Are Ohio State’s CFP Chances in Jeopardy After Another Ryan Day Big Game Loss?

By Kyle Golik

Geoffrey Chaucer is often credited as “The Father of English Literature” and is often credited with the well known idiom “all good things must come to an end". What came to an end in Autzen Stadium yesterday was Ohio State head coach Ryan Day ’s streak of beating all Big Ten teams not named Michigan.

Entering the game, Day had an overall record 41-3 in Big Ten conference games. Take away Day’s Michigan results he was 40-0 against the rest of the Big Ten.

Now that record sits at 40-1, still impressive, but it now only exacerbates a larger issue with Day’s Buckeyes: they can’t win the big game.

Here are some numbers to chew on:

• 1-3 versus Michigan, including the first three-game losing streak in the series since the John Cooper era
• 2-7 overall against teams ranked in the Top 5, the victories came in the season opener in 2022 against Notre Dame and in the 2020 season in the CFP Semifinal against Clemson. Day is 1-7 against College Football Playoff Teams ranked in the Top 5 and overall 8-8 record against Top 10 teams.
• 2-4 overall record in bowls and College Football Playoff Games
• Since the 2021 Michigan loss, 5-6 overall against ranked opponents

When you compare these same variables against what his predecessor Urban Meyer achieved, you can quickly see why there is uneasiness amongst Ohio State fans:

• 7-0 record as head coach at Ohio State against Michigan
• 6-2 overall record against Top 5 ranked teams. His only losses came in 2015 against Michigan State in the regular season and the 2016 College Football Playoff Semifinal against Clemson.
• 13-5 overall record against Top 10 teams
• 5-2 record in bowls and College Football Playoff Games

Following the loss against Oregon, Day was asked if there was a theme to these big game losses:

“Well, obviously, we need to go back and figure out what the common theme was. There are a few things we could probably point to. I mean, there (were) some long throws down the field where they got behind us. There were some runs that split that weren’t fit correctly. There was more than just one thing.”

Day is correct, there are many factors to the losses and not a single thing to pick on a theme about it. When you begin to look at their last six losses against ranked opponents you begin to pick up what those themes are.

First, Ohio State loses the ground game battle every single time:

“I mean, that was a really big focus for us. If you look at their six losses, I think, in the last three years and you know in every one of those losses, their opponent outrushed them. So that was something that we were really focused on, that we had to come in here and be a more physical team, and we knew they were going to be hard to run against, but we also knew that we were never going to abandon the run and continue to focus on it, so that was a goal all week for us to outrush our opponent. And our guys did that tonight”.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning said after Oregon had a slight edge against Ohio State with a 155 to 141 advantage on the ground.

In the five previous defeats, the deficit is a bit more resounding where opponents averaged 207.8 rushing yards to the Buckeyes 106. Ohio State’s prized portal transfer Quinshon Judkins averaged 2.1 yards per rush, he was clearly not effective.

Next, Ohio State lost the turnover battle in five of the six losses, the only one they did not was the Peach Bowl loss to Georgia. Against Oregon, Judkins lost a first-quarter fumble that was recovered by Oregon defensive lineman Derrick Harmon, the game’s lone turnover.

“We hammer it home, we drill the heck out of it, and we talk about taking care of the football. To have the ball, turn the ball over right there in plus territory...that was a huge play in the game,” Day said of the turnover.

Another common theme, outside of the 2023 Cotton Bowl where Ohio State had six sacks led by EDGE rusher Jack Sawyer ’s three, Ohio State doesn’t create enough pressure to get to the quarterback. Entering the Oregon game, Ohio State was 12th in the nation and third in the Big Ten with 17 sacks on the season. Ohio State did not register a sack of Dillon Gabriel, who led the nation in completion percentage entering the game and completed two-thirds of his passes against a secondary that did not have any answers.

It might be hard to fathom, but these themes may have cost Ohio State more than just a game, potentially a chance in the College Football Playoffs.

That may seem odd to say, given one of the near certainties in life in recent memory is Ohio State defeating Penn State, which they visit Beaver Stadium on November 2. They also have a rejuvenated Indiana team that won’t be an easy out prior to hosting Michigan at the end of the season.

Considering how soft Ohio State’s out-of-conference slate was, the Buckeyes could ill afford to lose to Oregon. An 11-1 Ohio State team makes the College Football Playoffs without any reservation, at 10-2 it is more scrutinized and not as automatic. Get into the Big Ten Championship Game, win, and it makes all my points moot, but it seems the gap between Ohio State and the rest of the country has diminished in the last three seasons.

If Day somehow loses again to Michigan and somehow doesn’t make the playoffs, I can’t imagine a hotter seat in the nation than the one Day might have to sit on.