Analytics deep dive reveals potential exploit for Oklahoma Sooners offense against Texas Longhorns

The 2024 edition of the Red River Rivalry is arguably the most difficult game on the Oklahoma Sooners' schedule this season (as it typically is).

However, optimism is pretty short among Oklahoma fans this year, thanks to a subpar offense. There were some bright spots in the past two weeks with Michael Hawkins Jr. taking over at quarterback, but the warts that plagued the team early are hard to escape.

Related: Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. to make history against Texas in first Red River Rivalry

The Texas Longhorns enter this game reigning high after a cakewalk of a schedule, facing the likes of UL-Monroe and Mississippi State before this game. They've been untested across the board.

Despite this, a deep dive into some advanced metrics reveals a pretty interesting tell that the Oklahoma Sooners might be able to exploit in this game.

Looking at Gameonpaper's matrics, one of Texas's biggest weaknesses is in the run game, especially up front.

The Longhorns rank 48th in defensive rushing success rate, one of their lowest ranks in any defensive stat. Part of this lack of success is a poor showing in stuffing the run.

Take a look at their run stuff % rates in each of Texas's five games.

Texas Longhorns' Def Run Stuff %

via Gameonpaper

Their linebackers do a lot in the run game to reinforce their front, but they are giving up ground in the run game on the defensive line.

Now, this will require Oklahoma to be able to run the ball well enough to exploit this weakness. There are a few positives that should give Sooners' fans more confidence in their ability to do so moving forward.

Number one, their starting offensive line is finally fully healthy and playing together. As I've written about previously, the starters have played well when on the field together and are coming off their best performance of the season against a tough Auburn defense.

Secondly, they are getting Taylor Tatum back from a concussion. Tatum missed the game against Auburn, forcing Jovontae Barnes to shoulder the load at running back. Despite that, the Sooners posted their highest EPA/rush of any game outside of Temple.

Part of this is a shift in Seth Littrell's run game. For the first time all season, the Sooners shifted to a gap-heavy team against Auburn, and it worked. They also boasted their best Yards per rush of any non-Temple game this season as well.

Related: Oklahoma Sooners' OC Seth Littrell may have earned himself some job security against Auburn Tigers

The other part of this is the presence of Michael Hawkins Jr. at quarterback. His legs make him a legitimate threat to score at any point, and he has the playmaking ability to make defenses pay with his arm as well. Hawkins generated the two most explosive plays of Oklahoma's season last week against Auburn, and even more explosives were negated due to penalties.

The snowball effect of Hawkins' ability to threaten teams through the air, as well as with his legs, forces defenses to be aware of him at all times, opening things up for their rushing attack.

Now that the offensive line and running back room are fully healthy for the first time this season, the Sooners are hoping that snowball effect can help spark an offensive resurgence that will help propel them to a win against Texas and in future SEC games.

If Oklahoma can establish the run, it would go a long way to taking the burden off of Hawkins and their defense in a must-have rivalry win.