Internal polling memo has warning signs for Senate Republicans

The top GOP super PAC charged with flipping the Senate has found that most of its candidates are trailing their Democratic opponents, according to an internal polling memo obtained by POLITICO.

The new round of October polling from the Senate Leadership Fund shows all but one Republican candidate running behind Donald Trump in battleground states, a pattern that could sharply limit their ability to build a sizable majority unless they can force a change in the final weeks of the election.

Republicans are still favored to take control of the chamber, and their data brought some hopeful news with tightening races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But other pickup opportunities, namely Maryland and Michigan, are moving in the wrong direction. And Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown , one of the two incumbents running in a state Trump won in 2020, looks surprisingly strong in Ohio.

The 2024 map is full of offensive targets for Republicans, including open seats in Michigan, Maryland and Arizona. They have a near-certain pickup in West Virginia and polling has consistently shown the GOP is ahead in Montana. But it’s unclear how many of the other seats Republicans are poised to flip. They’ve struggled from a serious fundraising gap at the candidate level. And Democrats have built large polling leads in some battlegrounds.

And now two GOP-held states, Texas and Nebraska, may be emerging as late-breaking problem spots.

“We still have a lot of work to do to maximize our gains in this critical Senate election,” the group’s president, Steven Law, wrote in the memo. “We need to add media markets and expand into the final week in all our target states. We also have to guard our flanks.”

Some notable takeaways:

• Republicans have a modest but durable lead in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has trailed Republican Tim Sheehy in recent public polling.

• In Ohio, Brown has dropped 7 percentage points since August but is still leading Republican Bernie Moreno by 6 points as of mid-October, and Moreno is running 8 points behind Trump.

• The group sees tightening races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) just 2 points ahead and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) just 1 point ahead in October surveys.

• Open-seat races in Michigan and Maryland are moving away from the GOP, with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan down 7 points in the group’s last two polls and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) growing her lead between September and October.

• The memo warns of two defensive problems: In Texas, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is only up 1 point in the latest poll, and Law describes Nebraska as “a serious trouble-spot” where they are polling to “assess whether intervention is necessary” to help GOP Sen. Deb Fischer . (The incumbent released a poll last week showing her up 6 points.)

SLF or allied groups have been repeatedly polling across the top states, including twice in September alone in some of them, as they weigh financial investments in the final stretch. The nine-page memo, dated Oct. 8, noted that the group "will roll out further investments in these top-priority Senate races, based on our latest polling” by early next week.
Senate polling has diverged greatly at times this cycle, and some of SLF’s numbers do not match some private polls conducted by the Senate GOP campaign arm and others, especially in Texas, Ohio and Michigan. Many of the SLF polls are also likely in the margin of error.

But it's SLF data that will primarily drive how the group spends tens of millions in the final weeks of the race.

SLF declined to comment on the memo, which was provided to POLITICO by someone outside the group.

Mixed results in the red states

The memo underscores just why Montana is the most vulnerable state for Democrats. Sheehy led Tester by 4 points, 48 to 44 percent, in SLF’s October poll of the race — a slightly smaller edge than in some recent public polls. Republicans have seen Tester’s vote share drop just 2 points since August, but they’ve had him down in the last four polls.

Democrats continue to publicly express optimism that Tester can prevail. And because they are still dumping resources into the race, the memo notes that “it’s too early to declare victory and shift resources elsewhere.” Sheehy is also polling 9 points behind Trump.

Ohio, the other Senate battleground that Trump is almost certain to win, is a less rosy picture. Brown led Moreno 45 to 39 points in a mid-October survey. Republicans are encouraged that the incumbent dropped from an 11-point lead in August. But Moreno is running far behind Trump’s 47 percent and his favorability remains underwater. Brown’s is still rightside up but has dropped by a net 13 points since August.

“Brown has massively outspent Moreno on TV, inflicting serious damage on Moreno’s image that is preventing him from closing the ballot gap,” the memo reads. “This week’s results may be a tad pessimistic, but Moreno has to close the sale.”

Bright spots in the Rust Belt

Republicans appear to be narrowing the gap in their attempts to oust incumbents in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states where they landed self-funding candidates.

In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick has whittled down Casey’s advantage from 5 points in August to 2 points in October. He trails Casey 46 to 48 percent as Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump by 1 point. SLF notes that massive GOP advertising has helped reverse Casey’s job approval rating by a net 15 points.

