It is time to spice up UFC 307 with a few bets. It is a challenging card to bet on, but there are a few creative ways to find valuable plays. (Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images)
UFC 307 Best Bets
UFC 307 is a difficult card to bet on. The event does not have many obvious money line plays that have value. Instead, a good portion of the best bets available on this card come from spreads. In total, there is one moneyline and two spread bets for this week’s best bets post. Here are the three best bets you can make on UFC 307.
*All odds are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 9:00 p.m. on Oct. 4.*
Jose Aldo +120
The first bet for UFC 307 is for Jose Aldo to beat Mario Bautista. The betting odds are close as Aldo sits as a +120 underdog while Bautista is a -142 favorite. I am siding with the underdog in this fight.
I think this is going to be a very close fight. This is the type of fight that you want to side with the underdog. Plus, it helps that the underdog is one of the greatest fighters of all time.
Aldo has tools that can give Bautista issues. This is mainly his ironclad takedown defense. In the early rounds, it will be a struggle for Bautista to get the fight to the ground. In the striking exchanges, Aldo’s boxing should help him win rounds.
Bautista’s volume and cardio will present Aldo’s problems. A high-paced boxing affair should eventually lead to Bautista winning the final round. That said, I trust that Aldo can use his boxing to edge out the first two rounds.
In a close fight, I want to bet on the underdog. At the same time, I am leaning toward Aldo being the fighter to get his hand raised. Those factors make Aldo one of my favorite bets for UFC 307.
Iasmin Lucindo -3.5 +120
The second best bet for UFC 307 is our first spread bet. I will take Iasmin Lucindo to cover -3.5 points against Marina Rodriguez. That bet is lined at +120. In my opinion, this is a much better bet than the moneyline which has Lucindo as a -180 while Rodriguez is a +150 underdog.
I have been impressed with Lucindo since her UFC debut . At 22 years old, her well-rounded skill set and finish potential make her a strong prospect. This appears like a fight where she can utilize those skills.
The biggest flaw in Rodriguez’s game is her grappling. Despite having great striking and clinch work, she can massively struggle when takedown. Lucindo has a strong ground game . She is fully capable of landing takedowns and finding submissions. That creates a route for her to win all three rounds with control time or stop the fight with a submission. In either scenario, she covers the spread.
The clear grappling difference between these two fighters gives Lucindo at clear path to covering the spread. That makes her -3.5 point spread one of the best bets for UFC 307.
The final bet for UFC 307 is for Tecia Pennington to cover the -3.5 point spread against Carla Esparza. On the moneyline, Pennington is a -185 favorite while Esparza is a +154 underdog.
This is my favorite bet of the three plays provided. I will gladly fade Esparza in this fight. The former champion has announced this will be her final fight. I will gladly bet against retiring fights. On top of that it is a bad stylistic matchup.
Esparza has not beaten a competent grappler in a significant period of time. That is not counting her with over Rose Namajunas because they didn’t actually fight. Before that fight, she last beat a grappler in 2019 when she beat Virna Jandiroba. That’s not a bad win, but it was five years ago.
Pennington has lost consecutive bouts to Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern. If you want to give Pennington the benefit of the doubt, those were both split decisions. Regardless, Pennington showed solid takedown defense. That is what’s important. It should also be noted that Pennington should have a physicality advantage against Esparza which only provides more optimism that she can defend takedowns.
If Esparza cannot out-grapple Pennington, I simply have a hard time seeing her win the striking exchanges. I expect Pennington to land strikes and defend takedowns. That should be enough to win all three rounds.
This is one of my favorite bets for UFC 307. It has a valuable combination of factors working in unison to push this fight in Pennington’s favor. I’ll gladly bet that she can cover 3.5 points at +160.
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