Preview: UFC 307 ‘Pereira vs. Rountree’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday lands in Salt Lake City for the third year in a row and does so with a pair of title bouts atop the bill. Light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira returns to action, and while Khalil Rountree was not on anyone’s mind as the next title challenger, their UFC 307 main event should result in an entertainingly violent encounter at the Delta Center. Beyond that, the women’s bantamweight division finds itself in the spotlight. Raquel Pennington aims for a successful first title defense against former champion Julianna Pena , and two-time Olympic gold medalist Kayla Harrison lurks further down the draw as the obvious next No. 1 contender if she can get past Ketlen Vieira . Meanwhile, Jose Aldo suits up for the second time in five months to try and turn back another rising young talent in Mario Bautista at 135 pounds, and middleweights round out the lineup with a showdown between Roman Dolidze and Kevin Holland that could go any number of ways.

Now to the UFC 307 “Pereira vs. Rountree” preview:

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

#2 P4P | Alex Pereira (11-2, 8-1 UFC) vs. #8 LHW | Khalil Rountree (13-5, 9-5 UFC)

ODDS: Pereira (-535), Rountree (+400)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

The Pereira business continues to be a boon for the UFC, as he steps in once again to headline another card where the company had no obvious main event—the third time he’s done so in 2024. Given that Pereira figured to be a short-term curiosity when the UFC signed him in 2021, it’s safe to say he’s overachieved in becoming one of the promotion’s most reliable high-level fighters. An elite kickboxer, Pereira had dabbled in mixed martial arts over the years but only truly committed himself to his new sport shortly before his UFC debut. It was a move prompted by trash talk from then-middleweight champion Israel Adesanya , an old rival of Pereira from their kickboxing days. The plan seemed clear from there: Get Pereira to a title shot against Adesanya via the easiest path possible. Given that Pereira was—and mostly remains so—a one-dimensional striker, both “Poatan” and the UFC matchmakers would have to thread a needle to do so. The middleweight division obliged. After two setup wins, Pereira earned a title shot with a knockout of Sean Strickland . That set Pereira up for a two-fight series with Adesanya that proved a boon to everyone involved. Their first fight went much the same as their kickboxing bouts, with Adesanya winning the balance of the encounter before getting knocked out, while the rematch saw him return the favor in a major bit of catharsis. With the Adesanya rivalry over for the time being, Pereira—who’s seemingly absolutely massive no matter what division he competes in—decided to cut less weight and ply his trade at light heavyweight. He’s revitalized the division in the process. Jan Blachowicz nearly ended the fun before it started, turning things into enough of a grind that Pereira only won a split decision, but the Brazilian wound up winning the vacant belt in his next fight, with wins over Jiri Prochazka (twice) and Jamahal Hill all turning into entertainingly violent affairs that have seen him knock out opponents foolish enough to strike with him. To that end, it seemed sure that Dagestani wrestler Magomed Ankalaev would be up next for Pereira, but instead, the UFC has decided to hold off on that idea for a bit longer, moving down the rankings and going with the most exciting challenger available in Rountree.

Merit aside, even getting within breathing distance of a title shot is an impressive bit of business towards Rountree, who’s dug his way out of busted prospect status. An absolute terror on the feet, “The War Horse” was a clear favorite to win the 2016 season of “The Ultimate Fighter” but quickly got undone by his lack of a ground game, both over the course of the season and in his subsequent UFC fights. There was little consistency in Rountree’s career from there. His wins were still among some of the most violent and electric results in the sport, but he would also often seemingly find a way to lose—whether via getting knocked out himself, taken down or just having fights where he didn’t pull the trigger. A 2021 defeat to Marcin Prachnio , which was one of the latter type of fights, seemed to be the final straw as far as the hopes that Rountree would finally put it all together, particularly since he had teased retirement shortly beforehand. Instead, Rountree’s found himself on the best run of his career, with five straight wins. He’s still purely a striker, but he’s now remarkably consistent, as shown by his winning a war of attrition with Anthony Smith via brutal third-round knockout to cap off his 2023 campaign. Rountree hasn’t been in action since—another bit of context that makes the timing of this title shot a bit strange. He was slated to fight earlier this year, only to be briefly suspended due to self-reporting his ingestion of a tainted supplement. Even if this should probably be Pereira defending his title against Ankalaev, it’s hard to argue with this level of promised violence, particularly since Rountree has a shot at an upset. Neither man has enough defense to feel entirely safe against the knockout threat he’ll be facing, so it wouldn’t be a shock if Rountree won that race to a finish. With that said, there’s a clear choice here given each man’s resume if this is going to wind up as a pure kickboxing match. The pick is Pereira via first-round knockout.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Rountree
Pennington vs. Pena
Bautista vs. Aldo
Harrison vs. Vieira
Holland vs. Dolidze
The Prelims

