Whoever wins Saturday will likely leapfrog Texas to the top of the rankings. They’d hold a key Big Ten tie-breaker and would take pole position for one of the top spots in the College Football Playoff, too.
The Buckeyes are 3.5-point favorites in Eugene, but they’re going to have to buck some recent trends to leave with a win. They’ve lost four straight games to Top 5 opponents. Dan Lanning is 15-1 in Autzen Stadium. Oh, and for all the preseason “travel talk is overrated” — well Big Ten teams are 1-8 this season when they’ve had two crossover two time zones.
This is a game that’s been circled since the schedules were released, and through six weeks, Oregon is a bit more battle-tested with games against Idaho (a really good FCS team) and Boise State, but both teams have played schedules that rank between 95th-109th nationally.
The one common opponent so far? Michigan State , which lost to Oregon 31-10 and got bludgeoned in the second half against Ohio State (38-7).
The Buckeyes have been hell-on-wheels after halftime (63-0 margin in the second half the last three weeks), so will Oregon have a counter-punch in what’s expected to be a heavyweight bout?
Here’s what I’m interested in watching Saturday night between the Buckeyes and the Ducks :
For all the skill talent in this matchup, this game will be won or lost at the line of scrimmage. Could you say that for most every game? Sure, but all roads to an Oregon upset lead to its offensive and defensive lines playing their best game of the year.
After struggling to start the season, Oregon’s offensive line has finally gotten healthier (albeit still without key starter Matthew Bedford ) and more consistent. The unit hasn’t allowed a sack over the last three games. The Ducks are also carving out more holes in the run game, allowing Jordan James to pile up 10+ yard runs (20 of 88 carries).
But now they’re going up against the best defensive line in the country.
Ohio State’s front is elite against the run or pass this season.
This is going to be a major challenge for the Ducks.
On the other side of the ball, Jordan Burch , Derrick Harmon and Matayo Uiagalelei (combined 12 sacks) have been great at hounding opposing quarterbacks, but Ohio State has allowed just four sacks all season and former Alabama center Seth McLaughlin looks like one of the steals of the 2024 transfer portal cycle.
Oregon’s front has also been soft against the run at times this season. Ashton Jeanty rolled up over 200 yards and three touchdowns in Eugene, and Oregon State found some success (131 yards, two scores) on the ground. The Ducks have been much better the last two weeks, holding both UCLA and Michigan State to under 1.9 yards per carry. That’s the unit that needs to show up on Saturday.
Oregon is tasked with slowing down maybe the best two tailbacks in college football not named Ashton Jeanty. Quinshon Judkins (7.8 yards per carry) and TreVeyon Henderson (8.0 yards per carry) are gouging opponents on a heavy dose of inside zone runs in Chip Kelly’s scheme.
So far this season, Ohio State has leaned into the Michigan model of just grinding opponents into dust — with a sprinkle of Jeremiah Smith or Emeka Egbuka going nuclear 2-3 times a game.
Does Oregon’s front have any answers to slow down OSU’s run game and force Will Howard to beat them with his arm?
How much of a factor will Will Howard be in the run game?
Will Howard has a rushing touchdown in four straight games, but to say the former Kansas State quarterback has been involved (heavily or otherwise) in Ohio State’s ground game would be a vast overstatement so far in 2024.
Despite coming to Columbus as a burly dual-threat quarterback, Howard’s legs have barely been a factor this season — until last week against Iowa.
Howard has just 13 designed runs all year, per PFF, but eight of those came against the Hawkeyes last week. He didn’t have a ton of success (a long of 12 yards) but he finished with 27 yards on designed runs — which accounts for 62% of his season total thus far.
It felt like Chip Kelly was just taking the car (Howard’s legs) out for a quick drive before really cranking up the engine for a real ride this weekend. The QB-run game could be a big factor in the red zone Saturday — an area where Oregon has struggled to far defensively this year (105th nationally).
What wrinkles will Chip Kelly bust out that he hasn’t shown all season?
Will he pull a Kalen DeBoer and bust out some new formations that totally flummox Oregon’s defense? DeBoer beat Dan Lanning twice by confusing the Ducks’ defense with trips formations and package sets he hadn’t shown on tape before. This season, he did the same to Kirby Smart in Alabama’s win over Georgia.
Smart was able to adjust and plug some holes, but the damage was done. Alabama got multiple free, explosive plays for touchdowns because they were doing things Georgia hadn’t seen on film before. So what will Chip Kelly’s version of that be for Oregon?
Ohio State has been supremely vanilla so far this season.
It’s not just withholding Howard’s legs in the run game. They’ve barely gone past Page 1 of Kelly’s playbook. So just how much has he been saving just for this game?
Will we see lots of Henderson and Judkins on the field together? Does he have some creative packages to get Jeremiah Smith even further involved in the game plan? Is this the spam Emeka Egbuka game?
The chess match here should be really fun to watch.
Take quick glance at Oregon’s quarterback numbers: 78% completion with 11 touchdowns to three picks with 8.0 yards per attempt. He’s on pace for another 3,000 yards passing and has three rushing touchdowns, too.
It’s all pretty typical stuff from Dillon Gabriel, and yet the eye test doesn’t measure up the numbers through five games with the Ducks.
Gabriel hasn’t looked totally comfortable in Will Stein’s system, and while he has just three picks on the year — they’ve all come in the last two games and all have been in the red zone. Do that against Ohio State and Oregon could get run on Saturday.
Also, for as many games as Dillon Gabriel has played throughout his career (he was a freshman at UCF way back in 2019!), he’s struggled against the stiffest competition. Quarterback-wins stats are hardly the end-all, be-all, but Gabriel is just 2-9 against Top 25 teams in his career — with both wins coming last season at Oklahoma when the Sooners beat SMU and Texas.
Gabriel was great in the comeback to upset the Longhorns, and Oregon needs their sixth-year senior quarterback to have another marquee moment if they’re going to engineer the upset on Saturday.
A bonus nugget to keep an eye one: One element that would help Gabriel tremendously would be for Evan Stewart to suddenly emerge as the 5-star recruit who led the SEC in receptions two years ago at Texas A&M. Like Gabriel, Stewart also has struggled to totally find the right role in Stein’s offense. Stewart has just 16 catches on the year (tied-for third on the team), and outside of his big game against Boise State (5 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown), the former Aggies’ standout has been held to 26 yards or fewer in every other game.
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