Arizona Weatherman’s long-range prediction for winter potential of the 2024-2025 season

Will Arizona have a colder, snowy winter or a warmer and drier winter season for 2024 into 2025? This article will delve into the different weather parameters and seasonal factors. The Arizona Weatherman will also provide a summary and a forecast for this upcoming Arizona winter season based on the available data.

Snow image for Arizona 2024 to 2025 winter season.Photo byPeng ChenonUnsplash

So far, this fall has begun with a solid streak of record-breaking temperatures, especially for Southern Arizona. Over the past two weeks, both Phoenix and Tucson have had many record-breaking high temperatures with no rain. Additionally, the East Pacific tropical basin has almost completely shut off early, with no attributable topical moisture making its way up into Arizona during the month of October. This ominous hot and dry start to fall is looking to be a harbinger of future winter weather for the state.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been predicting that La Nina was coming since this summer. That prediction has been moved down the road. As of 11 Oct 2024, the revised CPC La Nina forecast is for “La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.” Furthermore, the CPC forecasters are looking at a significantly weaker La Nina event than originally forecast a few months ago. How will this impact Arizona? A La Nina event typically produces a drier and warmer winter for the state. However, with this revised CPC forecast, the weaker La Nina may impact this upcoming winter season less. Therefore, this is not a definitive signal to hang the proverbial hat on it but should be considered in the long-range forecast.

The CPC seasonal temperature forecast for Arizona Dec 2024 to Feb 2025.Photo byClimate Prediction Center (CPC)

The CPC winter seasonal outlook for Dec 2024 to Feb 2025 forecasts that there is a 40-50% chance of temperatures leaning slightly above normal for much of the state. This is not a ringing endorsement for significantly higher temperatures for the state. However, the CPC is still leaning towards warmer Arizona temperatures this winter.

The CPC seasonal precipitation forecast for Arizona Dec 2024 to Feb 2025.Photo byClimate Prediction Center (CPC)

The CPC winter seasonal outlook for Dec 2024 to Feb 2025 forecasts a 40-50% chance of slightly below-normal precipitation for the state. This would mean less snow for the higher Mogollon Rim locations and less rain for the lower desert regions of the state. Again, it was hedging toward the lower side of the seasonal precipitation spectrum.

Therefore, the Arizona Weatherman, looking at the current weather trends, the long-range climatological factors, and his magic crystal ball, is forecasting that Southern Arizona will be warmer and drier winter for 2024-2025 than normal and for the upstate on the Mogollon Rim for a slightly warmer and average to below average snowfall for the upcoming season. There are no fundamental significant driving factors that place great emphasis on one way or the other, but there are weaker long-term signals that determine the likelihood of the upcoming winter season. Unfortunately, this fall season is off to a hot and dry start, and it is looking to continue into the next several months.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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