Does College Football Have an Elite Team in 2024?

By Brett Daniels

Week 6 of the College Football season has concluded after several notable upsets which include four of the Top 10 teams. The carnage has only intensified the debate of whether there are any elite teams in college football this season, or just a big group of very good teams.

Past Champions

The last 5 seasons have produced a champion that was elite on at least one side of the ball and one that was elite on both sides (2021&2022 Georgia)

· 2019 LSU -Offense (1 ^st Total Offense, 2 ^nd Yards Per Play-7.89, 1 ^st Scoring Offense-48.4 ppg) Defense (31 ^st Total Defense, 29 ^th Yards Per Play-5.11, 31 ^st Scoring Defense-21.9 ppg)

· 2020 Alabama -Offense (4 ^th Total Offense, 2 ^nd Yards Per Play-7.81, 2 ^nd Scoring Offense-48.5 ppg) Defense (32 ^nd Total Defense, 20 ^th Yards Per Play-5.04, 13 ^th Scoring Defense-19.4 ppg)

· 2021 Georgia -Offense (25 ^th Total Offense, 4 ^th Yards Per Play-6.98, 9 ^th Scoring Offense-38.6 ppg) Defense (2 ^nd Total Defense, 2 ^nd Yards Per Play-4.15, 1 ^st Scoring Defense-10.2 ppg)

· 2022 Georgia -Offense (5 ^th Total Offense, 4 ^th Yards Per Play-7.17, 4 ^th Scoring Offense-41.1 ppg) Defense (10 ^th Total Defense, 15 ^th Yards Per Play-4.88, 5 ^th Scoring Defense-14.3 ppg)

· 2023 Michigan -Offense (69 ^th Total Offense, 35 ^th Yards Per Play-6.21, 14 ^th Scoring Offense-35.8 ppg) Defense (1 ^st Total Defense, 4 ^th Yards Per Play-4.28, 1 ^st Scoring Defense-10.4 ppg)

What Does the Data Tell Us?

Using the metrics from the last five champions you need to have an offense that produces at approximately a 7.0 yards per play rate and/or a defense that produces at approximately a 5.0 yards per play rate. Currently, there are 7 teams in the current AP Top 10 that meet these criteria:

1. Texas Longhorns -Offense (7.30 ypp), Defense (3.75 ypp) Net (+3.55)

2. Ohio State Buckeyes -Offense (7.66 ypp), Defense (3.61 ypp) Net (+4.05)

3. Penn State Nittany Lions -Offense (7.28 ypp), Defense (4.01 ypp) Net (+3.27)

4. Miami Hurricanes -Offense (8.15 ypp), Defense (4.86 ypp), Net (+3.29)

5. Alabama Crimson Tide -Offense (7.83 ypp), Defense (4.52 ypp), Net (+3.31)

6. Tennessee Volunteers -Offense (6.94 ypp), Defense (3.81 ypp), Net (+3.13)

7. Ole Miss Rebels -Offense (7.87 ypp), Defense (3.79 ypp), Net (+4.08)

#3 Oregon (Offense-6.51 ypp, Defense-4.59 ypp, Net +1.92), #5 Georgia (Offense-6.65 ypp, Defense-5.03 ypp, Net +1.62), and #10 Clemson (Offense-7.12 ypp, Defense-5.56 ypp, Net +1.56) are all just under the +2.0-elite mark.

Comparing the current marks with the historical averages of championship teams would indicate that there are seven elite teams and three more just on the cusp but that isn’t the entire picture.

Texas has not faced an offense ranked higher than 65 ^th (UTSA) or a defense ranked higher than 57 ^th (Louisiana-Monroe). Ohio State’s best opponents have been Marshall on Offense (81 ^st ) and Michigan State on Defense (43 ^rd ). Penn State has been tested a little more than the two teams ranked ahead of them, facing a West Virginia team that ranks 38 ^th on Offense and an Illinois team that is 26 ^th best on Defense.

Miami hasn’t faced an offense (Florida) or defense (California) rated higher than 60 ^th . Alabama’s best opponent so far has been #5 Georgia who ranks 54 ^th on Offense and 23 ^rd on Defense while Tennessee has only faced one team that isn’t ranked in the 100’s on offense in Arkansas (13 ^th ). The Hogs are also the best defense the Vols have faced, ranking 39 ^th in Total Defense.

Ole Miss may be the biggest fraud on the list facing Furman (FCS), MTSU (102 ^nd Offense, 128 ^th Defense), Wake Forest (46 ^th Offense, 125 ^th Defense), Georgia Southern (94 ^th Offense, 130 ^th Defense), Kentucky (115 ^th Offense, 5 ^th Defense), and South Carolina (93 ^rd Offense, 15 ^th Defense).

Georgia has faced the toughest schedule out of anyone in the Top 10 facing Clemson (19 ^th Offense, 80 ^th Defense), Alabama (16 ^th Offense, 48 ^th Defense), and Auburn (34 ^th Offense, 54 ^th Defense). The Dawgs have also faced a Kentucky team ranked 5 ^th in total defense. Oregon has encountered a slightly tougher schedule than the seven teams who currently are over +2.0 yards per play differential facing a 3rd-ranked Boise State offense and the 43rd-ranked Michigan State defense.

Is There an Elite Team in College Football?

Based on the current information, there doesn’t appear to be an elite team this year in the same vein as the last 5 National Champions. Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia have the best opportunity to move into the elite category based off the upcoming schedules.

Texas will be tested in the next two weeks, with the yearly rivalry game against Oklahoma in Dallas and a visit from Georgia, while Ohio State ventures to Eugene to take on Oregon before hosting Nebraska (77 ^th Offense, 14 ^th Defense) in Columbus.

Alabama and Georgia enter the meat of their SEC schedules with the Tide hosting South Carolina (93 ^rd offense, 15 ^th defense) in Tuscaloosa before traveling to Rocky Top to face the Vols while Georgia hosts SEC bottom dweller Mississippi State before traveling to Austin to take on the Longhorns.