<body><div><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=4K2n9E_0w355jnG00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=4K2n9E_0w355jnG00" width="1440" height="810" >Week 6 Byes: KC, LAR, MIA, MINHello, and welcome to my Week 6 Expected Points article.For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:<ul><li>50 running backs</li><li>50 wide receivers</li><li>24 tight ends</li></ul>With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 6, here are some guys who caught my eye.<h2>Running Backs</h2><h2>Week 5 Expected Points</h2>PlayerTeamPosEPFPOEPPRD’Andre SwiftCHIRB23.6-3.620.0Trey SermonINDRB22.4-4.118.3Kareem HuntKCRB18.60.118.7Alvin KamaraNORB17-4.412.6Dare OgunbowaleHOURB16.9-2.214.7Javonte WilliamsDENRB16.6-0.516.1Kyren WilliamsLARRB16.5117.5James CookBUFRB16.11.817.9Rico DowdleDALRB15.63.819.4James ConnerARIRB15.3-1.314.0Eric GrayNYGRB13.6-5.28.4Chase BrownCINRB13.52.916.4Kenneth Walker IIISEARB13.51.114.6Alexander MattisonLVRB13.2-3.110.1Zack MossCINRB12.9-4.78.2Derrick HenryBALRB12.83.816.6Travis EtienneJACRB12.6-0.612.0Josh JacobsGBRB12.4416.4Raheem MostertMIARB12.3-0.511.8Rhamondre StevensonNERB11.67.619.2Tyrone Tracy JrNYGRB11.52.514.0Rachaad WhiteTBRB11.4-1.89.6Chuba HubbardCARRB11.28.319.5Roschon JohnsonCHIRB10.73.814.5Bucky IrvingTBRB10.6-37.6Bijan RobinsonATLRB10.20.510.7Ty ChandlerMINRB10.1-4.25.9Breece HallNYJRB9.9-3.26.7Najee HarrisPITRB9.8-0.19.7Jaleel McLaughlinDENRB9.42.111.5Jordan MasonSFRB9.41.410.8Tank BigsbyJACRB9.416.525.9Brian Robinson JrWASRB94.813.8Cam AkersHOURB8.83.912.7Ameer AbdullahLVRB8.35.814.1Jerome FordCLERB8.3-0.47.9Blake CorumLARRB7.6-3.34.3Tyler AllgeierATLRB7.4-1.95.5Zach CharbonnetSEARB7.4-1.46.0Tyler GoodsonINDRB7.11.68.7Austin EkelerWASRB6.55.211.7Jaylen WrightMIARB6.52.18.6Justice HillBALRB6.4-2.93.5Miles SandersCARRB5.7-0.45.3D’Onta ForemanCLERB5.41.67.0Jeremy McNicholsWASRB5.4510.4Aaron JonesMINRB5.11.26.3Emanuel WilsonGBRB4.9-2.42.5Braelon AllenNYJRB4.8-13.8D’Ernest JohnsonJACRB4.4-1.43.0<h2>Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN, 9.4 Expected Points)</h2>Things haven’t been great for Jaleel McLaughlin. In fact, things haven’t been great for Broncos running backs as a whole. Javonte Williams, the team’s leading rusher, has yet to find the end zone this season, and both Williams and McLaughlin appeared to be losing work to Tyler Badie before he exited Week 4 with a back injury.In Week 5, Williams and McLaughlin went back to seeing the kind of work expected at the start of the season. McLaughlin handled six carries in last week’s win over the Raiders and caught 3-of-4 passes for one yard and one touchdown to give him 11.5 fantasy points for the week.Running back targets have been there for the Broncos all season. As a team, Denver has the second-most running back targets (38) this season but ranks just 19th in receiving yards per game (30.2). McLaughlin has an inexplicable 11 receiving yards on 10 receptions — a number that feels like it’s due for some positive regression at some point.The four targets McLaughlin saw in Week 5 were his most since Week 1. With several high-end running backs on bye this week, he saw enough opportunities in Week 5 to make him a worthwhile dart throw against the Chargers.