team College Football Playoff picture after Week 5 of the season, according to Heather Dinich?
Dinich, ESPN’s foremost College Football Playoff insider, gave her latest projection of the CFP selection committee’s top 12 if that ranking were released today.
Dinich’s updated projection (subscription required) has Clemson (3-1, 2-0 ACC) at No. 9.
“If Clemson doesn’t win the ACC, it could have a difficult time earning one of the seven at-large bids if some of its opponents can’t play their way into the committee’s ranking,” Dinich wrote of what you need to know about the Tigers as it relates to the playoff.
“The Tigers would also lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Georgia, which could be competing for an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the SEC. Right now, Louisville is the only ranked opponent Clemson faces during the regular season — and the Cardinals just lost to Notre Dame.”
The 12-team playoff field will feature the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, as determined by the CFP selection committee. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and receive first-round byes, with the fifth highest-ranked conference champion being seeded where it was ranked, or at No. 12 if its final ranking lands outside of the top 12.
Alabama is No. 1 in Dinich’s projected CFP top 12 right now, with Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State and Georgia comprising the rest of the top five, in that order. Penn State is No. 6, followed by Oregon, Miami and then Clemson. Michigan, Kansas State and Ole Miss round out the top 12 behind Clemson — which would see a rematch with Georgia in the first round, based on the rankings currently projected by Dinich.
“Based on the rankings above, the top four seeds would be: No. 1 Alabama (SEC champ), No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ), No. 3 Miami (ACC champ) and No. 4 Kansas State (Big 12 champ). Each would receive a bye,” Dinich wrote. “Eight remaining seeds would play on-campus first-round games. Those matchups would be: No. 12 TBD (fifth conference champ) at No. 5 Texas; No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Tennessee; No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Georgia; and No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Penn State.”
Along with projecting the CFP top 12, Dinich highlighted five playoff lessons learned in in the month of September.
One of those things Dinich touched on is Miami and Clemson being the top playoff contenders from the ACC.
“Florida State won the preseason hype, but Miami and Clemson are winning the ACC race,” Dinich wrote. “The Seminoles, who received a landslide 81 first-place votes in the preseason media poll, were eliminated with their 0-3 start that included losses to conference opponents Georgia Tech and Boston College. The Canes are undefeated, and Clemson has been on a tear since losing the season opener to Georgia. These teams don’t play each other during the regular season but are on a collision course for the ACC championship game. According to ESPN Research, Miami and Clemson each have the highest percentages to reach the ACC title game, with both at least 42%. Louisville can still win the ACC and earn an automatic bid, but if the Cardinals are fighting for one of seven at-large spots, they’ll lose the head-to-head tiebreaker now to Notre Dame.”
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