“No GOP Senate candidate this year lives up to Winston Churchill’s famous injunction ‘Deserve Victory’ more than Dave McCormick,” the memo reads. But “McCormick still needs to close the gap with Trump on the ballot, and Trump needs to win.”

McCormick is running 2 points behind Trump in the October SLF survey. It could be hard for him to oust the incumbent if Casey is picking off some Trump voters.

Wisconsin has become “a top priority” for SLF. Republican Eric Hovde has narrowed down the race from a 5-point lead for Baldwin in mid-September to a 1-point lead for her in October. Baldwin is up 46 to 45 percent in the latest survey — the reverse of the presidential race where Trump leads Harris 46 to 45 points.

“Baldwin’s negatives are higher than Hovde’s and the ballot has closed to a statistical dead-heat,” the memo reads.

Warning signs for Republicans in 2 open seats

In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic nominee, has grown her advantage during September.

She trailed former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers by 1 point, 43 to 44 percent, in August. But she used her monster fundraising edge over the summer to boost her margin up to 8 points, 46 percent to 38 percent, by October. Slotkin is above water by 9 points, with Rogers down by 7 points in October.

“The climb in Mike Rogers’ unfavorable numbers and his drop on the ballot are a textbook case of what happens when a candidate isn’t on the air to shape his image and deflect attacks,” per the memo. “Still, the tightness of the presidential race and tied generic Senate ballot indicate the environment is ripe for a GOP win.”

Rogers is also running 4 points behind Trump. And Trump trails Harris 42 percent to 45 percent in October. The generic Senate ballot, however, is tied.

Republicans have poured some $20 million into boosting Hogan against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in the race for Maryland’s open Senate seat. The deep blue state was always a tough pickup opportunity, but Hogan was an exceptionally popular Republican governor known for his bipartisan approach.

In early September, Hogan was up 8 points. But by mid-September his lead fell drastically. Alsobrooks leads Hogan 48 to 41 percent in both mid-September and October polls, which the memo indicates was conducted by Maryland’s Future, a pro-Hogan super PAC.

“Gov. Hogan has been knocked back on the ballot after intensive advertising by Alsobrooks and national Democrats on abortion and being a Republican,” the memo reads. But the group insists the race isn’t over, pointing to a slew of stories raising questions about Alsobrooks’ tax payments .

Hogan has repeatedly portrayed his path to victory as localizing the contest. “If this race becomes a choice between a negatively defined Alsobrooks vs. Hogan instead of Red vs. Blue, Hogan has a decent chance to win,” the memo says.

Both candidates have an above-water favorability, but Hogan’s is at 57 percent while Alsobrooks’ is at 44 percent.

Siren in Texas

SLF’s polling found Cruz’s lead over Democratic Rep. Colin Allred slipping in Texas from 3 points in mid-September to 1 point in October.

“Beginning in early August, Colin Allred has been heavily outspending Ted Cruz,” the memo reads. But outside GOP groups have been trying to close that gap. The memo teases fresh GOP polling in the state that the group will have next week.

Democrats sense opportunity in Texas because of Cruz’s unpopularity and SLF’s numbers reflect that. Cruz’s favorability is above water by just 1 point at 49/48 while Allred’s is up 12 points at 48/36. Meanwhile, Allred is running 2 points ahead of Harris while Cruz is running 2 points behind Trump.

Democrats have long yearned to flip Texas — and they came close in 2018 when Cruz was last up for reelection. But the state is big and expensive, and it can be a real money drain if either side is forced to dump resources in the closing weeks.

2 Southwestern targets are looking increasingly out of reach

SLF sounds far less positive about Nevada, where Republican Sam Brown trails first-term Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen by 7 points, 36 to 43 percent. That roughly matches the group’s September polling as well.

“Despite Jacky Rosen’s worsening image and weakness on the ballot, Sam Brown has struggled to close the gap in this race, largely due to nonstop ads savaging him on abortion,” the memo reads. The tied presidential race is a good sign, he said, “but this is also a state where Democrats have vastly superior organization on the ground—and that can deliver a couple extra points in a close race.”

Brown was polling 10 points behind Trump in October.

SLF has not invested in TV ads for Nevada or Arizona, where Republican Kari Lake is battling Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego for retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema ’s seat. SLF polling there shows Gallego’s lead increasing from 3 points, 50 to 47 percent, in August to 5 points, 47 to 42 percent, in October.

Notably Lake’s favorability rating is below water by 16 points, with just 37 holding a favorable view of her. Gallego’s rightside up at 40/36.

Arizona is the only state in the memo where SLF did not include a note analyzing the polling.