<h2>Tank Bigsby (9.4 Expected Points)</h2>Tank Bigsby ran for a career-high 13-101-2 against the Colts last week and has been among the most efficient backs in the league this season on his 34 rush attempts.Among running backs who have seen 30-plus carries this season, Bigsby ranks:<ul><li>1st in YPC (8.0)</li><li>1st in YCO/ATT (6.47)</li><li>5th in missed tackles forced (18)</li><li>1st in MTF rate (52.9 percent)</li></ul>On the one hand, Bigsby is due for some massive regression from these impressive totals. On the other hand, he’s been too good to sit in Week 6 against a Bears run defense that ranks 29th in YBCO/ATT (2.45) and has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate (6.3 percent). Travis Etienne is also dealing with a shoulder injury that has plagued him for the last several weeks.Bigsby is slowly emerging as a potential hero to the Zero RB faithful, although he’s not quite there yet. With a chance to build on this season’s hot start in Week 6, I’d expect another double-digit touch outing for Bigsby against a team that should provide him plenty of running room.Dominate the season with FantasyLife+, which gives you the award-winning tools, rankings, and projections to make this fantasy season one for the ages! Use promo code SEASON20 for 20% at checkout. Click here to get started.<h2>Wide Receivers</h2><h2>Week 5 Expected Points</h2>PlayerTeamEPFPOEPPRGarrett WilsonNYJ38.9-9.829.1Darnell MooneyATL26.25.331.5Drake LondonATL23.310.133.4Tee HigginsCIN236.329.3Justin JeffersonMIN21.2-615.2Zay FlowersBAL20.1-1.119.0Brandon AiyukSF19.33.422.7Ja’Marr ChaseCIN19.32241.3Josh DownsIND19.2-3.315.9Jalen TolbertDAL18.43.321.7Tutu AtwellLAR18.2-5.712.5Darius SlaytonNYG17.98.326.2Allen LazardNYJ17.4-413.4Wan’Dale RobinsonNYG15.40.616.0Jordan WhittingtonLAR15.20.715.9CeeDee LambDAL15-3.611.4JuJu Smith-SchusterKC14.85.220.0Michael Pittman JrIND14.8-0.114.7Demario DouglasNE14.3-2.411.9Tyreek HillMIA14.3-1.412.9Ray-Ray McCloudATL14.2-1.612.6Amari CooperCLE14.1-4.110.0Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA13.9-0.813.1Rashid ShaheedNO13.84.818.6Xavier WorthyKC13.7-1.911.8Stefon DiggsHOU13.50.714.2Terry McLaurinWAS13.51.915.4Jakobi MeyersLV13.3-0.113.2DJ MooreCHI13.214.327.5Jaylen WaddleMIA13.1-4.58.6Adonai MitchellIND13-3.69.4Jordan AddisonMIN12.9-6.36.6Mike EvansTB12.111.123.2Rashod BatemanBAL11.93.915.8Keon ColemanBUF11.60.311.9Brian Thomas JrJAC11.511.723.2Diontae JohnsonCAR11.1-5.25.9Jayden ReedGB10.82.913.7Keenan AllenCHI10.7-4.46.3Tyler LockettSEA10.60.911.5Dontayvion WicksGB10.5-6.54.0Rome OdunzeCHI10.3-1.39.0Michael WilsonARI102.812.8DK MetcalfSEA9.9-0.49.5George PickensPIT9.9-4.35.6Chris GodwinTB9.81.811.6Demarcus RobinsonLAR9.62.211.8KaVontae TurpinDAL9.6-1.28.4Marvin Harrison JrARI9.6-45.6Tre TuckerLV8.8-4.24.6<h2>Demario Douglas (14.3 Expected Points)</h2>After seeing just three targets through the first two games of the season, Demario Douglas has been targeted 21 times since Week 3, which includes two nine-target performances against the Jets and Dolphins.Over that span, 18 of Douglas’ targets have come on first reads, per FantasyPoints.com, and his 24.7 percent TPRR ranks 30th amongst 50 receivers (min. 15 targets) since Week 3.When set to a neutral game script, the Patriots are throwing at a 49 percent rate, which ranks 19th in the league. When trailing by three or more points, the Patriots throw at a 63 percent rate.The Pats play host to a 4-1 Texans team and are currently a seven-point underdog on Bet MGM. They’re also starting Drake Maye — who should be able to extend a few more plays in the pocket — for the first time this season.New England will have no choice but to throw if they hope to keep pace with Houston in Week 6. A strong PPR scam could be in store for Douglas in a week where guys like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and others are on bye.