Pollster Breaks Down Ted Cruz’s Cancun Problem In Reelection Bid: ‘Abandoned Us When We Needed Him’

Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jessica Taylor spoke to C-SPAN’s John McArdle on Washington Journal on Thursday and explained why Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is facing a serious reelection challenge this year — his Cancun problem.

“Every race is a potential majority maker in the Senate this year. This week, you wrote about Senator Ted Cruz’s race against Democratic Congressman Colin Allred, a race that’s becoming more competitive with less than five weeks to go until Election Day,’ McArdle began.

“Yeah, I mean, and this is good news for Democrats because they haven’t, the overall map is very hard for Democrats. They have a 51/49 majority, but it functionally starts at 50/50 because they’re going to lose that West Virginia seat with Joe Manchin retiring,” Taylor replied, adding:

So that means that they cannot afford to lose any incumbent and they have to have Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency. Now, Montana is one that we moved a couple of weeks ago. Jon Tester is by far the most vulnerable incumbent, and we see him as the underdog. So we shifted that race to lean Republican. So that means that if Democrats still want a viable path to the majority, they have to find another offensive target. And increasingly, Texas is becoming that target. You have Ted Cruz, of course, he won by less than three points in 2018 against Beto O’Rourke. That was in a midterm election, though in presidential elections should be harder in Texas. But there’s a couple of unique things happening.

Listen, Ted Cruz is polarizing. And, you know, he’s he’s tried to you know, he’s he’s emphasized his work as a legislator. He sort of toned down the bombastic personality that we know. But he’s running against Colin Allred, who is a more centrist congressman, flipped his seat in 2018 from red to blue in the midterm election. Then he was drawn into a safe seat. So we really could have stayed in this suburban Dallas seat for as long as he wanted. But Democrats convincing him to run for Senate was really quite the coup. And so he’s been able to fundraise.

In fact, the latest numbers here in Texas, he’s already spent almost $50 million. And between Allred’s campaign versus Cruz and his allies have only spent about 22.3 million. So that heavy advantage on air has enabled, I think, all red to raise his name I.D., to get his message out there. And there are two things that I think Cruz is uniquely vulnerable on. Abortion is now, of course, a bigger issue than it was in 2018 after the Dobbs decision.

Texas is one of the most restrictive laws in the country. And then Cancun. I was watching a focus group a couple of weeks ago of undecided Trump voters in this Senate race, and they immediately brought up Cancun, which in 2021, after the state was hit hard with a winter storm, power outages, the power grid failed. Cruz went with his family on a vacation to Mexico. He was very much assailed for this. There was sort of this iconic image of him coming back, rolling a suitcase with a Texas mask. Allred features that in a lot of his ads. Talks about Ted Cruz abandoned us when we needed him.

And so I think it sort of further inflames why people have very strong feelings about Ted Cruz. But you see Republicans now putting more money in the race, painting Allred, as you know, tied to Harris and Biden, particularly on immigration. But we’re seeing tightening poll numbers here and increased spending.

McArdle followed up, “That’s why I want to focus on the poll numbers. Is it because Texas is the best bad option for Democrats with not a lot of targets? Or is there actually polling here showing that that Allred has a path?”

“We’ve seen it between I’ve seen polling between 2 and 3 points, I think probably with Cruz ahead. Yes, Cruz is still leading. And, you know, I think Republicans have it slightly larger. But in public polling, we have seen it in that. But I think also those last 2 to 3 points in Texas are just Herculean,” Taylor replied, concluding:

But I think it’s you’re right, it is sort of the best bad option is still very difficult. But the fact that Allred is raising his own money and can get those lower candidate rates. And when it comes to advertising, you know, I kind of think of it in the other the other bucket is, is Florida, of course. Senator Rick Scott also up for reelection there, also, you know, has had issues with his approval ratings and favorability. But Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his Democratic opponent, has just not been able to fundraise at the level that already has.

Now we have national Democrats, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said this week or said last week they’re putting money in both races. So far we’ve seen that show. We’ve seen that show up in hybrid ads and things. But I think that when you look at sort of where the money is and the fact that Ted Cruz can’t write himself a check versus Rick Scott in Florida, who’s a multimillionaire, can.

Watch the clip above via C-SPAN.