2024 NFL futures: Bengals' outlook getting darker, according to SportsLine Projection Model

Two seasons ago, the Cincinnati Bengals got off to a 2-3 start but turned things around, ending the campaign with an eight-game winning streak to finish at 12-4 before reaching the AFC Championship Game for the second straight year. The following campaign, they lost three of their first four contests but managed to end the regular season with a 9-8 record despite being without star quarterback Joe Burrow for the final seven games due to a wrist injury.

The first overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft , Burrow also had his rookie season limited to 10 games by a knee injury. But he came back strong in 2021, so much so that he was named the Comeback Player of the Year.

Burrow's ability to bounce back had many believing the Bengals would be among the teams that would challenge the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC crown. After all, they're the only club that has defeated Kansas City in the conference championship game over the last five years, doing so during Burrow's impressive 2021 campaign.

The SportsLine Projection Model initially believed in the 2024 Bengals. Prior to the start of the season, the model - which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception - had Cincinnati recording 9.4 victories while giving it a 55.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 19.7% shot to win the AFC North.

It also had the Bengals reaching the Super Bowl 8.1% of the time and winning it in 4.2% of its simulations.

Once again, Cincinnati got off to a rough start, beginning the campaign with a three-game losing streak. As a result of the struggles, the model dropped the Bengals' win projection to 7.1, their chances of qualifying for the postseason to 16.3% and their prospects to capture the division title to 4.2%. The simulations also had the team's chances of making a Super Bowl appearance at just 1.1% and hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy 0.6% of the time.

Cincinnati finally got in the win column in Week 4 with a 34-24 triumph over the Carolina Panthers . Burrow completed 22 of his 31 pass attempts for 232 yards with a pair of touchdown passes in the victory after throwing for 324 yards and three scores in a loss to the Washington Commanders a week earlier, while Chase Brown ran for 80 yards and two TDs.

The victory helped improve the model's 2024 outlook for the Bengals. Its simulations increased the team's chances to make the playoffs to 28.5%, win the division to 8.8%, get to the Super Bowl to 2.2% and win the championship to 1.2%.

Burrow followed the performance against Carolina with one of the best of his NFL tenure last weekend. The 27-year-old was 30-of-39 for 392 yards and a career-high five touchdowns versus the Baltimore Ravens , connecting a total of 19 times with wideouts Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins .

Chase and Higgins each hauled in a pair of TD passes, with the former finishing with 193 receiving yards. Over Cincinnati's last three games, Burrow has made 10 scoring tosses while Chase, his collegiate teammate at LSU, has racked up 396 yards and five TDs - all of which lead the NFL during that stretch.

However, the Bengals lost that matchup against the Ravens, blowing a 10-point lead with less than six minutes remaining en route to a 41-38 overtime setback. After Burrow and Chase teamed up for a 70-yard touchdown with 8:54 left in the contest, the SportsLine Projection Model had Cincinnati's win probability at 91%.

Following the defeat, the model's outlook for the Bengals was not promising. The simulations had their prospects of making the playoffs plummeting to 17.7%, winning the AFC North falling to 3%, reaching the Super Bowl dropping to 0.9% and taking home the Lombardi Trophy shrinking to 0.4%.

All hope is not lost for Cincinnati, however. The team still is only two games behind the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers for first place in the division and has some very winnable contests on the schedule before its bye week, beginning with Sunday night's showdown with the New York Giants .

"Their playoff percentage is under 20%, but that's still very good for a 1-4 team," said Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model. "They are still a good team, the 11th-best in our power ranking."

The Bengals have lost their last two meetings with the Giants, but by a total of three points. They have the fifth-best passing offense in the NFL with an average of 263 yards and are tied for fourth in the league in scoring at 28 points per game.

Burrow enters Week 6 with a league-high 12 touchdown passes and is sixth with 1,370 yards. Meanwhile, Chase is tied for the NFL lead with five TD catches and ranks second with 493 receiving yards. The duo, along with the rest of the offense, must continue to shine this week as the Bengals can't afford many more disappointing results before the season becomes unsalvageable.

According to the model, Baltimore has a 92.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 65.9% shot of winning the AFC North. It also says Pittsburgh reaches the postseason 74.2% of the time and has its prospects of capturing the division title at 29.8%. Those numbers don't leave much room for the Bengals to get into the playoffs.

The model is calling for a close contest between the Bengals and Giants on Sunday. However, it isn't one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the sixth week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 6 NFL picks at SportsLine.