<h2>Adonai Mitchell (13.0 Expected Points)</h2>The Colts are on the verge of having to shoehorn Adonai Mitchell into the lineup for Week 6. Michael Pittman is expected to miss multiple weeks with a back injury, and Josh Downs has missed both practices to open the week with a toe injury.Mitchell has played on just 101 offensive snaps this season and has run only 66 routes. However, Mitchell has been targeted on 20 of his 66 routes this season, good for an impressive 30.3 percent targets per route run. If a full-time player were earning a TPRR north of 30 percent, we would have no choice but to start him.We could be a Friday injury report away from learning that Wicks will see a full workload which could make for a productive fantasy week against the Titans.<h2>Dontayvion Wicks (10.5 Expected Points)</h2>Dontayvion Wicks was one of the chalkiest plays of Week 5 after posting a 5-78-2 line on 13 targets in Week 4. It was only natural that he would put up a 2-20-0 stinker in a week where everybody — myself included — was obscenely high on him.Wicks was a total dud last week, but if Christian Watson (ankle) is unable to play in Week 6 against the Cardinals, I’m more than comfortable with giving Wicks a chance to redeem himself.In a lot of ways, Wicks did everything we hoped heading into last week’s game against the Rams. His 24 routes run, per PFF, trailed only Jayden Reed, while his seven targets led the team. According to RotoViz.com, however, amongst the 55 receivers who saw five or more targets last week, Wicks’ 57 percent catchable target rate ranked 52nd among the group.The Cardinals have proven to be a stout pass defense this season and haven’t allowed more than 233 passing yards in a game, but the Packers continue to run a high rate of 11 personnel. Wicks hitting will be largely contingent on Watson — who has been limited in both practices — missing Sunday’s game. If Watson is out, those still holding Wicks should fire him up as a WR3 who could easily out-play his projections.<h2>Tight Ends</h2><h2>Week 5 Expected Points</h2>PlayerTeamEPFPOEPPRGeorge KittleSF28.1-7.720.4Colby ParkinsonLAR20.8-8.612.2Brock BowersLV19.34.423.7Travis KelceKC18.7-2.716.0Zach ErtzWAS16.2-13.23.0Tyler ConklinNYJ14.8-3.311.5Trey McBrideARI14.2-2.911.3Kyle PittsATL12.13.715.8Jordan AkinsCLE11.10.111.2Jake FergusonDAL11213Jonnu SmithMIA110.111.1Dalton SchultzHOU10.6-3.27.4Tucker KraftGB10.114.724.8Mark AndrewsBAL9.9-0.49.5Isaiah LikelyBAL8.97.416.3Ja’Tavion SandersCAR8.6-4.34.3Mo Alie-CoxIND8.53.211.7Charlie KolarBAL8.47.215.6Dalton KincaidBUF8.1-2.75.4Brenton StrangeJAC84.412.4Theo JohnsonNYG81.89.8Juwan JohnsonNO7.90.28.1Hunter HenryNE7.3-2.15.2Pat FreiermuthPIT7.33.911.2<h2>Dalton Schultz (HOU, 10.6 Expected Points)</h2>Dalton Schultz had a season-high seven targets in the Texans’ Week 5 win over the Bills. It’s probably no coincidence that this came in a game where Nico Collins exited in the first quarter with a hamstring injury.In his first season with the Texans, Schultz totaled 59 receptions for 635 yards and five touchdowns on 88 targets. He finished as the TE11 in fantasy points per game (10.2) and was the TE12 in total expected fantasy points (142.9).Currently rostered in just 66 percent of fantasy leagues on Sleeper, Schultz gets a Patriots defense that has allowed double-digit fantasy points to Tyler Conklin (14.3), George Kittle (14.5), and Jonnu Smith (11.1) over the last three weeks. With Collins now on injured reserve, Schultz could make for a valuable streaming option for anybody in need of help at the position this week.NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.</div></body>

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Week 6 Expected Points: Backup RBs key to surviving tough bye week

Hello, and welcome to my Week 6 Expected Points article. For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Week 6 Expected Points: Backup RBs key to surviving tough bye week

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