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship

#8 P4P | Raquel Pennington (16-8, 13-5 UFC) vs. #5 P4P | Julianna Pena (11-5, 7-3 UFC)

ODDS: Pennington (-162), Pena (+136)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

The UFC women’s bantamweight division is still struggling to find its footing after the retirement of Amanda Nunes , but this fight should hopefully help get some momentum going. Pennington won the vacant title with a win over Mayra Bueno Silva in January, and while “Rocky” might not be the most exciting fighter, the result was an impressive culmination of over a decade of hard work. Pennington fought a tough level of competition prior to her UFC debut, leading to a well-deserved reputation as being much better than her record. That held true even through her first handful of fights in the UFC. Pennington still won her fair share of bouts, but losses to Jessica Andrade and Holly Holm were each split decisions that easily could’ve gone her way. Eventually, Pennington was able to string together four straight wins to put herself in the contender mix at the end of 2016, though she wound up barely avoiding tragedy shortly thereafter. Pennington was expected to receive a title shot but instead spent a year and a half out of action after nearly losing her leg in an ATV accident. Surprisingly, an immediate title shot was waiting for Pennington upon her recovery, which might not have been the best news, given that the ensuing fight against Nunes was an extended beating that only made it to the fifth round thanks to the challenger’s toughness. Pennington’s next fight, an uninspiring loss to Germaine de Randamie , suggested that some combination of injuries and the Nunes encounter had drained the Colorado Springs native of her effectiveness, but she eventually bounced back to a surprising degree. She should probably be undefeated in the eight fights since the de Randamie bout, with her only loss coming via another controversial split decision against Holm. It’s hard to say there’s a singular standout performance among Pennington’s current six-fight winning streak, but her strength has always been her consistency, which has come through even in those individual fights. Her title win against Bueno Silva was a clear example of that, with the Brazilian burning herself out after some early success while Pennington just chugged along for five steady rounds. Kayla Harrison is lurking—both as a future contender and in a fight earlier on this card—but for now, Pennington has to defend her belt against Pena, settling some business from their season of “The Ultimate Fighter” 11 years ago.

A former bantamweight champion in her own right, Pena’s had one of the more baffling UFC careers of the last decade. Pena won that season of “The Ultimate Fighter” and figured to quickly march up the bantamweight division, only to have her career immediately derailed thanks to a massive knee injury. “The Venezuelan Vixen” looked solid upon her return, swamping opponents with her aggressive wrestling and grappling game up until the point that she fell into a Valentina Shevchenko armbar in 2017, suffering her first UFC loss. From there, Pena went from potential title contender to non-factor over the next few years. Pregnancy and more injuries kept Pena out of action more often than not, and her results were inconsistent and included a submission loss to de Randamie—a frankly unthinkable result for a standout grappler against a seemingly one-dimensional kickboxer. Within a year of the de Randamie loss, Pena had rebounded with a win over Sara McMann and suddenly found herself as Nunes’ top contender. Nunes didn’t exactly have much in the way of fresh contenders lined up, and Pena had talked enough trash to seemingly set herself up as a speed bump for the two-division champion. Instead, Pena wound up authoring what’s still one of the unlikeliest upsets in mixed martial arts history. Nunes dominated the fight for a round before suddenly tiring out and imploding, allowing Pena to take over and score a submission in the second round. The win is an achievement that Pena will always have, though it’s hard to say she’s had much momentum in the three years since. The rematch was a one-sided win for Nunes where Pena accomplished little, and yet another injury layoff took her out of a scheduled trilogy fight that now looks unlikely to happen due to the Brazilian’s retirement. Pena seems convinced she can lure Nunes out of retirement once she wins the title back, and it’s a coinflip as to whether or not step one of that plan will come to fruition. Pena’s always had an impressive level of commitment to simply trying to make things happen in her fights, but Pennington, for her part, has always been surprisingly stout and difficult for opponents to control. This fight figures to turn out as a fairly ugly affair. Both women are at their best once their opponents hit their breaking points, but they’ve also each made a career out of refusing to break and not going away. The lean is that Pennington can stall her challenger out more often than not. The pick is Pennington via decision.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Rountree
Pennington vs. Pena
Bautista vs. Aldo
Harrison vs. Vieira
Holland vs. Dolidze
The Prelims

Bantamweights

#11 BW | Mario Bautista (14-2, 8-2 UFC) vs. #10 BW | Jose Aldo (32-8, 14-7 UFC)

