Week 7 scouting report: Toledo football at Buffalo

The Rockets are a double-digit favorite on Saturday at Buffalo, a surprising number considering their foibles along Lake Erie and Buffalo’s win at Northern Illinois.

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Who : Toledo (4-1) at Buffalo (3-2).

When : Saturday, noon

TV : ESPNU

Follow along : Updates and analysis will be published throughout the game at toledoblade.com .

Watch : Our Rocket Rundown video series looking ahead to the game can be viewed here .

That’s the respect level of Toledo, though, which is aiming for its 10th consecutive regular-season conference win. UT's only won twice at Buffalo, and the last trip to UB Stadium was not one of them.

In 2022, the Rockets blew a 27-10 fourth-quarter lead to the Bulls, a historic collapse that nearly derailed the season. They can afford one MAC loss this season, but Toledo isn't interested.

“Heading to Buffalo this week is going to continue to be difficult,” Toledo coach Jason Candle said. “We’ve got to handle the trip going out there.”

When Toledo has the ball

Passing is Toledo’s No. 1 option, as the Rockets have found running the football difficult, partly due to a new offensive line, partly due to injuries, and partly due to opposing defenses.

Toledo is only averaging 124.4 yards per game this season. But the passing offense ranks in the top 50 at 251.4 yards per game. Quarterback Tucker Gleason is completing 63 percent of his passes and his 13 TDs are tied for 14th nationally.

Wide receiver Jerjuan Newton and tight end Anthony Torres each have five touchdown receptions to rank 13th in the country.

Buffalo ranks 77th in total defense (366.0 yards per game), 61st in passing defense (207.6 yards), 86th in rushing defense (158.4 yards), and 73rd in scoring defense (24.2 points). The Bulls rank fifth or sixth in the MAC in all four categories.

Buffalo linebacker Shaun Dolac leads the nation with 72 tackles. Fellow linebacker Red Murdock is seventh with 55. The duo also ranks third (10.5) and fourth (10.0), respectively, in tackles for loss. Dolac has two interceptions, and Murdock has two forced fumbles.

When Buffalo has the ball

Offense has not been Buffalo’s strong suit. Only five teams gain fewer yards than Buffalo's 253.6 per game. The Bulls rank 128th in passing (133.0 yards), 107th in rushing (120.6 yards), and 122nd in scoring (18.0 points).

Quarterback CJ Ogbonna is completing just over 50 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception. Buffalo's leading receiver is Victor Snow, who has 14 receptions for 189 yards and one touchdown. Jacqez Barksdale is the leading rusher with 203 yards and one TD on 46 carries.

The Rockets are 10th nationally in rush defense (86.6 yards per game) and have not allowed a single running back to gain 60 yards. They are No. 58 in total defense (342.0 yards), 111th in passing defense (255.4 yards), and 33rd in scoring defense (19.2 points).

Safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren ranks 48th in the nation with 43 total tackles and safety Braden Awls is third with three interceptions. Defensive tackle Darius Alexander ranks sixth in the MAC in tackles for loss and 16th in sacks.

Special teams

Toledo’s special teams continue to shine week in and week out. Usually, it’s the return units that stand out. Last week, placekicker Dylan Cunanan stole the show with a 48- and 47-yard field goal.

The Rockets are fifth in kick returns (30.0 yards) and 11th in punt returns (17.5 yards). Both coverage units rank in the top 50.

Buffalo only averages 15.3 yards per kick return and 9.5 yards per punt return. The kickoff coverage unit is middle of the road, while the punt coverage unit is one of the worst in the country.

Toledo will win if…

The recipe for Toledo in most of its remaining schedule is simple: don’t turn the football over. Now, that is a goal for every team in every game. But winning is even more realistic when you have superior talent and you don't turn it over. Buffalo’s offense is putrid. If Toledo scores a few touchdowns and doesn’t hand the football to the Bulls, the bus ride home should be enjoyable.

Buffalo will win if…

No opponent has been able to solve the riddle that is Toledo’s rush defense. Chances are Buffalo won’t either, so the Bulls have to find a way to score points. One is through Toledo’s own mistakes and the second is by challenging shaky cornerback play. Ogbonna should test the Rockets early. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work. Perhaps Buffalo will get creative. Considering its offensive struggles, it’s almost a necessity, especially with unremarkable special teams.