Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2024-25: Sleepers, breakouts and busts by advanced NBA computer model
By CBS Sports Staff,
16 hours ago
DeMar DeRozan is a six-time NBA All-Star and was one of the most clutch players in the league during his three seasons with the Bulls. Now the mid-range juggernaut will join forces with Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox in Sacramento as the Kings look to improve on a 46-win season in 2023-24. How will DeRozan fit on a talented young roster and where exactly should you be targeting each of those three players in your upcoming 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts?
SportsLine's proven model simulates each season 10,0000 times. This model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. These cheat sheets and rankings, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. Any time an injury occurs or there's a change on a roster, the team at SportsLine updates its cheat sheets.
Last year the model called Thunder G/F Josh Giddey a bust, predicting that he would never live up to his sixth-round ADP. The result: Giddey had his minutes reduced significantly with Oklahoma City's roster improving and saw corresponding drops in points (16.6 to 12.3), rebounds (7.9 to 6.4) assists (6.2 to 4.8) and steals (0.8 to 0.6). The Thunder ultimately decided to trade him to the Bulls for Alex Caruso this offseason and Fantasy basketball managers who avoided the headache last season were better off for it.
The model also nailed DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in 2021-22 before he averaged a career-best 27.9 points per game and called Paolo Banchero's and Victor Wembanyama's breakout seasons before they went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors the last two seasons. Anyone who followed the model's Fantasy basketball advice on them was well on their way to making a deep postseason run.
One of the top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers the model is predicting: Suns center Jusuf Nurkic. In his 10th NBA season last year, and first in Phoenix, Nurkic averaged a double-double with 10.9 points and 11 rebounds per game. He also filled up the box score, averaging 4 assists, which ranked fifth amongst centers, to go along with 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per night. Add in that he shot over 50% from the field, and Nurkic provided both the Suns and Fantasy managers everything you'd want out of a big man.
He gets overlooked playing alongside Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, and he isn't a go-to option on offense, but Nurkic provides stability, with no glaring holes to Fantasy basketball lineups. He also showed durability last season in playing 76 games after averaging just 38.3 games over his previous four seasons. The SportsLine model has Nurkic amongst the top 10 centers in the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings, and even has him on par with the man he replaced in Phoenix, Deandre Ayton, despite Ayton being drafted multiple rounds earlier on average. See more Fantasy basketball sleepers 2024 here .
Top 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts
One of the 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts the model has identified: Wizards PF/C Alex Sarr . The 19-year-old Frenchman is 7-feet tall with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and he was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft . Sarr moved to the United States in 2021 to play for Overtime Elite and then got significant professional experience playing for Perth in Australia last season.
Sarr averaged 9.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in around 17 minutes per game for Perth and he's an extremely high-upside prospect for the Wizards. Initially, expect Sarr to use his length and athleticism to affect the game as a stretch big and a rim protector. The model projects Sarr as a top-45 forward in his rookie season despite the fact that he's been the 64th forward off the board on average. Identify other Fantasy basketball breakouts 2024 here .
Top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts
As for players to avoid, the model lists Thunder forward Jalen Williams as one of its top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts. The No. 12 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft was the runner-up for NBA Rookie of the Year honors in 2023 and then finished fourth in most improved player voting last season after averaging 19.1 points, 4.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds in 2023-24.
However, Williams saw his usage rates wane late in the regular season and only averaged 11.8 points per game in April. With the addition of Alex Caruso this offseason, Williams could see his role reduced slightly in favor of Caruso and Luguentz Dort on the wing for defensive purposes. That's a big reason why the model ranks Williams outside the top 25 Fantasy basketball forwards for 2024-25. Avoid these 2024 Fantasy basketball busts as well .
How to find proven 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings
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