Trump takes Coachella. Why?

SACRAMENTO, California — Donald Trump has just 25 days left to raise money, court voters in swing states and eek out a victory over Kamala Harris.

So it's a seemingly curious decision to stage a big event Saturday in the California desert more closely associated with music festival goers than the MAGA set.

It’ll be 100 degrees, the state doesn’t matter for his potential return to the White House and the region’s deep pocketed donors are 150 miles away in Los Angeles.

But the 2020 election results could hold a clue as to why Trump’s headlining an event in Coachella. Of the current six competitive House races in the state, Trump is visiting the only one that he won four years ago.

Trump’s 2020 victory in the district currently held by GOP Rep. Ken Calvert was slim. But that’s exactly the type of race Calvert finds himself in now — a neck-and-neck contest where he needs to turn up every possible Trump vote to fend off a well-funded challenger.

Joy Miedecke, president of the East Valley Republican Women Patriots, is helping organize the rally. Miedecke said the group’s patriotic merch store is getting “mobbed” by Republicans rushing to buy their blinged-out Trump hats and t-shirts before the weekend festivities.

Trump might be at the top of the ticket, Miedecke said, but Republicans are still keeping a close eye on down-ballot contests.

“They're, of course, not as excited as they are about the presidential race,” she said of the patrons. “But I can tell you that this is a very tight race, and it's very scary. And so we have lots of people that are making sure they're getting their votes in just because of Calvert.”

Calvert is in a dead heat with Democratic challenger Will Rollins, who is posting massive fundraising numbers. And a recent poll showed Calvert falling on the low end of the enthusiasm gap so a shot of energy from a Trump rally could prove helpful in the final stretch. (The rally site at Calhoun Ranch is on the edge of Calvert’s district.)

Rollins’ campaign declined to comment.

Calvert’s campaign won’t say if he’ll show up for the rally. The hesitation is indicative of the torturous balancing act practiced by vulnerable California Republicans who must constantly weigh how tightly they should embrace Trump. These members can’t alienate their base, but they’ve been reluctant to be linked too closely to Trump because the former president is deeply unpopular in most of their districts. Calvert’s relatively redder seat gives him more leeway than the others in welcoming Trump into their backyards.

NRCC spokesperson Ben Petersen said “President Trump’s rally is firing up voters who will reelect Representative Ken Calvert and stop extreme liberal Will Rollins.”

Trump could also be looking to appeal to Latino voters, who consistently rank affordability and the economy as their top issues. His campaign has cast the rally as a chance to blame Harris and other Democratic leaders for turning the California Dream into a “nightmare” by saddling residents with “crushing costs” for housing and gas.

USC polling shows Trump is doing well with Latino voters in Calvert’s district compared to most of the other swing seats where Harris polls higher with the group.

The majority of the Latino voters in the area near the rally site actually reside outside of Calvert’s district — in Democratic seats held by Reps. Raul Ruiz and Mark Takano, noted Christian Grose, the lead pollster on the USC survey . Still, in a race as tight as Calvert’s, any small shift could change the outcome.

Democrats aren't ceding any ground.

Coachella Mayor Steven Hernandez plans to lead a counter-protest to the rally. He said the deep blue city, which is majority Latino, wants to show Trump that it won’t stand for his disparaging comments against the community.

“Our plan for Saturday is to just let people know that we're not going to be intimidated,” he said.

Dan Gottlieb, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said: “Even after Trump tried to block disaster aid for our firefighters, jacked up Californians' taxes to reward buddies in other states, and bragged about taking reproductive freedom away from women, Ken Calvert is right there, sitting on Trump’s lap, applauding.”

Maybe, at the end of the day, Trump just has a certain affection for California — though we think that’s probably unlikely.

Miedecke, with the East Valley Republican Women, said the RNC asked that McDonald's hamburgers be delivered to Trump’s plane after the rally. A true California lover would’ve gone for In-N-Out.

Like this content? Consider signing up for POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter.