Destructive Winds, Storm Surge & Isolated Tornadoes Expected; Portions of Florida; October 9th, 2024

Photo byNational Weather Force

Brief Outlook:

Hurricane Milton, a Category 4 storm, is set to make a significant impact on the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The storm threatens major cities like Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville with devastating winds, unprecedented storm surge, and intense rainfall that may lead to significant flooding. Additionally, there is an elevated risk of tornadoes, particularly in the northeastern quadrant of the hurricane, affecting counties such as Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, and Duval. This is a particularly dangerous storm and situation for the people impacted with widespread damage anticipated unfortunately. For further details on the forecast please read the details below.

Upper-Level Forecast:

Hurricane Milton is characterized by a strong upper-level outflow, essential for its intensity and structure. An upper-level anticyclone positioned directly above the storm facilitates effective outflow, allowing Milton to maintain or even increase its strength as it approaches land. This setup is enhanced by the interaction with an upper-level jet streak, which could help sustain the hurricane’s power during its approach and landfall.

Surface Forecast:

Hurricane Milton is forecasted to bring catastrophic conditions upon landfall. The combination of very warm sea surface temperatures in the mid-80s Fahrenheit and high atmospheric instability is ideal for the hurricane’s intensification. Winds at landfall could exceed 130 mph with higher gusts. The storm surge is projected to rise 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels (locally exceeding those), particularly impacting Tampa Bay and other vulnerable coastal regions. The slow movement of Milton will cause prolonged periods of heavy rainfall, resulting in extensive flooding.

Tornado Risk Potentials:

The risk for tornadoes is significantly heightened due to the dynamics within Hurricane Milton. The risk for them will gradually increase with each band of storms as soon as later tonight increasing with time. Isolated tornadoes are most likely to form in the right-front quadrant of the hurricane as it makes landfall. This risk is driven by the high low-level shear and helicity in the outer bands of the hurricane, which interact with land to create spin-up tornadoes. These tornadoes can be particularly quick-forming and intense, posing an additional hazard to areas already dealing with the primary impacts of the hurricane.

Timing for Impact:

Initial impacts will begin early Wednesday morning as outer bands affect Southern Florida. A few cells could start popping up in southwestern portions of FL ahead of the system as soon as late tonight. Milton is expected to make landfall near Tampa/Saint Petersburg by approximately 3:00 PM ET. As the hurricane moves slowly northeast, central and northern regions including Orlando and Jacksonville will face severe conditions into the evening. The most intense weather, including the highest winds, heaviest rains, and potential tornado formation, is expected from late afternoon through the night. Adverse conditions may persist into Thursday as Milton advances further.

Main impact: isolated tornadoes, damaging destructive winds, very heavy rainfall leading to flooding and life-threatening storm surge.