Where Clemson Stands in Dinich’s Latest CFP Top 12 Projection

ESPN’s lead College Football Playoff insider gave her latest prediction of the CFP selection committee’s top 12 if that ranking came out today.

On Sunday, Heather Dinich updated where things stand in the 12-team CFP picture after Week 7 of the season.

Following Clemson’s 49-14 win at Wake Forest, the Tigers (5-1, 4-0 ACC) are at No. 8 in Dinich’s latest projection (subscription required) of the CFP top 12 – right behind No. 7 Miami in her projection.

Dinich weighed in on why Clemson could be ranked No. 8 – and why the Tigers could be ranked higher than that:

“Since the season-opening loss to Georgia, Clemson has reeled off five straight wins and scored at least 40 points in four of them. The Tigers also added back-to-back road wins to their résumé. Still, none of those wins have been against ranked opponents and none of them have a winning record. That’s something that will hold them back in the committee meeting room, especially when most, if not all, contenders ranked above them have played a tougher schedule and/or are undefeated. The committee would also still honor Georgia’s season-opening win against the Tigers, and Clemson probably would be behind Bama because the Tide was able to beat Georgia and Clemson did not.

“Unlike Alabama (South Carolina), Georgia (Mississippi State) and Miami (Virginia Tech and Cal), Clemson has manhandled every unranked team it has faced. In the past, the committee has been wowed by a team’s sheer dominance as a way of compensating for a weaker schedule, and those teams typically have NFL-caliber talent to prove it.”

As for the toughest game left on Clemson’s schedule, Dinich sees that being the Nov. 16 matchup at currently undefeated Pitt (6-0, 2-0 ACC).

Dinich believes that game, as well as the regular season finale against rival South Carolina, provide Clemson with a little more leeway than Miami as an at-large playoff contender if the Tigers don’t claim the ACC title:

“At least right now. The committee takes into account rivalry games, and Clemson still has South Carolina, which proved it has a defense against Bama on Saturday. Getting a road win against a ranked Pitt team that is currently undefeated would also be valued by the group.”

Under the 12-team playoff format, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and each will receive a first-round bye.

Based on Dinich’s latest projected top 12, Texas would be the No. 1 seed as the SEC champion, Oregon the No. 2 seed as the Big Ten champ, Miami the No. 3 seed as the ACC champ and BYU the No. 4 seed as the Big 12 champ.

Meanwhile, the teams seeded five through 12 will play each other in the first round on the home field of the higher-ranked team. Dinich’s latest projection has Clemson traveling to Alabama for one of the first-round matchups on campus.