Election 2024: Supreme Court race too tight to predict

(The Center Square) – Democrat Allison Riggs and Republican Jefferson Griffin are in a dead heat for the only North Carolina Supreme Court seat up for election this year.

Recent polling has had both candidates leading, but within the margin of error.

Riggs is the incumbent serving on her second state court bench without ever winning a judicial election on any level. Griffin, a former county prosecutor, won a statewide election to the appellate court in 2020, and in 2016 won a Wake County District Court seat.

If Griffin wins, that would be another big win for an already Republican-majority bench. The court has five Republicans and two Democrats, showing statewide voters' preference greatly changing from before 2020 when six Democrats had seats.

In the 2020 election, Democrats lost all three state Supreme Court races – Justice Paul Newby winning one to elevate to chief justice, and Tamara Barringer and Phil Berger Jr. joining the court. Democrats' advantage was still 4-3. In 2022, Richard Seitz and Trey Allen gave Republicans five straight statewide election wins and a 5-2 majority.

Terms are eight years. A win by Griffin would be very formative to the future, though the GOP has shown that even a 6-1 deficit can get changed – though it is likely to need about half a decade.

Riggs and Griffin have taken very different policy approaches. Griffin calls himself a conservative; Riggs has made progressive policies like abortion access and LGBTQ+ rights fundamental aspects of her campaign.

As a Supreme Court judge, Griffin has said he will be “an originalist and a textualist” and said he plans to “uphold the rule of law, protect individual liberties, and maintain a constitutional and common sense approach to decisions that impact North Carolina.”

Riggs has called for a “new day and a new South” for North Carolina, while saying Griffin holds “extreme” positions.

Recently, she joined the Durham City Council at an LGBTQ+ pride parade.

“Justices on our Supreme Court must be committed to fairness, integrity, and the rule of law,” she said on social media .

North Carolina judicial races are partisan, a change that happened recently.

Both candidates have brought in over $1 million through fundraising efforts, with Griffin having significantly more cash on hand going into the final stint of the election.

While Riggs is the incumbent, North Carolina voters did not place her into office – or her last post prior. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper did twice, to her post now in September 2023, and in December 2022 to her place on the state appellate court. Prior to that, she worked for the Southern Coalition for Social Justice.

“As the youngest woman to ever serve on our state Supreme Court, I bring an important and new perspective to the bench,” Riggs said on her campaign website. “As your voice on the court, I will work to ensure that the Supreme Court delivers justice to all North Carolinians without fear or favor.”

Both candidates have said that they are concerned about the judicial philosophies of their opponents.

“My opponent spent her career at the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, leading some of the most polarizing and political litigation in our state. I believe the role of a jurist is to interpret the law, not make the law,” Griffin told The Center Square.

Riggs said at a Democratic "Taking Back the Courts" event that her goal is to keep her opponent and “extremism” out of the courtroom.

“He is someone who embraces a judicial philosophy called originalism,” she added. “These folks who embrace originalism do so in a really rigid, extreme way. They use this judicial philosophy to chip away at my rights and your rights.”

Griffin went unchallenged in the spring primary, while Riggs won her primary with 69% of the vote.