The five factions Johnson has to appease to keep the speakership next year

Mike Johnson has about a month left to solve his speakership math problem.

He may have earned unanimous GOP support to lead the House a year ago, after the divisive and chaotic ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, but he can’t count on those numbers again. Fierce critics turned against Johnson within weeks of backing his bid for the gavel, taking issue with the GOP leader’s dealmaking with Democrats to prevent government shutdowns.

If House Republicans keep the majority, Johnson will face public and private criticism from multiple factions of the conference. The easiest way to defang his detractors would be growing his House majority significantly. But if he doesn’t manage to do that on Election Day, he’ll have to work to appease those pockets of opposition. If the GOP keeps the House majority by only a narrow margin, he can only afford to lose a handful of Republicans in a Jan. 3 speakership vote on the House floor.

His most outspoken and well-known critics are the nearly dozen GOP lawmakers who voted to advance an ouster effort against him earlier this year, but they’re not alone. While the majority of Republicans support Johnson, saying he has the right temperament for the difficult job, others are publicly venting about his spending strategies and privately questioning his future — or even floating alternatives.

Right now, Johnson says he’s not sweating it, adding he’s done his best to maintain good relationships throughout his conference.

“There's a passage of scripture that I think of all time that says: ‘So much as it is possible, be at peace with all men.’ So, that's my responsibility. It's my role. I can't control what other people do or say,” Johnson told POLITICO.

Just shy of his first anniversary as speaker, here’s a breakdown of the factions to watch as Johnson tries to hold onto power:

Anti-Johnson 11

Eleven conservatives advanced an ouster effort against Johnson in May that failed after Democrats sided with most Republicans to block it. Unsurprisingly, this group is Johnson’s biggest potential headache.

Republicans view their three colleagues who spearheaded that effort — Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) — as the most likely to vote against Johnson in a future speakership vote, regardless of what he does in the coming months.

While eight more Republicans opted to vote to advance the ouster resolution, it’s not certain that all of them would’ve actually approved removing Johnson. Trump had made public statements supporting the speaker at the time, and Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) told POLITICO previously that Trump’s opinion was significant and protected the speaker.

While Crane was one of the 11, he told POLITICO in mid-April that Trump’s backing of Johnson prompted the Arizona Republican to back off from further pursuing an ejection effort. He added that he’ll be paying attention to the former president’s position in the coming months.

Another Republican who voted to advance the effort, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said their decision was partially motivated by not wanting to side with Democrats who came to Johnson’s aid — not necessarily their issues with the speaker himself.

Two more, Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), have vented about Johnson’s recent decisions on spending bills but have declined to say how they would vote for speaker. Biggs and Crane also backed McCarthy’s ouster last year.

Other members in that group of 11 have largely declined to indicate how they would vote on a future Johnson speakership bid.

Disgruntled Republicans

Outside of those 11, there is a broader group of conservative members who are frustrated with Johnson but less vocal.

That includes Republicans who opposed the effort to boot Johnson in May, arguing that doing so risked too much chaos in an election year and could even result in a Democratic speaker. But more than a dozen have indicated they might be ready for new leadership come January.

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) is one member of that group. She previously told POLITICO in late April that while she didn’t support the so-called motion to vacate against Johnson, she wouldn’t back him for a leadership role again after he green-lighted a vote to send more aid to Ukraine.

“I can tell you this: I will never support Speaker Mike Johnson as speaker again. That’s for certain,” Boebert said at the time.

Other Republicans say they like Johnson, but they’re frustrated that he hasn’t played hardball against Democrats like they hoped he would when they elected him in October.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) declined to say if he would vote for Johnson, telling POLITICO that it depends on how the rest of the year plays out — a sentiment widely shared among this group. He added that while Johnson “has a general likeability because he’s honest,” he argued Republicans need the “hardball tactics that a Nancy Pelosi has” in their fiscal battles.

Rivals’ allies

There’s another, difficult-to-navigate wrinkle: Other members are quietly considering making their own bid for top spots. Even if they defer to Johnson, the speaker still has to worry about their allies.

A major player here is Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). The current Judiciary Committee chair has dozens of staunch conservatives who privately say they want to see him in the top spot. And while Jordan has stated he would not challenge Johnson for speaker, some members are already floating a Jordan leadership trial balloon. That could mean they oppose Johnson in favor of Jordan.

Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), who was elected Freedom Caucus chair last month, name-checked Jordan as someone he wants to see in leadership. Harris opposed booting Johnson earlier this year.

"I like Jim Jordan. I think he should have a shot at being speaker. I think he will have a shot at being speaker after the election,” Harris said back in March.

He’s not the only one pointing at the Ohio Republican, who tried to become speaker last fall but was blocked by a coalition of centrists and allies of Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.).

During the September funding fight, Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) predicted to reporters that Johnson will need Democratic help to keep the gavel in January and floated Jordan as someone who he thought would have been a “great” speaker. And Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) is dodging questions about the next leadership fight after he advanced the Johnson ouster effort earlier this year.

First-term members

The incoming class of House Republicans will be another wild card in the speakership election. And many of them have not yet indicated where they stand.

Trump’s influence could sway some in the group. One incoming member, granted anonymity to speak frankly, said that they would take direction from the former president. Others are waiting to see the outcome of the November election before going public on their decisions.

POLITICO reached out to about two dozen GOP candidates expected to serve in the House next term, after they won their primary races in safe red seats. About half of those expected incoming members did not respond to questions about where they stand on the leadership race. A handful of them indicated they plan to back Johnson.

Many of the new lawmakers will replace Republicans who were already in Johnson’s camp, though there are a few in the incoming class who will replace some hardliners — like John McGuire, who defeated Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) in a nasty primary. Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who advanced the effort against Johnson, is retiring, as is perennial leadership thorn Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.).

And at least one candidate who is expected to join the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus indicated that they would back Johnson for speaker, if they keep the majority: Mark Harris of North Carolina, who is running in the seat currently held by retiring Rep. Dan Bishop.

“I think Mike's doing a phenomenal job. I thought he is in an incredibly difficult place with the vote margins that he's working with. And … he has been working his tail off all over the country, raising money, trying to help the candidates, trying to increase the majority,” Harris said in an interview last month. “And I think that if he increases the majority, I think there's no question that he's going to have that next time as speaker.”

Another conservative candidate, Abe Hamadeh of Arizona, praised Johnson, but didn’t say directly how he’d cast his vote.

It’s worth noting that first-term members change their minds on leadership votes more readily than veteran lawmakers. About one-quarter of the twenty Republicans who voted to block McCarthy from the speakership last January were new members. They later agreed to back McCarthy after he made various concessions.

Silent Republicans

There are a number of Republicans who privately kvetch that they will oppose Johnson in January, but publicly they give themselves room to reverse their position — looking to avoid blowback or potentially crossing Trump.

“I feel completely justified going back home and saying: ‘Why would I sign up for this again?’ No chance,” said one House Republican, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly, referring to how Johnson has led the conference.

It’s harder to quantify how many members belong to this group, or how many are serious about opposing Johnson. Their decisions could highly depend on both Trump and the November election results, and the looming December funding fight could also play a role.

They also may want to avoid the lobbying that could ensue if they publicly opposed Johnson now. A handful have privately floated that they hope Johnson will bow out if it becomes clear he can’t win the gavel again. But other frustrated members concede there isn’t a viable candidate to replace him if they win the majority in November.

Johnson will have a better idea how large his opposition is — though not exactly who is in it — when the conference holds a secret-ballot, simple-majority vote to name their speaker nominee in November. The tougher, full House vote follows in January.