ODDS: Bautista (-155), Aldo (+130)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

How long can Aldo keep this up? If Aldo had retired a decade ago, he’d still have a career that ranked among the all-time greats. Initially a whirlwind of violence while he marched up the ladder to establish himself as the world’s top featherweight, the Brazilian settled into a defensively mindful style as champion that helped put the 145-pound weight class on the technical cutting edge of the sport. Even when he’s suffered one-sided losses to the likes of Conor McGregor and Max Holloway , Aldo has always regrouped and put on performances that have reaffirmed his place as a legend of the sport. After losing to Alexander Volkanovski in 2019, Aldo announced a plan to cut down to bantamweight, which frankly seemed like a horrible idea at the time. If Aldo seemed destined to ever change weight classes, it seemed likely he’d have to move up to lightweight thanks to his muscular frame rather than move down to 135 pounds. As it turned out, Aldo knew best. Even while he might not look great cosmetically down a class, he’s as sharp as ever and still among the Top 10 bantamweights in the world—at worst. After an unsuccessful title fight against Petr Yan in 2020, Aldo got right back in the mix after three straight wins, then surprisingly retired after a 2022 loss to Merab Dvalishvili . It was a clear Dvalishvili win, but the fact that he never got past neutralizing Aldo into putting together any sort of dominant offense affirmed that the Brazilian was still competing at an elite level. After taking a few boxing matches, Aldo made his return to mixed martial arts in May, providing a much-needed shot in the arm to a card in Rio de Janeiro and looking excellent in the process. Jonathan Martinez is one of the division’s top young up-and-comers, and yet, he still looked slow against Aldo, who outstruck him for three rounds. If this were any division other than bantamweight, Aldo might still be able to fight his way back to a title shot at 38 years of age, but for the time being, he’ll be content to keep knocking off the rising prospects of the division. Bautista is next to step up.

Bautista quickly established himself as an entertaining and talented fighter upon hitting the UFC, though things were initially rough in terms of results. He got thrown into the deep end against Cory Sandhagen in his 2019 debut, then had a winning streak broken by a sudden knockout loss against Trevin Jones two years later. That last result caused Bautista to take a step back and retool, and now that he’s hit an effective balance, it’s been off to the races. Bautista’s better at picking his spots, but once he does, he’s still extremely comfortable pressuring his way through an all-out war. Bautista’s last two wins over Da’Mon Blackshear and Ricky Simon have each followed the same outline. It’s taken Bautista a round to feel out the opponents, but by the end of things, he has his wrestling and grappling going to a point that he can pour on the offense. It’ll be fascinating to see how Bautista approaches this matchup in terms of his level of aggression. Aldo has always leveraged his accuracy as a way to discourage his opponents from picking up the pace, conserving his own gas tank in the process. Of course, breaking through Aldo’s defenses enough to wear him out is easier said than done, as it requires a level of durability and bull-headedness that only fighters like Holloway have been able to achieve. Those margins might be getting thinner, between Aldo’s additional weight cut at 135 pounds, his age and the fact that this fight is taking place at elevation, so Bautista might be able to thread the needle enough to walk away with a win if he turns back the clock a bit to his more aggressive form. Given his last few performances—and while Bautista might be able to take this fight over by the final horn—the call is that Aldo will have already built up a lead on the scorecards. The pick is Aldo via decision.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Rountree
Pennington vs. Pena
Bautista vs. Aldo
Harrison vs. Vieira
Holland vs. Dolidze
The Prelims

Women’s Bantamweights

#11 P4P | Kayla Harrison (17-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. #2 WBW | Ketlen Vieira (14-3, 8-3 UFC)

ODDS: Harrison (-800), Vieira (+550)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

The UFC’s modus operandi seems fairly clear here, as Harrison—who already has a case as the UFC’s top contender at 135 pounds—seems poised to get a big win as an appetizer for the title fight further up the card. A two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, Harrison transitioned to mixed martial arts in 2016 and proved to be a quick study once she debuted two years later with the Professional Fighters League. The main issue was that she seemed to be a fighter without a weight class. A natural lightweight, Harrison was able to bully around an array of converted bantamweights and featherweights with little issue but also without much of an obvious direction that provided any sort of drama. Harrison did eventually suffer her first mixed martial arts loss, as Larissa Pacheco was able to outlast her in the third fight between the two. However, that did little to dull Harrison’s momentum, especially once she was free of her contractual obligations and signed with the UFC. Harrison’s UFC debut against Holly Holm at UFC 300 was one of the most intriguing fights on a deep card, particularly since it marked her first appearance at bantamweight—10 pounds lighter than any weight she had fought at and 20 pounds down from where she’d spent most of her career. Any potential issues went by the wayside once the proverbial bell rang. Harrison looked as good as when she outmuscled Holm, who’s still one of the strongest fighters in the division, and eventually found a submission win in the second round. The performance was enough to immediately make Harrison the most exciting contender in a stagnant division, but the UFC has decided to make her prove herself one more time before getting that title shot, as she faces another physical force in Vieira.

