Tropical Development Possible in Gulf of Mexico According to Long Range Weather Models

Gulf Coast Needs to Remain Vigilant

10/10/24 5:00pm ET

12Z GFS 10/10/24 for 10/22/24 2pm ETPhoto byTropical Tidbits

Good evening everyone. While our last storm is still fresh on the minds of many, and massive cleanup to be done, our tropical season is still in full swing and we may not be done yet.

It is unfortunate, but our pattern this year has been and will conitnue to yield above average tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico. This is due to stalled out fronts that haven't been making it completely past the Gulf, or making it through and refusing to die out.

Many times we watch these old fronts for development, because even in temperate latitudes, stationary fronts tend to spawn waves of low pressure that move along it. Now apply that to the tropics, and it creates an atmopshere conducive for tropical development.

At minimum, a series of strong cold fronts that will dig down deep into the Gulf of Mexico, will push through over the next couple of weeks. This will help bring unseasonably cool air to both the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Both the GFS and Euro models want to bring a tropical wave into the lower Caribbean, and have a slow moving front bring that wave up into the Gulf.

If this happens again, it'll be rinse and repeat in terms of the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida coastlines having to watch for a possible tropical storm or hurricane. We have a long way to go on this, but it's important we do not take our eye off of the ball in hopes that yesterday was the last one of the season.

National Weather Service - Latest Tropical Update