Major Hurricane Milton lands and unleashes life-threatening impacts in Florida

Milton has been upgraded to a 5 on AccuWeather’s RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes as the “once-in-a-lifetime” storm poses a significant threat to Florida, including record-breaking storm surge.

Key takeaways:

•Milton is poised to make landfall near Longboat Key and Sarasota along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday evening as a major hurricane.

•A life-threatening and highly destructive storm surge will occur near and just south of where the eye moves ashore. The storm surge could suddenly slosh and shift position in Tampa Bay.

•Flooding rainfall and damaging wind gusts will occur in many areas of the Florida Peninsula with hurricane conditions throughout the I-4 corridor.

Hurricane Milton will remain a powerful, potentially deadly and destructive force as it roars ashore in the Florida Peninsula along the central Gulf coast on Wednesday evening, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to warn.

Milton intensified rapidly and nearly tripled in strength in less than 36 hours from Sunday to Monday, eventually becoming a Category 5 with winds of 180 mph while spinning off Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Category 5 is the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

"Some changes within the eye caused the storm's peak wind intensity to ease on Monday night, but as anticipated, some regaining of strength occurred on Tuesday afternoon," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Milton regained Category 5 intensity with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph.

"On Wednesday, Milton encountered some wind shear and another eyewall replacement cycle, which resulted in a more permanent decline in peak wind intensity. However, as this occurred, the hurricane grew in size," DaSilva said, "Milton is making landfall as a formidable Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale Wednesday evening."

Hurricane experts continue to maintain that Milton will strike with the impacts of a 5 on AccuWeather's RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, which takes into account storm surge, flooding rainfall, population affected and economic impacts above and beyond the Saffir-Simpson scale, which takes into account only maximum sustained winds.

The RealImpact™ of 5 is highly scrutinized by AccuWeather meteorologists and has only been designated for storms such as Ian, Dorian, Harvey, Sandy, Katrina and Andrew, so this truly would be a once-in-a-lifetime event for the millions of people in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota area.

Deadly, dangerous and historic storm surge anticipated

By far, the most dangerous aspect of Milton as it approaches the Gulf coast of the Florida Peninsula will be storm surge. Because of the near-perpendicular angle at which Milton will roar ashore, the storm surge near and south of where the eye makes landfall will be maximized along the barrier islands and funneled into the many inland bays in the region.

“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the west-central Florida coast,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, "For many, Milton may be a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane in terms of severity."

A record storm surge can occur near and just to the south of where the eye moves ashore. The storm surge will drop off significantly north of where the eye rolls in but can be delayed and swiftly increase after the storm moves inland.

Significant, dangerous and damaging water rise of 15-20 feet will occur from near Sarasota to Venice, Florida, which is well to the south of where the eye rolls in. A storm surge of 10-15 feet from south of Venice to Cape Coral and Fort Myers, Florida, and 6-10 feet possible in Naples and Marco Island, Florida. However, even at these levels, great risk to lives and devastation can occur. North of the eyewall, the storm surge will drop off significantly, but powerful winds will lead to major damage.

• Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+

Powerful hurricanes such as Milton tend to wobble as they move along. Any southward shift in the eye could take some of the edge off the level of storm surge north of the center as winds try to push water away. Correspondingly, any northward shift in the track could bring the strongest onshore winds and highest surge into some communities where less extreme levels were originally forecast. In short, every shift in track by a few miles can make a huge difference in the magnitude of the storm surge due to the intense counterclockwise circulation around the eye.

The exact landfall is complicated by Milton's large and growing eye and eyewall.

"Near and just south of where the eye rolls in from 7 to 9 p.m. EDT Wednesday, some barrier islands and coastal mainland communities may experience extensive damage and may be altered permanently," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "That's how bad Milton can be."

AccuWeather meteorologists and government officials warn that because of the expected level of inundation, those in an evacuation zone who do not leave will be putting their lives at serious risk. The storm surge anticipated in some communities will reach the level of one—and two-story buildings and can reach that level with tremendous force in a matter of a few minutes.

Blowout tides that were occurring on Tampa Bay ahead of the eye early Wednesday evening are expected to quickly reverse, leading to a dangerous and rapid rise in water levels later Wednesday night.

"An important point related to Milton’s unusual and historic track into the Tampa Bay region is that various parts of Tampa Bay can receive damaging storm surge as the prevailing wind direction shifts as the Milton approaches the coast, makes landfall and then moves east of Tampa Bay. Even as the storm moves away from Tampa, strong northwesterly winds behind Milton can produce damaging storm surge on the southeastern part of the Bay. Milton will result in unusually high water levels in Tampa Bay and given the historic track of the storm, flooding may occur in areas that some people do not expect with the inundation resulting in flooding in places that have not been before by people who have lived in the Tampa area, even if they have lived there for their entire lives. This also increases the danger and damage potential associated with Milton," Porter warned.

Large floating objects along the coast will act as battering rams in storm surge areas.

Shifting winds from the southwest to the west and then the northwest may keep water levels elevated even many hours after Milton moves inland.

Destructive, power-robbing winds coming right through I-4 corridor

Wind gusts reaching the strength of a Category 4 hurricane (130-156 mph) will cause extensive damage and destruction to older homes and buildings that have never been tested before. Loose objects and piles of debris will become projectiles.

As Milton approaches the Florida coast Wednesday and makes landfall late Wednesday night, it will grow in size, and its tropical-storm- and hurricane-force winds will spread out.

"We expect hurricane conditions throughout the Interstate 4 corridor which will be close to the track of Milton as it moves inland," Porter warned. Major metro areas that can expect the impacts of a hurricane include Orlando, Winter Haven and Daytona Beach.

Widespread tree and power line damage will occur, with millions likely to be without power. Some of the power outages may last many days to weeks in the hardest-hit areas, especially since some of the distant utility crews that would typically assist for Milton are still working on restoring power in the wake of Helene over northern Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

Rain to swamp streets, trigger rises on rivers and lakes

Another damaging and disruptive aspect of Milton will be tremendous rainfall. While the forward speed of the hurricane will limit the duration of the heaviest downpours, rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour can occur, which are more than enough to overwhelm storm drains and flood low-lying areas despite Florida's sandy soil.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect a broad area where 8-12 inches of rain will pour down over the central and northern parts of the Florida Peninsula, but within this zone, a narrow corridor of 12-18 inches of rain may occur with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 30 inches.

This magnitude of rain will raise creeks, lakes, and rivers in the region. Many of the large rivers are considered to be slow-flowing and near sea level, so it could take many days and even weeks for waters to recede completely.

A storm surge near the coast and heavy rainfall occurring at almost the same time may cause a double-whammy of freshwater and storm surge flooding in some communities.

Most of the rain has already fallen on South Florida due to a preliminary feature early this week. However, the risk of tornadoes may overshadow downpours in this part of the state.

Tornado risk with Milton

As is the case with any hurricane that makes landfall, severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes can occur even dozens to hundreds of miles away from the eye.

Violent tornadoes (and waterspouts) are forecast as Milton approaches and travels across the Florida Peninsula from late Wednesday to Thursday.

Less humid air to sweep in

In the wake of Milton, a sweep of cooler, less humid air not experienced since last spring will occur later this week, which may assist those in storm recovery and cleanup operations where power is out.

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.