Vieira’s always suffered an ill-timed injury or defeat just when she’s on the verge of a title shot, but the Brazilian has been a relevant force among the top of the division for the better part of half a decade. Large and thickly built, Vieira marched up the ranks as a fairly straightforward grinder before hitting a rough stretch after her 2018 win over Cat Zingano . Injuries limited her to only one fight in two and a half years, and that lone trip to the Octagon saw her get knocked out by Irene Aldana within a round. It seemed to take Vieira a while to get over that result, as her next few performances saw her less dedicated to her usual pressure, but “Fenomeno” is now back near her peak form. She might not be the most exciting fighter to watch, but she can usually grind out a win as needed. There’s some mild intrigue here, as this marks another big weight cut for Harrison and takes place at elevation in Salt Lake City, but this looks like another fight where the former Olympian can out-bully a bully and eventually find a finish on the mat. The pick is Harrison via second-round stoppage.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Rountree
Pennington vs. Pena
Bautista vs. Aldo
Harrison vs. Vieira
Holland vs. Dolidze
The Prelims

Middleweights

Kevin Holland (26-11, 13-8 UFC) vs. Roman Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC)

ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

A former light heavyweight and former welterweight meet at 185 pounds for what could be a strange fight. Holland spent the first few years of his UFC career as an entertaining if inconsistent middleweight until a breakout 2020 campaign, as he was a perfect match for the pandemic era of the UFC. Holland’s willingness to take short-notice fights meant he was frequently in front of viewers, and his tendency to trash talk during his fights was quite welcome in the otherwise-quiet UFC Apex. As a result, Holland entered 2021 with the hopes of breaking through as a contender, but instead, things went completely sideways in what turned out to be a winless year. Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori each exposed Holland’s lack of takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet, and his final bout of the year ended in a no contest due to an accidental clash of heads. Holland then announced he’d be cutting down to welterweight, and his eight-fight run in the division wound up as a mixed bag. For one, it was impressive that Holland even made the weight, as he immediately became one of the tallest fighters in the weight class; and he was able to put that size to good use. Even so, that was a double-edged sword. A lot of Holland’s middleweight fights were marked by some surprising technical craft as a striker, which seemingly went out the window at welterweight, with “Trailblazer” content to lean on his physical advantages to take a wilder, more aggressive approach. That led to a lot of messy affairs that mostly left Holland in the same spot he was as a middleweight, so after taking a late-notice fight up at 185 pounds in June, it’s not a shock to see him stick around in the weight class for this fight against Dolidze.

Dolidze’s had a successful UFC career over the last four years and change, though it’s still a bit hard to parse exactly how the Georgian keeps finding his way into the win column. Initially a light heavyweight prospect, Dolidze was inefficient but dangerous on the regional scene and early in his UFC career. Dolidze didn’t have much of a consistent round-winning approach, but he’d throw out enough low-percentage techniques that eventually something would land thanks to his athleticism and physicality. Then Dolidze cut down to middleweight while temporarily reinventing himself as a low-output grinder whose fights were often unwatchable before rising through the ranks by rediscovering his finishing ability. Once again, Dolidze seemed to pull finishes out of nowhere, but it was clear that his combination of power and creativity was difficult for opponents to reckon with. Things have cooled off once again in Dolidze’s last handful of fights. Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov exposed a lot of the emptiness in Dolidze’s game in between techniques, and while he got the win in a late-notice light heavyweight fight against Anthony Smith in June, it still didn’t feel like a particularly inspiring or impactful performance. Both men have a path to victory here, though it’s hard to know who to trust to take it. Holland should have the higher striking output and the length to take Dolidze apart from range, but it seems likely that he’ll keep crashing into the Georgian and giving him opportunities to turn this into a low-output wrestling match. Dolidze might still be inactive enough that he could lose a decision in a fight that he mostly controls, but the call is that he’s stout enough to cause enough round-winning damage even in a grind. The pick is Dolidze via decision.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Rountree
Pennington vs. Pena
Bautista vs. Aldo
Harrison vs. Vieira
Holland vs. Dolidze
The Prelims