<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=1UxI6l_0vuGfoR700" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1UxI6l_0vuGfoR700" width="1200" height="900" ><figcaption>Throughout the country, wheat yields have been really good this year, for both winter wheat and spring wheat, but there are a lot of concerns about the quality of this year’s crop.</figcaption></figure>With farmers throughout the region getting started with fall harvest, Frayne Olson, North Dakota State University professor and crops economist, provided an update on the markets for wheat, corn, and soybeans, and the factors that are impacting current prices.Throughout the country, wheat yields have been really good this year, for both winter wheat and spring wheat, but there are a lot of concerns about the quality of this year’s crop.“There is a lot of variation in quality out there,” Olson said. “There are pockets where it’s getting kind of nasty, but in general, it’s not as bad as I was concerned about. Proteins are a little lower than normal, but that’s expected with higher yields.“As for falling numbers, in general, my understanding is that they’re not terrible across the aggregate of North Dakota,” he continued. “Same with vomitoxin – there are some areas with really high levels, but it’s not as bad as some of those initial reports were for those first fields that came off.”From a pricing standpoint, Olson noted there were a couple things happening globally that will impact U.S. prices. The first thing he noted was the issues the Europeans are having in terms of quality.“The yields are good, but the quality has been exceptionally variable,” he said. “France and Germany are kind of the two biggest producers and exporters of wheat in Europe, and the French wheat, while they had some decent yields, they also have some real quality issues.”Quality issues in Europe mean two things, according to Olson. First, there won’t be as much milling grade wheat in the marketplace, and secondly, the Europeans won’t be able to export as much product.“The forecast for global supplies is shrinking a bit, so looking at the U.S., we’re up and we have better yields, but the opposite is happening globally,” he said. “There’s going to be an opportunity for some good, quality milling wheat to hit the market.”The market will also have to see what happens in Australia and Argentina, who are two of more major wheat producing regions in the Southern Hemisphere that have yet to have any kind of harvest, with Argentina just finishing up their planting season.“There’s also India, and they are one of those countries that when they have a good production year, they can export wheat. If they have a poor year, they tend to import. They’re now in that import phase, but they have some political issues to figure out about whether they’re going to change their import structure or change how they handle their stocks internally. That will also have an impact on global wheat prices,” Olson explained.Corn<h2>People are also reading…</h2>In the corn market, the thing that will get the most attention in the coming weeks is what kind of yields are being reported off the combine. Those numbers have been estimated for a while, but Olson noted there’s more of an expectation now that yields might take an uptick compared to what was previously estimated.“The market is also watching export sales closely,” he said. “We’ve had okay corn export sales. They’re a little harder to predict than soybeans, but we’re on an okay pace – not far off from where we were last year.”Low water levels in the Mississippi River may also impact the market in the near future.“A lot of the corn and soybeans we export are taken down the Mississippi River and through the ports in New Orleans. The New Orleans ports export a much higher amount of corn and soybeans compared to the Pacific Northwest. The river levels are important because a lot of those grain loads travel by barge, and as river levels drop, barge travel slows, so they can’t load them as heavily and it shortens the number of barges per tugboat because of trying to go around some of the sandbars and obstacles that show up in the river,” Olson explained.“What we’re starting to see is the barge freight rates going up. That’s not necessarily going to have a big impact on futures prices, but it could impact basis levels,” he added.For farmers up in the Northern Plains and Midwest, not a lot of their corn is shipped by barge down the Mississippi River, so how does this impact them?“If these low water levels continue for a while, we could see some of those shipments being diverted through the Pacific Northwest because of the backlog,” Olson said. “A lot of international buyers have booked and purchased their grain for delivery at or shortly after harvest, so if we can’t get it loaded in the Gulf, some of those may be diverted like we’ve seen in the past. If that happens for both corn and soybeans, we might see some basis improvement in this region. It’s not a futures market issue, but it may be a basis issue.”SoybeansA lot of the issues impacting the corn market are also impacting the soybean market – harvest, yields, and Mississippi River water levels. But an additional thing worth watching with soybeans, according to Olson, is purchase pace – how much and how quickly the Chinese are buying from the U.S.“Last marketing year, our export sales to China we’re down,” he said. “The concern now, with the huge crop Brazil had last year, is that they’ll be able to supply China for a longer period, making them slower to come into the U.S. market. The Chinese want to buy some U.S. soybeans because it makes economic sense for them. The question is: when will they come in and buy large quantities, and when will they come in during this harvest push? That’s typically when they come in aggressively and buy out of our system.”As always, weather in Brazil is also something the watch. They’ve just started planting, and they have a long planting window, but conditions are dry right now.“It’s dry over a pretty large portion of their soybean production region,” Olson said. “That can change overnight, but they need to get some rain showers pretty soon to encourage farmers to start planting their soybeans. If they wait, because they have this longer window, it means our export season could last a little longer.“The moral of the story is that there are a lot of dynamics with the South American crop and people are watching to see what happens. Industry estimates believe the South American crop could come in at a 10-12 percent increase from last year, so they could have another record production, but if they don’t get the weather, it could change the dynamics,” he concluded.</div></body>

Mountain View, CA

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Many market dynamics in play as fall harvest gets rolling

With farmers throughout the region getting started with fall harvest, Frayne Olson, North Dakota State University professor and crops economist, provided an update on the markets for wheat, corn, and soybeans, and the factors that are impacting current prices. Throughout the country, wheat yields have been really good this year,...

Many market dynamics in play as fall harvest gets rolling

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