Kentucky failed the test in Week 7. Coming off the bye week, we saw a Kentucky team that played undisciplined and was unable to execute in a 20-13 loss to Vanderbilt. That has again put Mark Stoops and his football program in a hole.
The Wildcats sit at 3-3 (1-3) with five games remaining against top-25 teams in ESPN’s SP+ rankings . Things could get worse before they get better. Kentucky has shown us that they can play and compete with anyone in college football, but this team has also come up short in two big games at home in that same time.
One could say this is the second circle the wagons moment of the young season. How will Kentucky respond in Gainesville? We could learn something about this program’s culture in The Swamp.
KSR’s Monday Huddle is beginning the week by looking at what comes next for this football program.
First Down: Let’s talk about the offense
Mark Stoops hired Boise State offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan to replace Liam Coen in the offseason. Hamdan inherited a tricky situation. Kentucky needed a new quarterback, lost an All-SEC tailback who scored 21 total touchdowns, the offensive line was a major work in progress, and a staffing change was made at wide receiver. There were a lot of moving parts.
Despite all of the new, the season has reached the halfway point and this football team needs more from the offense. The data can tell us a story.
- Points Per Drive: 2.13 (No. 73 overall)
- Yards Per Play: 5.11 (No. 110 overall)
- Success Rate: 44.4% (No. 46 overall)
- EPA/Play: -0.03 (No. 91 overall)
- Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 55.56% (No. 98 overall)
The Wildcats have had their moments in the efficiency department but this unit is struggling to create explosive plays and finish drives. We have seen Kentucky play four SEC games and the offense has scored four total touchdowns on 67 snaps per game. Hamdan has helped fix the slow pace of play problem and has found more efficiency but the explosive plays have all but disappeared and Kentucky certainly misses Ray Davis in the red zone. Facing a bad Vanderbilt defense, Kentucky’s finishing drive inefficiency showed up in a big way and explosive plays were nowhere to be found.
Remaining on the schedule will be top-10 Tennessee and Texas defenses. Auburn, Florida, and Louisville are a tier or two behind that but each is better than Vanderbilt. This football team will need to score more than 20 points to win games. The offense will face some pressure over the next half of the season.
In Week 8, Kentucky will face a Florida defense that was gutted by Miami and Texas A&M but has played good football after the bye week giving UCF and Tennessee some issues. Kentucky’s offense faces another tough challenge this week.
Second Down: A completely different challenge for Kentucky’s defense
Vanderbilt forces opponents to play a different brand of football. The Commodores are utilizing what might as well be considered an extension of the triple option offense that is great at shrinking games and creating a ton of third-and-short situations. Kentucky had some struggles on defense against Vandy’s ball-control philosophy.
Kentucky will play a more traditional game on Saturday night at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Billy Napier ‘s third offense at Florida ranks No. 46 in points per drive (2.61) and has traditional balance ranking inside the top 50 in both rushing and passing success rate. Florida’s tailbacks are rushing for 123 yards per game on 24 attempts. Florida’s passing attack is averaging over nine yards per attempt on 28.5 pass attempts per game. Napier’s unit wants true balance and will look to attack Kentucky that way.
The Wildcats will not be asked to defend a complex option attack with numerous fakes and a unique passing game structure this week. Instead, Brad White ‘s defense will get back to playing against what they’ve played against all season. This should be a good things.
In Saturday’s overtime loss to Tennessee, starting quarterback Graham Mertz left the game with a non-contact injury and was seen using crutches on the sideline. The super senior’s status has not been made clear for Week 8 yet but it seems that five-star true freshman DJ Lagway will be making his second career start. Lagway enters the contest with some big numbers (10.6 yards per attempt on 72 passes) but Miami, Texas A&M, and Tennessee each held the quarterback under six yards per attempt and a 50 percent completion rate. Florida is likely more explosive with Lagway but this offense will lose some down-to-down efficiency without Mertz.
If the game becomes a slugfest, Kentucky has shown us that this defense can get the clamps out and totally slow down a traditional offense.
In the humbling 31-6 home loss to South Carolina, Kentucky committed 11 penalties for 63 yards. After that game, we saw Kentucky regroup and play well three weeks in a row committing only 13 total penalties. That run completely went away against Vanderbilt.
In Saturday’s loss, Kentucky recorded a season-high in penalties (12) and penalty yards (105). This was the highest total since UK had 14 penalties for 122 yards in last season’s humbling 38-21 home loss to Missouri. If the flags do not get cleaned up some more losses will be on the way.
Odds are probably high that we do not see another flag party but playing clean doesn’t always mean no penalties. Kentucky clearly failed to execute in all three phases against Vanderbilt. That must change moving forward. The Wildcats showed that they didn’t handle success very well after the Ole Miss, but we know this team can respond to adversity. However, how many times can you keep getting off the mat after a humbling loss?
There is still a lot of football left to be played this season but Kentucky is currently on pace to play Louisville in the season finale needing a win to secure bowl eligibility. That would be a clear step back for the program. The fact of the matter is that this program is 17-15 since beating Iowa in the Citrus Bowl with a ton of home losses and a fair share of disappointing performances. The trend lines are not great right now.
In the past, we’ve seen Kentucky’s culture shine in adverse moments as Kentucky has been able to rally and play good football for in a short window. Can this team do that again? Saturday could tell us how the rest of the season could go.
Playing clean is needed but this football organization is slipping and needs a turnaround. Another win in the Florida series could get the train back on the tracks but a loss could lead to a disastrous October.
The week ahead at KSR
The fifth conference game of the season has arrived, and KSR will provide the Big Blue Nation with in-depth pregame content from now until kickoff arrives on Saturday night in the Sunshine State.
We will have full coverage of Mark Stoops ’ press conference on Monday afternoon. From there, practice reports and podcasts will take over as Saturday approaches. Our first availability report of the week will drop on Wednesday where we will learn the status of tailback Chip Trayanum , cornerback Maxwell Hairston , and Florida quarterback Graham Mertz.
Over at KSR+ , our in-depth scouting report on Florida will go live on Thursday along with some more pregame content. A big road game that could save or sink the season has arrived in Week 8.
Want more Kentucky football intel? Join KSR Plus for the most comprehensive coverage of the Cats on the internet. With a KSR membership, you get access to bonus content and KSBoard, KSR’s message board, to chat with fellow Cats fans and get exclusive scoop.
An important October got off to a bad start for the Kentucky football program. Will this team get off the mat again after some more in-season adversity? We will find out in The Swamp.
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