2024-25 NBA Season: 5 win total bets to consider wagering

2024-25 NBA Season: 5 win total bets to consider wagering

The NBA season tips off in just over two weeks! The gambling-verse never sleeps, so what are some over-under win totals that you should consider betting heading into the new season? As Vendetta’s worst gambler, let’s examine five (plus a few honorable mentions).

(Editor’s Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel as of 5:00 p.m. EST)

Nuggets o50.5 wins (-105)

Let’s begin with the Nuggets, whose win total has dropped two wins since it opened at 52.5 at sportsbooks in mid-July. The Nuggets may have lost Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in consecutive offseasons, but they still have the best player on the planet in Nikola Jokic , who’s played in 93 percent of his team’s regular season games in his career, and Jamal Murray .

The latter hasn’t been as durable, but in games where both players have played over the last two seasons, the Nuggets have been 84-33 (.718), equating to a 59-win pace squad. They obviously won’t be suiting up for all 82 games, but that’s a healthy enough gap to where I’d buy back on this line at near-even money.

If you like trends, Denver’s surpassed their projected win total in each of the last eight seasons. A team that’s won at least 62 percent of their games (51-win pace) has netted a top-4 seed in the West in four of the last six years. So unless you think they’re not a top-4 team, then I’d lean toward playing this.

Warriors o43.5 wins (-110)

Golden State capped off last season winning 46 games across a loaded Western Conference, and while the trek hasn’t gotten much easier, I think they’ve sneakily gotten better. It lost sharpshooter Klay Thompson to the Dallas Mavericks, one of the best shooters ever. But they signed De’Anthony Melton , elite sharpshooter Buddy Hield and Kyle Anderson , who will be playing more small ball with them.

Sure, Stephen Curry ‘s played a lot of basketball over the last 12 months and isn’t getting any younger. Though Golden State was also buoyed by the play of their young players, who will have greater roles in 2024-25. I’m also expecting bounce-back seasons from both Gary Payton II and Andrew Wiggins this year, too, raising the team’s floor over the 82-game slate.

Magic o47.5 wins (-112)

I’ll credit Trey with putting me on this one in July–because he did. Orlando took another sizable leap last season, finishing 47-35 with a top-3 defense and mid-tier NET Rating.

To help out with the team’s desperate need for 3-point shooting, it signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a three-year, $66 million deal in free agency. Caldwell-Pope, a pesky defender who can defend 2-3 positions well, also raises the floor even more defensively. The Magic also drafted Colorado forward Tristan da Silva No. 18 overall in the 2024 NBA Draft, one player who I was very high on in the pre-draft process, and are a well-coached team.

Orlando also boasts two of the best young wins in the entire NBA in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner , who’s bound to bounce back after a rough shooting end to his season. Not all growth is linear, but I expect both players to take another leap in 2024-25.

They’ve elevated their win total by at least 12 wins in each of the last two seasons and outplayed their projected win total by 8.5 wins over that span. If you think they can improve by just one win in an Eastern Conference where the bottom really bottoms out, then this is worth taking.

76ers u52.5 wins (-148)

The last point I made for Orlando above is why I understand that betting under for a team atop the East could make one nervous. My counterpoint is that not every win total is going to go over, so I can’t earnestly do this without involving an under. Here’s where I’m throwing one of my darts.

I also understand one’s hesitancy for laying this much juice, but this is a health bet more than anything. Joel Embiid hasn’t always been the healthiest duck in the pond, and is coming off a torn meniscus injury that limited him to just 39 games last season. He got better as time went on in the Olympics, but I don’t trust him to be fully healthy for an 82-game season.

Philadelphia also signed forward Paul George , who’s missed at least 25 percent of his team’s games in four of the last five seasons. He’s also entering his age-34 season and isn’t getting any younger.

Tyrese Maxey is an ascending star, but they have plenty of question that needs to be answered outside of their core three. Can Caleb Martin rebound after missing time with knee tendinosis last year, where he will play out of position that will require more wear and tear? Can Kelly Oubre replicate his encouraging season? How much juice will veterans Reggie Jackson , Kyle Lowry and Eric Gordon provide at this stage of their respective careers? Can Andre Drummond be a good-enough backup big when Embiid’s not on the floor?

I have too many questions for a roster that had a lot of roster turnover. Nick Nurse is a good coach, but I am not sure if Philadelphia has enough depth to win 53 games, should Embiid or George miss a reasonable amount of time.

Celtics o57.5 wins (-110)

Let’s stay atop the East with the reigning champion Boston Celtics. Normally, I would be reluctant to ride the over on a team coming off an NBA Title. Boston, however, is a different case study.

Sure, it will be without big man Kristaps Porzingis , one of their most important and impactful players, until at least December with a leg injury. The Celtics still went 31-6 in games minus Porzingis with a plus-10.2 NET Rating last year, and finished 64-18 with the fifth-highest margin-of-victory and simple rating system in NBA History, according to Stathead . Believe it or not, according to ESPN’s expected win-loss metric, they played five wins below expectation–putting into perspective how dominant they were.

Do I think Boston will completely replicate that? Not necessarily. But they brought back their top-11 scorers and added Lonnie Walker in free agency (Exhibit 10) while drafting savvy wing Baylor Scheierman at the back-end of the first round. They’re still the best team in the NBA and I still expect them to get to at least 58 wins, barring an unforeseen injury.

Others to consider:

Heat o44.5 (-102) – Yeah yeah, call me a homer all you want. Miami won 46 games last year despite having a boatload of injuries and 35 different starting lineups. They’re not always the easiest to project, but they’re also not a team to mail it in during the regular season. They have the best coach in the NBA in Erik Spoelstra plus a motivated Jimmy Butler in a contract year, even though he’s also coming off the most serious injury in his career.

Thunder o56.5 (-105) – 57 wins is a lot for a team that had arguably the best injury luck in the NBA a year ago. But they also added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstei, which is great insurance behind an already deep and hungry roster. Oh, and they have a top-5 coach in Mark Daigneault. I think they could be a sneaky 60-win candidate, which comes in at +172.

Clippers u38.5 (-115) – This number opened at 41.5 and keeps lowering. It’s another low total with a very good head coach in Tyronn Lue , but I don’t think this currently constructed team gets to 39 wins a loaded West if Kawhi Leonard can’t stay healthy .

Jazz u28.5 (-138) – Don’t fool yourselves. While Lauri Markkanen isn’t going anywhere, neither is this team. I expect Utah, who has a top-10 protected pick, to be in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes next June.

Hornets u29.5 (-110) – LaMelo Ball missed all but 22 games last year, and they have a very promising young player in Brandon Miller . But are we sure these Hornets improve by nine wins? I need to see it to believe it.

Unders on other bottomfeeders – I don’t care who it is between Brooklyn, Washington or Portland. Players may not openly tank, but these teams are going to be really bad (relative to the rest of the league) with Flagg on the way. There’s a chance that at least two of these three teams go under their win total–if not all three.

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