Tropical depression forms, expected to strengthen into a hurricane and target Florida

A dangerous, damaging and disruptive situation is likely to unfold in Florida next week as a tropical depression is forecast to evolve into a hurricane and deliver flooding downpours.

Even as Hurricane Helene was pressing toward the Florida coast, AccuWeather's team of expert meteorologists had been monitoring part of the Gulf of Mexico for yet another round of tropical trouble. On Saturday morning, Tropical Depression 14 formed, and it was expected to intensify and strike the Florida Peninsula next week as a hurricane, with torrential rain, wind and the likelihood of flooding.

Thunderstorms have been persistently erupting in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the past few days. AccuWeather began to refer to the system as a tropical rainstorm late in the week to raise public awareness of the risk to lives and property and to assist in planning and preparation.

As the depression continues to churn over the warm Gulf waters this weekend, it is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm then a Category 1 or 2 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) before making landfall just south of Tampa Bay, Florida, on Wednesday morning.

The next name on the Atlantic list is 'Milton.'

At this time, the greatest threat to lives and property appears to be due to torrential rainfall that can lead to dangerous, damaging and disruptive urban flooding in central and South Florida, beginning as early as Sunday and lasting through the middle of next week.

Besides torrential rainfall and flooding concerns, this storm can bring rough surf, dangerous seas and strong winds that cause power outages and even tornadoes.

A general 4-8 inches of rain is forecast to fall on portions of central and South Florida, with heavier rain and higher totals of 8-12 inches expected for places like Tampa and Orlando. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for this storm is 30 inches.

Rainfall rates of several inches per hour can occur in the major metro areas, easily overwhelming the storm drainage system in cities such as Cape Coral, Naples, Port Charlotte, Fort Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Melbourne.

Even though much of Florida's soil is very sandy and can absorb heavy rain quickly, there will still be enough runoff that works into creeks, lakes and rivers to trigger flooding. Water levels may rise quickly on the smaller streams and lakes but may take a week or two to cycle through rivers such as the Peace, Imperial, Hillsborough, Myakka and St. Johns.

Strong winds in excess of 100 mph at landfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 155 mph, can lead to long-lasting power outages and structural damage. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts can be experienced as far away as Jacksonville and the Florida Keys.

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"The feature will take an east-northeast track across the southern Gulf of Mexico where waters are sufficiently warm, in the 80s F, and wind shear, disruptive breezes, are low," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

The stronger the system becomes before landfall, the greater the impacts from strong winds and storm surge. The dangers from flooding are likely, and there may still be locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and waterspouts.

Kirk becomes a monster hurricane; Leslie strengthening

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are two potent tropical cyclones in the middle of the ocean.

Kirk has strengthened rapidly this week and became the third major hurricane of the season. It has joined Helene and Beryl, which have reached at least Category 4 intensity. Leslie strengthened into hurricane status late Friday and is expected to remain at Category 1 intensity through much of the upcoming week.

Both Kirk and Leslie may be spinning across the central Atlantic for many days and well into next week. Next week, Kirk will turn northeastward and is likely to bring significant impacts to parts of Ireland, the United Kingdom and the western European mainland as a formidable tropical wind and rainstorm.

Leslie is hundreds of miles southeast of Kirk and is forecast to track farther to the west but will still remain to the northeast of the Leeward Islands next week.

Both Kirk and Leslie will raise concerns for transatlantic vessels. Kirk has already generated monstrous seas. Wave heights near Kirk on Friday were estimated to be 35-45 feet.

As swells move outward from both storms, they will show up in the form of rough surf and frequent and strong rip currents along the northeast-facing beaches of the Caribbean, the United States Atlantic Coast, Atlantic Canada and the shores of western Europe from this weekend to next week.

There have been a total of eight hurricanes, not yet counting the tropical rainstorm in the Gulf of Mexico, so far in 2024 with 13 tropical depressions that went on to become named systems. There have been four named systems that made landfall in the U.S., along with an unnamed tropical rainstorm that blasted North Carolina in mid-September with torrential downpours and storm surge flooding.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger contributed to this story.

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